The Trump impeachment inquiry is underway

[KleinerKiller]

After a long period of stalling and debating, Nancy Pelosi has announced the beginning of an official impeachment inquiry for Donald Trump, following a whistleblower report that Trump recently tried to use the withholding of U.S. military aid to Ukraine as leverage for the Ukrainian president to investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

...

*deep breath*



AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!

Anywho, with that out of my system, this finally makes Trump the third U.S. president ever to enter official impeachment proceedings (after committing countless impeachable offenses since entering office, but hey, the rules only matter sometimes). I'm under no illusion that McConnell will allow the procedure to move past the Senate, but this is a huge black mark on the administration visible for all to see, and hopefully it will get dragged out well into the election year. Will it mobilize his base to the voting booths in greater numbers than ever before to fight for Dear Leader's innocence? Yes. Will it also tip the scales of everyone else who could possibly be swayed against him? God willing.

We stand on the precipice of history in the making, my friends, no matter what happens in the upcoming days.

[Absentia]

A few details:

After a long period of stalling and debating, Nancy Pelosi has announced the beginning of an official impeachment inquiry for Donald Trump, following a whistleblower report that Trump recently tried to use the withholding of U.S. military aid to Ukraine as leverage for the Ukrainian president to investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

Technically, the House Judiciary Committee had already announced that their investigations related to the Mueller Report material had an eye towards possible impeachment, so this isn't that big of a procedural leap. The major difference is that Pelosi et al. are pushing the Ukraine affair a lot harder.

this finally makes Trump the third U.S. president ever to enter official impeachment proceedings (after committing countless impeachable offenses since entering office, but hey, the rules only matter sometimes).

Fourth. Andrew Johnson, Nixon, and Clinton all got this far. Nixon resigned while the Articles of Impeachment were being hammered out, but the investigation had very much been underway.

I'm under no illusion that McConnell will allow the procedure to move past the Senate, but this is a huge black mark on the administration visible for all to see, and hopefully it will get dragged out well into the election year.

This isn't something that McConnell can just block at the procedural level. The Constitution requires that the Senate hear the case and vote on removal if the House votes to impeach. I don't think there's much chance that the vote would be successful, but it's not because the GOP caucus is that afraid of Mitch; they're afraid of getting primaried by a Trump supporter.

The good news for Democrats is that this puts several potentially vulnerable senators, perhaps even the Turtle King himself, in a bind. On one hand, they can vote for removal and feel the wrath of Trump supporters in their next primary, and on the other hand they can vote to acquit and risk losing support in the general election if the public thinks he's guilty.

And of course, whether the Senate GOP manages to find their conscience or not, I think it's important in the long run for Democrats to take a stand for government accountability. Sooner or later the electorate is going to get sick of Trumpist chaos, and when the backlash comes it will benefit the Dems to be the party of responsibility.

[tinyrick]

Republicans are going to point to the fact that impeachment proceedings can be brought on for ridiculous reasons, like Clinton's impeachment over a perjury trap involving his dick. They are going to specifically use that as an example without any sense of irony.

Edit: And their base will eat it up while simultaneously decrying Clinton's infedelity.

[Windy]

...Nice to see that no matter how many times TCS's political predictions are wrong it never hurts their confidence.

[Absentia]

...Nice to see that no matter how many times TCS's political predictions are wrong it never hurts their confidence.

So, my prediction was that this is going to die in the Senate and the most it will accomplish make a few Republicans look bad. Which part of this inevitable scenario would you like to bet on? You think it won't get out of the House? You think Susan Collins isn't going to sweat?

Surely you don't think the Senate will actually vote to remove.

[tinyrick]

...Nice to see that no matter how many times TCS's political predictions are wrong it never hurts their confidence.

So, my prediction was that this is going to die in the Senate and the most it will accomplish make a few Republicans look bad. Which part of this inevitable scenario would you like to bet on? You think it won't get out of the House? You think Susan Collins isn't going to sweat?

Surely you don't think the Senate will actually vote to remove.

I'd like to add to this prediction. When the Senate doesn't remove Trump from office, he'll send a tweet from his toilet that the Senate gave him a full exoneration of all the crimes he totally didn't commit.

When he doesn't win re-election, he'll say it was rigged by the Democrats, despite the fact that he chose the head of the Federal Election Commision to make sure elections weren't subject to interference.

In the period between November 3, 2020, and January 20th, he will call for acts of violence against liberals, which will disproportionately affect black and Mexican neighborhoods.

[Windy]

...Nice to see that no matter how many times TCS's political predictions are wrong it never hurts their confidence.

So, my prediction was that this is going to die in the Senate and the most it will accomplish make a few Republicans look bad. Which part of this inevitable scenario would you like to bet on? You think it won't get out of the House? You think Susan Collins isn't going to sweat?

