Kate, I know you don't like WaPo, but you may like
this article by Megan McArdle, which is saying basically the same things you are.
I agree that the second accusation is flimsy. As you note, memory is fallable. It sounds to me like Ramirez had a memory that was maybe Kavanaugh, and in trying to determine if it was, inadvertently reinforced the idea that it was. I have to give her credit for being honest about it though, rather than feigning certainty. Which if Mark Judge's memoires are true, is more than can be said for Kavanaugh himself.
Personally, I am waiting on the promised third accuser Avenatti says he has, on the police report, and on anyone else who may come forward. My rule of thumb has been three or four independent and consistent accusations before I believe someone is a sexual predator. And while I badly want to see Kavanaugh not confirmed for other reasons, I am standing by that here. I am concerned at how determined the GOP seems to be to rush this though, and left messages with the offices of both my GOP senators telling them as much.
The thing that pisses me off is all the people who are asking "why did these women wait so long to come forward?" Assuming her story is true, Ford waited because it was a traumatic experience and she expected to get a lot of hate for coming forward, she waited until his confirmation seemed likely. Ramirez waited because she wasn't sure of her memory and also expected to get a lot of hate. I expect anyone else who comes forward similarly was both traumatized and expected not to be believed, giving them little reason to relive the trauma and suffer death threats from strangers. "Why did she wait?" is not a question that people should be asking in 2018.