Insane True Statistics Laughing in the Face of Logic!

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Insane True Statistics Laughing in the Face of Logic!

Postby DamianaRaven » Tue May 19, 2015 4:07 pm

http://www.cracked.com/article_22432_6- ... magic.html

Carrie's our resident math expert - is #3 right, cause it doesn't feel right on an instinctive level. Also, did you enjoy the article?
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Last edited by Kate on Tue May 19, 2015 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Insane True Statistics Laughing in the Face of Logic!

Postby EstebanColberto » Tue May 19, 2015 4:32 pm

This is very related to the Gambler's Fallacy.

No matter how many times you flip a coin, the chances of the coin landing heads or tails is always 50-50. The coin can land on heads 5 times in a row, it's still 50-50 the next time you flip it. If you have 6 kids who are all girls, the chances of you having a son the next time are not radically increased. It's still 50-50. The probability of having 7 kids, all girls, is just really low.
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Re: Insane True Statistics Laughing in the Face of Logic!

Postby NathanLoiselle » Tue May 19, 2015 7:34 pm

But Mr. Colberto, you haven't taken genetics into account.
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Re: Insane True Statistics Laughing in the Face of Logic!

Postby A Warrior Bunny » Tue May 19, 2015 7:38 pm

I don't think the genetics of the coin alters how often it lands on heads or tails.
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Re: Insane True Statistics Laughing in the Face of Logic!

Postby CarrieVS » Tue May 19, 2015 8:36 pm

DamianaRaven wrote:Is #3 right


Yes.

The article compared it to the better-known Monty Hall problem.

You see, the thing is that if little Chad's parents have a boy and a girl, we know that Chad is the boy, so his sibling must be the girl. Essentially you're opening two 'doors' at once - much as with the Monty Hall problem, if you switch away from your original choice you are effectively opening both the doors you didn't choose and taking the best prize. You only get a goat if both of those doors had the two goats.

It doesn't feel right on an instinctive level.


Statistics rarely do. If any statistic ever seems intuitive, check your working.

Also, did you enjoy the article?


It was interesting.
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Re: Insane True Statistics Laughing in the Face of Logic!

Postby ShuaiGuy » Wed May 20, 2015 1:19 am

<Redacted>
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Re: Insane True Statistics Laughing in the Face of Logic!

Postby NathanLoiselle » Wed May 20, 2015 4:35 am

Of course coins have genetics! It's the kids who don't.
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Re: Insane True Statistics Laughing in the Face of Logic!

Postby jbobsully11 » Wed May 20, 2015 2:04 pm

I knew most of these, but the coin flip one was surprising, and further evidence toward my theory that probability and statistics are witchcraft.
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