cmsellers wrote:As I said on Discord, the thing I'm curious about is who people are going to blame for this.
“Well, if you say who gets fired it always has to be the top,” Trump said. “I mean, problems start from the top and they have to get solved from the top and the president’s the leader. And he’s got to get everybody in a room and he’s got to lead.”
Aquila89 wrote: So I'm assuming he'll be consistent and take full responsibility.
Bromo wrote:But seriously, since when has Trump ever been consistent, besides being consistently stupid?
Bromo wrote:But seriously, since when has Trump ever been consistent, besides being consistently stupid?
cmsellers wrote:Doods, what Kate said was that she expected people to blame whichever side they didn't vote for. The numbers are me and they're rather rough. Trump's disapproval ratings have never fallen below forty, while his approval ratings haven't been above it for a year. However since the polls include non-voters, who disproportionately don't like Trump, and they don't actually matter (if you want your opinion to matter, fucking vote), I'm rounding things in his favor.
The main point I was trying to make is that if Kate is right and people split blame based on who they voted for, that would actually help Trump's numbers. That would be consistent with previous government shutdowns, but since those shutdowns happened under divided governments it would also be irrational behavior. And while people are often irrational it wouldn't surprise me, but I wouldn't bank on it.
One think I implied but didn't say: this seems to be a risky move for the Democrats. I'm incredibly skeptical that this shutdown will cut into his floor, which seems to be about three points below where he's polling now (he seems to have gotten a very slight boost from the tax bill). So best-case scenario is Trump loses three points. But it's entirely possible that people will blame both parties equally, and if that happens the relative favorability of the GOP to the Dems could climb, which is very bad for their odds of taking either house of Congress.
Terry Pratchett wrote:The trouble with having an open mind, of course, is that people will insist on coming along and trying to put things in it.
aviel wrote:Technically, Republicans could get rid of the filibuster, but unless you're advocating for that, I don't think it's fair to say they have complete control over the process.
aviel wrote:The blame game gets complicated here when considering whether Democrats' justifications are stronger than Republican ones. I tend to hold the view that, in general, a shutdown is an illegitimate means of pursuing other legislative goals. Does the fact that the White House reneged on its promises multiple times change that calculation? I'm not sure. Hopefully the whole thing will be over in a couple of days anyway.
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