Democratic Primary 2020

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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Cobra-D » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:20 am

cmsellers wrote:Harris does have a clear weakness, though, and it's similar to the one that tripped up Wendy Davis (an one of the many problems with Hillary Clinton), but worse. She got her start in politics by sleeping with a more powerful man, a married black machine boss who gave her her first two political jobs.

Other Democrats almost certainly won't use this against her, but their PACs might, or it might spread through word-of-mouth. I'm doing my part on this last front because Republican PACs and Donald Trump will use it, because we still have a double standard when it comes to adultery and nepotism which means that it may be effective, and because it brought her down considerably in my own estimation.


That thought came to me as well, not sure what the best way to handle it would be however, if I was in that position and that question arose I would simply say:

"I cannot comment on that right now however, if the people wish for me to respond i will gladly do so when the president is ready to release a joint statement on any misdoings we mutually have been accused of." Followed by an exit dab to lock down the youth vote.

Also I take issue with you saying the rock wouldn't win, the rock would totally win, he's the most electrifying man in the world right now. Not to mention he's smart, quick witted, and oozes charisma that you almost drown in it.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:43 am

cmsellers wrote:Harris does have a clear weakness, though, and it's similar to the one that tripped up Wendy Davis (an one of the many problems with Hillary Clinton), but worse. She got her start in politics by sleeping with a more powerful man, a married black machine boss who gave her her first two political jobs.

Other Democrats almost certainly won't use this against her, but their PACs might, or it might spread through word-of-mouth. I'm doing my part on this last front because Republican PACs and Donald Trump will use it, because we still have a double standard when it comes to adultery and nepotism which means that it may be effective, and because it brought her down considerably in my own estimation.


I don't think it'd be that effective, mostly because Trump's not really one to talk on that front, and it wouldn't look too savory for him to be beating up on her for that after what he said to Gillibrand and his whole track record of sexist comments. It's not going to backfire on him, mind you, but it'd be very easy to fight it to a draw by attacking the messenger.

Plus, you're like...the only person I've ever heard bring that up. Not to say you're making it up or anything, but this isn't a thing even I remembered until you brought it up, and the only reason I knew it in the first place was because you mentioned it the first time. I say all that to say that I don't think that it's going to be as easy to hit her with nepotism or such as it was Clinton. Hillary was too easy to hit with it because of decades of scandals, her foundation, etc...and I don't think it'd stick quite as quickly to Harris. You have like...what is it, three months between the conventions and the general election? That's not really enough time to powerfully build that case.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Piter Lauchy » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:44 am

Windy wrote:I vote for whatever's the least likely outcome.

But how are you going to rub our faces in your being right as always, then?
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby gisambards » Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:13 am

Regarding the potential Harris scandal, I agree with Doods in that I don't think it'll be an issue. I think it will probably come up, especially in the general if she's the Democrat candidate, but if she proves herself as competent and engaging then I think it'll mostly be forgotten about because it was a long time ago and she's clearly worked to get where she is currently. If it comes up in the primary, I think it'll be quickly superseded in the headlines by another candidate saying something stupid or another relatively minor scandal - it's not something the media will latch on to.

I think the person most likely to get sunk by a scandal relating to their past behaviour is actually Biden (but even then I don't think it's that likely, and I hope it doesn't because right now, even though Harris has become my most-likely, Biden is still my favourite) - I don't think the handsiness on its own will do much damage at all, but an accusation of groping (even if unfounded) would probably hurt him a lot.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby cmsellers » Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:43 pm

So Amy Klobuchar's name has come up occasionally. My view before was that she was bit further left than I'd like but seems OK. However she co-signed an absolutely idiotic letter asking search engines to remove the ability for people to search for illegal drugs. At least she's not trying to pass a law, which would be stupid and unconstitutional, but this dramatically lowers my opinion of her.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:24 pm

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say letter or no letter, Amy Klobuchar stood no chance of winning the primary anyways.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby JamishT » Fri Mar 09, 2018 3:52 am

Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:I'm gonna go out on a limb and say letter or no letter, Amy Klobuchar stood no chance of winning the primary anyways.


If she mounted a write in campaign, it would lessen her chances even further.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Marcuse » Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:55 pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/43355674

Bernie can still win!!!
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Crimson847 » Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:37 pm

Yeah, Bernie is definitely running unless he dies before 2020, and maybe even then. Matthew Yglesias laid out the case quite well:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... nders-2020
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby cmsellers » Wed May 16, 2018 9:32 pm

Three names I hadn't considered but I think I'd be very happy with, as a result of this FiveThirtyEight chat:

Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin.
I think Senator Baldwin is my new second choice. Unlike Tammy Duckworth she's not a Trump tar baby (she's gay rather than a disabled veteran), but she's still a strong choice, in that she's an unobjectionable Midwestern senator. I'm trying to decided whether I like her or Klobuchar better. Klobuchar is a better speaker, but also further left.

Senator Jon Tester of Montana
Coming from the Mountain West, he's pro-gun and a moderate on economic issues. He's also not especially a compelling speaker, but he's the ranking Democrat on the Veterans Affairs Committee. The only issue I have with him personally is that he opposed the DREAM ACt

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg
He was mentioned twice in the comments, though not in the article itself. A gay Millennial veteran who gave a TED talk. He's no Obama in terms of his speaking ability, but he's still a decent speaker.

