Spaaaaaace Exploration and Human Progress

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Re: Spaaaaaace Exploration and Human Progress

Postby Marcuse » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:25 pm

satan_n_stuff wrote:
Marcuse wrote:I think that the problem with space colonisation outside the solar system is that it's more or less "throw people into the black and hope for the best". We'd have no way of even knowing if they were there, dead, or what for a long time. Even if we gave them tech to be able to speak to us in a reasonably quick fashion we'd be out of range to help or support them. It'd be more or less a suicide mission.

How exactly does this make it different from the rest of human history?


I'd have thought it was obvious how exploring a planet generally conducive to human life is different to exploring something billions of miles away that is distinctly hostile to human life, but okay.

The big major difference between exploring new land on Earth and exploring an exoplanet is that you'd experience significantly reduced opportunity to recoup losses and resource use. Say for example you're a sailor headed to the Indies, and you run short of food. There are options, even if they're unsuitable or slight, for resupply because all the land you might hit would have a very high likelihood of life being there and something, be it plant or animal, being edible. By contrast, an expedition into space has to take basically everything they might need and more besides at the start of the mission otherwise there's a negligible chance they will be able to recoup anything they use, down to breathable air, at all.

Basically it's different because of a markedly higher risk factor, as well as a vastly increased cost to start. Both of those things make it less likely we'd engage in large scale exploration of other planets until the costs came down, the risks were mitigated somehow, and we had ability to span the gap of distance to establish some kind of contemporaneous communication.
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Re: Spaaaaaace Exploration and Human Progress

Postby Absentia » Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:28 pm

Don't forget that the reason Spain and Portugal and England were so eager to send colonists to their likely doom is that there were powerful economic incentives (gold, spices, etc.) to doing so. Transporting resources between solar systems is unlikely to ever be more economical than manufacturing them "domestically", so extrasolar colonies are neither going to make anyone rich nor materially improve the lives of people back home.

In other words, what would be the point?
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Re: Spaaaaaace Exploration and Human Progress

Postby satan_n_stuff » Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:44 pm

Marcuse wrote:
satan_n_stuff wrote:
Marcuse wrote:I think that the problem with space colonisation outside the solar system is that it's more or less "throw people into the black and hope for the best". We'd have no way of even knowing if they were there, dead, or what for a long time. Even if we gave them tech to be able to speak to us in a reasonably quick fashion we'd be out of range to help or support them. It'd be more or less a suicide mission.

How exactly does this make it different from the rest of human history?


I'd have thought it was obvious how exploring a planet generally conducive to human life is different to exploring something billions of miles away that is distinctly hostile to human life, but okay.

The big major difference between exploring new land on Earth and exploring an exoplanet is that you'd experience significantly reduced opportunity to recoup losses and resource use. Say for example you're a sailor headed to the Indies, and you run short of food. There are options, even if they're unsuitable or slight, for resupply because all the land you might hit would have a very high likelihood of life being there and something, be it plant or animal, being edible. By contrast, an expedition into space has to take basically everything they might need and more besides at the start of the mission otherwise there's a negligible chance they will be able to recoup anything they use, down to breathable air, at all.

Basically it's different because of a markedly higher risk factor, as well as a vastly increased cost to start. Both of those things make it less likely we'd engage in large scale exploration of other planets until the costs came down, the risks were mitigated somehow, and we had ability to span the gap of distance to establish some kind of contemporaneous communication.

You're looking at history with the benefit of hindsight, early explorers had absolutely no idea if there actually was anything they could use or bring back over the horizon and if there was, whether or not they'd find it. You can't know all the risks in advance, they didn't and they went anyway.
Everything else is just a matter of scale and scale is insignificant in the long term.
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Re: Spaaaaaace Exploration and Human Progress

Postby Absentia » Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:11 am

satan_n_stuff wrote:Everything else is just a matter of scale and scale is insignificant in the long term.


