by cmsellers » Mon Jun 12, 2017 3:16 am
So a little background:
Puerto Rico has held several referendums on becoming a state. The percent voting for continuing the status quo has always exceeded the percent voting for statehood, but the margin has been narrower each time. There's a small, fairly consistent minority that wants either independence or a Compact of Free Association, which is basically independence with benefits.
The last time they voted, in 2012, the pro-statehood governor came up with a little trick. There would be a two-part option. First question would be: do you want to continue the status quo? Pro-statehood and pro-independence voters would together win on that question. Second question would be: do you want to be a state, have a CFA, or be fully independent. Since pro-statehood voters easily outnumber supporters of both options, statehood would win even if the pro-commonwealth faction cast blank ballots, which is exactly what happened. In fact, votes for statehood on the second round were outnumbers by votes for the SQ on the first. But politicians in the mainland took one look at the chicanery involved and said "come back when a clear and convincing majority favors statehood."
The pro-statehood governor was ousted as a result of that gambit, but a new pro-statehood governor came to power in 2016 and said "fuck it, I'm holding an election with only statehood and independence as options." Surprisingly, the Trump administration showed some sense, and made the government of Puerto Rico insert an option for the SQ as well. However the ballot questions was worded in such a way that every party opposed to statehood still called for a boycott.
Now, Puerto Rico would very clearly be better off under statehood. Traditionally, the federal government gave all kinds of tax breaks to encourage businesses to invest in Puerto Rico, but W. dismantled them. The income tax exemption remains, but most Puerto Ricans would not pay much if any income tax anyways, and by not being eligible to file returns, a whole lot of them miss out on the Earned Income Tax Credit. Because of territorial status, they also get a ton less funding for Medicare and Medicaid, and do not have the same options when it comes to their debt that states do. And, of course, they're passing up two senators and three representatives who would give them a voice in Washington. But young Puerto Ricans have a tendency to leave the island, meaning that it's increasingly full of cranky old people who bitterly oppose statehood because they've always done so, and hey, maybe the sweet deal they used to have will return.
It will be interesting to see what happens here. Congress ignored the last referendum for being undemocratic, but this one was a straight-up, three-way race. Personally I think that the governor should have used more neutral wording, but also that the opposition should have sucked it up and voted. If I were a Congressperson, I would push for Puerto Rico to be admitted, but it's a rather tough choice.
And remember, Republicans still control Congress. Statehood means adding five House seats and two Senate Seats which are fairly reliably Democratic, admitting a state where most people don't speak English well (it's mandatory in schools, but then so is Irish in Ireland; ask Logan how that's working out), and most worryingly: giving lots more money to poor people. If Trump weren't president I'd say there's no chance of it being admitted this go-round, but after Trump I suppose anything is possible.