http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/04/26 ... 70838.html
The White House is telling U.S. media that it's mulling a notice of withdrawal from NAFTA, applying shock treatment on other parties to get cracking on negotiations under the threat of having the seminal trade deal obliterated.
Various media say Trump is considering detonating the trade equivalent of a nuclear option: An executive order to withdraw from the trade agreement, which would instill fear in members of Congress, industry and Canadian and Mexican trade negotiators.
The administration has complained lately that American lawmakers are dragging their feet on naming a trade czar and excessively slow in approving the 90-day legal notice to kick off negotiations.
Which was walked-back within hours because Trump had a couple of phone calls.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/no-nafta ... -1.3387133?
U.S. President Donald Trump swore off plans to cancel the North American Free Trade Agreement on Wednesday, after a day rife with speculation that he could be on the verge of threatening to obliterate the seminal trade deal.
The president made the announcement at the end of a dramatic day following an evening phone chat Wednesday with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, followed by another call with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto.
Trump sounded satisfied that his peers had agreed to negotiate swiftly. This has been a top concern of Trump's administration, which has expressed frustration over the pace.
It doesn't seem to be clear if Trump can issue an executive order to withdraw from NAFTA, because even a statement like, "I'm going to tear it up" is woefully over-simplistic. Obviously, it would be an economic shock felt throughout North America. Most seem to agree that this is Trump trying to light a fire under Congress since he feels they are dragging their feet. It is also related to Trump's seeming complete randomness combined with being oblivious to consequences; a drunkard's walk as negotiating strategy.
This article nicely sums-up Trump's recent animosity toward Canada:
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trump-s- ... -1.3383709
The issues around dairy and softwood lumber are headache-inducing in their complexity. On dairy, Canada has a managed system which controls production levels. It is far from perfect, but it works, for the most part. The US has a subsidy program, and a production problem in-that far too much dairy is produced. Adding to the fun, it's not really about milk (Canada doesn't allow growth hormones, for example) but also about products made from milk which are used for dairy product production. Generally, the woes of American dairy producers aren't being helped by Canada, but Canada isn't the root of the problem.
On softwood lumber, the issue has been lingering for decades. The USA tends to hold that Canada subsidizes the industry and dumps product in the American market. International trade organizations, like the WTO, have rarely ruled in favour of the USA on this, not that it matters that much. In the end, Trump has imposed an average 20% tariff. Predictably, that has led to things like the Premier of British Columbia advocating for a ban on thermal coal exports through British Columbia.
“We had an obligation to be good trading partners with our trading partners in the United States. They are no longer good trading partners to Canada, so that means that we’re free to make sure that we ban filthy thermal coal from B.C. ports. And I’m hoping that the federal government will support us in doing that,” Ms. Clark said.
Ms. Clark – who had one day earlier urged calm amid the softwood lumber dispute and said “cooler heads need to prevail” – said she had long considered the ban and felt requesting it was the right thing to do given thermal coal’s environmental effects.
Yup, Trump's favourite hydrocarbon, and it's all nicely wrapped in an environmental justification, and just happens to be being proposed by the Premier of the province which will suffer the most from the softwood lumbar tariff.
Ms. Clark said thermal coal is the most carbon dioxide-intensive form of conventional fossil-fuel energy production and banning its transport would be consistent with B.C.’s and Ottawa’s efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.
She said Washington, Oregon and California have already made commitments to eliminate the use of coal as a source of electricity and every proposed coal export facility on the U.S. West Coast over the past five years has been rejected or withdrawn.
If the federal government does not consider her request appropriate, Ms. Clark said, “British Columbia will use the tools we have at our disposal to discourage the shipping of thermal coal through British Columbia.”
Clark also happens to be in an election year (May 9th, to be exact).
Trump is frustrated with the pace, and he's trying to cram-in as much as possible before Saturday (the 100 day mark, which he either does or doesn't deeply care about). I don't think he fully appreciates the complexity of agreements like NAFTA, and therefore has no clue about inevitable unintended consequences of tossing around ideas like trying to pull-out of NAFTA altogether.
Hell, does anyone have any idea what Trump wants to do to get "the best deal"?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/pol ... e33715250/
Behind the scenes, Mr. Trump’s inner circle disagrees about what demands to make in NAFTA renegotiations, The Globe’s Adrian Morrow explains. One side wants an enhanced NAFTA that would make cross-border business easier for corporations, while others – including chief strategist Steven Bannon, who drafted the abortive executive order along with National Trade Council director Peter Navarro – want protectionism. If the executive order had gone ahead, it could have ignited new conflict within the White House over trade policy.
There is a lot of information in, and linked from, that article.
It seems Trump has no clue. I doubt he could point to a single thing he wants to see changed, and explain the change he'd like to see and why, in NAFTA. He just knows he said he'd do something-something NAFTA sad! and is going to let the factions within his team duke it out (always a great way to approach international negotiations).