I think at this point, in terms of how much I'd like them to be the Democratic nominee, by which I mean how much I like them and how much I like their chances in the general, I'd say my ratings are as follows:

  1. Tammy Duckworth
  2. Tammy Baldwin
  3. Amy Klobuchar
  4. Tulsi Gabbard
  5. Pete Buttigieg
  6. Julian Castro
  7. John Tester
  8. Jason Kander
  9. Joe Biden
  10. Kirsten Gillibrand
  11. Jeff Merkley
  12. Corey Booker
  13. Deval Patrick
  14. Kamala Harris
  15. Bernie Sanders
The last six names (Gillbrand on down) I think have a good chance of pulling defeat from the jaws of victory but still would find them acceptable as president if they won. Sanders I think is the most likely of those six to win the general (probably the primary too), but given he'd probably have a Democratic Congress if he won, I'd be much less OK with the idea him as president than I was in 2016.

Elizabeth Warren I'd probably vote for unenthusiastically in the general while being convinced she'd lose and probably make a poor president if she'd win. Any celebrity/businessperson candidate (including Oprah, Zuckerberg, Mark Cuban, and Michelle) I'd absolutely refuse to vote for while bitching even more than I did when the Dems coronated Hillary. Sherrod Brown remains my least favorite candidate; he's the only hopeful who's come up where I'm legit not sure if I'd be more upset at him or Trump winning.

Anyone else I haven't mentioned it's because I either don't have even the faintest opinion on them or think there's literally zero chance of them running. If they did run, Ron Wyden or Zoe Loefgren would beat out even Tammy Duckworth on my list, because I love their understanding of technology, which is something vanishingly rare in politicians, but I think there is zero chance of either of them running.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Crimson847 » Thu May 17, 2018 12:36 am

I don't see Tester being a serious candidate, in the sense that he'd have any chance of winning. The Democratic base would nominate Hillary again before they'd go for a "Trump enabler".

At any rate, I don't really have a list of preferred candidates at this point, just a couple candidates I absolutely don't want. Starting with Gillibrand.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby cmsellers » Thu May 17, 2018 2:52 am

Compared to his state, Tester is the most anti-Trump Democrat in the Senate.

I'm not a fan of Gillibrand either. I listed literally every Democrat who I thought might run that I'm fairly certain I'd still vote for in the general in that list. Since Elizabeth Warren, Sherrod Brown, and at least one celebrity seem likely to run, it's more a list of the people I'd vote for to stop a candidate I'd be truly unhappy with.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Crimson847 » Thu May 17, 2018 4:45 am

cmsellers wrote:Compared to his state, Tester is the most anti-Trump Democrat in the Senate.


Which is the only reason he's even tolerated--the base knows that it's either him or a blood-red Republican in that seat. The same is not true of the presidency, at least not at the primary stage.

I'm not a fan of Gillibrand either. I listed literally every Democrat who I thought might run that I'm fairly certain I'd still vote for in the general in that list. Since Elizabeth Warren, Sherrod Brown, and at least one celebrity seem likely to run, it's more a list of the people I'd vote for to stop a candidate I'd be truly unhappy with.


What's your issue with Brown? I know why you don't like Warren, but I don't think I've heard you talk about Brown before.
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"If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them; but the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?"
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Crimson847 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:09 pm

https://www.vox.com/2018/6/16/17459246/ ... candidates

Democrats agree that Donald Trump’s history of bragging about groping and assaulting women is unacceptable, but they don’t agree about how to deal with it in 2020.

The tension has spilled into the open in the ongoing debate about Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s role in galvanizing Senate Democrats to call for Sen. Al Franken to step down over misconduct. Even white college-educated women, Hillary Clinton’s biggest supporters, are divided.

“We loved him,” Marsha Pearcy, 58, said sadly to Gillibrand at a private event for professional women in Washington on Tuesday night. Pearcy barely finished saying Franken’s name when quiet murmurs and palpable tension spread across the room of dozens of mostly white and mostly 20- and 30-something women. ...

At the closed Washington event, Gillibrand took in Pearcy’s comments and the mood of the room. “The challenge for me personally was [Franken] had eight allegations against him, seven of them credible.”

She described how she’d worked on sexual assault for years, including taking on top brass from her seat on the Senate Armed Services Committee for how they handle cases in the military. How could she give Franken a pass just because he’s her friend? “My silence was unacceptable.”

“The eighth [woman] happened to be a House staffer,” Gillibrand went on. “If I can’t stand up for someone who works in my own place of business, who can I?”

She imagined trying to justify her decision to her teenage son, musing about telling him it’s okay to grab a woman’s butt without her consent, but not her breast. The crowd laughed. Her real words to her son: “It’s not okay for you. It’s not okay for Sen. Franken. It’s not okay.”

Gillibrand’s explanation didn’t change Pearcy’s mind, who said after the event. “Maybe [Gillibrand] really does feel like we can’t sit back,” Pearcy said. “But the other party wouldn’t have.”

Her 19-year-old daughter pleaded with her mother. “They’re trying to change society,” Sophie Sperduto said.

“But Trump could change the republic,” Pearcy fired back to her daughter, exasperated. “We’re in a crisis.”


Okay, fine, there is indeed one way I could be persuaded to vote for Gillibrand in the primary: if the party turns this into a referendum on whether sexual assault is wrong even when popular Democrats do it.
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"If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them; but the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?"
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby cmsellers » Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:28 am

Crimson847 wrote:What's your issue with Brown? I know why you don't like Warren, but I don't think I've heard you talk about Brown before.

I actually dislike Brown, as opposed to Warren, who I just don't think could beat Trump. My issue with Brown is that he's an avowed protectionist, which isn't all that unusual for Midwestern Democrats but is something I absolutely cannot abide.
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