Surely you don't think the Senate will actually vote to remove.

It's not going to make the Republicans look bad because no one cares anymore. Everyone who was going to pick a side has already picked one. Anyone who trusts the corporate elite already thinks Trump is literally Hitler, and anyone who doesn't, well this won't mean anything for them. This isn't 2015 anymore, get with the times grandpa!

[NathanLoiselle]

I don't trust the corporate elite (that includes you Tess!) and I think Trump is Hitler. Literally!! He just tanned himself, put on a wig and gained weight! Also he shaved off his silly, silly mustache.

Anyways, does this mean that I'm on my own side? Will it win? And most importantly, is there chocolate?

[tinyrick]

Today I learned the best way to stick it to the corporate elite is by lowering the corporate tax rate from 39% to 21% so they can use that money to issue a round of stock buybacks to inflate the price of their stocks and make themselves even richer. We sure showed those corporate elites what's what I tells ya.

[Absentia]

It's not going to make the Republicans look bad because no one cares anymore. Everyone who was going to pick a side has already picked one. Anyone who trusts the corporate elite already thinks Trump is literally Hitler, and anyone who doesn't, well this won't mean anything for them. This isn't 2015 anymore, get with the times grandpa!

Believe it or not, there are still people who claim that they're going to vote in 2020 and pick "Not Sure" in opinion polls about Trump and the election. They're a small minority, but they do exist, and elections are won and lost at the margins. There are also (admittedly difficult to predict) turnout effects to consider.

Political partisans tend to view every new event as the tipping point where everyone must realize that they were right all along. You are right to be highly skeptical of this kind of thinking, but don't take it to the opposite extreme. The fence sitters are out there, even if they don't usually make a lot of noise.

[IamNotCreepy]

The whistleblower complaint can be read here.

I've read it, and things are not pretty. There appears to have been an extensive cover up by White House officials on this.

Heads are going to roll (hopefully).

[Windy]

Today I learned the best way to stick it to the corporate elite is by lowering the corporate tax rate from 39% to 21% so they can use that money to issue a round of stock buybacks to inflate the price of their stocks and make themselves even richer. We sure showed those corporate elites what's what I tells ya.

Wow that sounds great for the corporate elite, that must mean they're all backing Trump right??? How nice of the corporate media owned by the corporate elite to tell you how bad it is that Trump is giving the corporate elite tax cuts!!!

Tell me, has this obsession with political issues that don't involve you made your life better in any way whatsoever? Is the thrill of throwing away your life for the corporate elite worth ruining all your relationships and developing stress disorders?

[tinyrick]

Today I learned the best way to stick it to the corporate elite is by lowering the corporate tax rate from 39% to 21% so they can use that money to issue a round of stock buybacks to inflate the price of their stocks and make themselves even richer. We sure showed those corporate elites what's what I tells ya.

Wow that sounds great for the corporate elite, that must mean they're all backing Trump right??? How nice of the corporate media owned by the corporate elite to tell you how bad it is that Trump is giving the corporate elite tax cuts!!!

Tell me, has this obsession with political issues that don't involve you made your life better in any way whatsoever? Is the thrill of throwing away your life for the corporate elite worth ruining all your relationships and developing stress disorders?

Last year my significant other died due to health problems that were largely untreated due to her only being able to get emergency room healthcare. She was 29 years old. Those tax cuts are meant to "Starve the Beast." Those tax cuts are meant to explode the deficit so rich cunts can argue that we need to make cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security in order to balance the budget. My SO depended on Medicaid when she finally got it after 2 years of trying. So these issues do affect me. So you know what? Fuck you! What issues do you care about? What issue do you care about so much that it's bigger than wanting to keep a loved one alive so she can enjoy her 30s? Please tell me what that issue is? I'd love to hear it.

[Absentia]

Let's stay on topic and not make this personal, please.

[Absentia]

With that out of the way, I'd like you to address something, Windy:

Earlier you made a sarcastic reference to people thinking Trump is "literally Hitler", and now you say that caring about politics is wasting your life. So I'm wondering if you would care if Trump was literally Hitler, murdering millions of people in cold blood and starting wars of aggression. Or would you say that all those dead people don't affect you? Because first they came for the socialists, and if you didn't speak out because you're not a socialist, well, you know how the rest of the story goes.

If you agree that mass murder and genocide are bad and worth opposing, of course, then you admit that there is some point where government misconduct becomes worth struggling against, and we're just arguing about where the line is.

And if you'd rather embrace the "let Hitler do what he wants, I'm looking out for number one" philosophy, I hope you won't mind if I say that we're all better off because enough people rejected that argument 80 years ago.