That's not exactly true. There comes a point where matters of scale run into hard barriers of physics like the speed of light. We're talking about distances that are literally impossible to travel or even communicate across in any useful amount of time.
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Re: Spaaaaaace Exploration and Human Progress

Postby RatElemental » Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:27 am

I think there's also issues if we do find life on other planets when it comes to supplies, because it's very likely to be inedible to us just because of the chirality of its DNA and thus amino acids, assuming it even follows a vaguely similar form of biochemistry at all.

And then you get into the possibility of exobacteria, which would be the most likely form of exolife for us to encounter in the first place. Alien plague, anyone?
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Re: Spaaaaaace Exploration and Human Progress

Postby SandTea » Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:54 am

I'm reminded of the folk who say they are against things like chemicals and only consume organics. It is quite possible to use some alchemy chemistry to make stuff that is edible. The Marmite is people!. (Story about us turning human waste into food) I don't personally consider communication a problem especially if explorers would be able to use all sorts of whatnot to make into food. The same atoms are everywhere. It is possible we can suck food and water out of basically everything that exists.

I understand that some unexpected problem would always happen but that has never stopped us from doing crazy shit. I'm on the side of; someone says humans cant go somewhere, we say, hold my beer.
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Re: Spaaaaaace Exploration and Human Progress

Postby RatElemental » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:05 am

While it may be possible if you completely reconstruct the molecules, it would likely be prohibitively expensive without some kind of crazy future techno-witchcraft.

Then again interstellar travel is in the same boat (space ship?) so maybe they will have said witchcraft by the time they try this.

(Side note: I'm one of the people who find anyone claiming not to consume chemicals supremely annoying, being a former chem major who still has an active interest in the field)
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Re: Spaaaaaace Exploration and Human Progress

Postby IamNotCreepy » Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:45 pm

Absentia wrote:
satan_n_stuff wrote:Everything else is just a matter of scale and scale is insignificant in the long term.


That's not exactly true. There comes a point where matters of scale run into hard barriers of physics like the speed of light. We're talking about distances that are literally impossible to travel or even communicate across in any useful amount of time.


We don't know what hard barriers there are. Quantum entanglement may allow instant communication across vast distances, and there may be some way to achieve FTL travel. Even if it isn't, eventually technology will progress to the point where a one-way colony ship will be feasible.

The only limitation is human willingness, and as I said earlier, never discount the human frontier/explorer spirit.
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Re: Spaaaaaace Exploration and Human Progress

Postby Marcuse » Wed Jan 31, 2018 6:07 pm

You're looking at history with the benefit of hindsight,


With respect, so does everyone. That's why it's history.

early explorers had absolutely no idea if there actually was anything they could use or bring back over the horizon


But they had a fair idea that there was oxygen, and plants and some sort of ground somewhere. Lots of expeditions were speculative, but not to the point where they would have to consider how they would breathe.

and if there was, whether or not they'd find it.


I did point out that the difference here is one of degree. Just because I'm saying that interstellar space travel is more risky and more speculative in nature doesn't mean that early exploration didn't involve risk and speculation. You seem to be suggesting that I'm saying that, so I'm clarifying that I'm not. However, exploration within the terrestrial environment carries with it several certainties that don't exist elsewhere in the galaxy that make interstellar travel much much more of a risk and lessens the possibility of success to the point where I would consider it, much more than early exploration, to be akin to a suicidal punt into the unknown.

You can't know all the risks in advance, they didn't and they went anyway.


When did I suggest anyone ever could? Again, my point is about the magnitude of risks, costs and potential benefits.

Everything else is just a matter of scale and scale is insignificant in the long term.


I'm not sure what this is actually supposed to mean. I'm pretty sure that an undertaking that took 500 years to reach its destination would be significantly different in risks and costs than something closer that took 30 years to reach its destination. It seems like you're trying to draw equivalence between every exploration that's ever been done to try to equate ancient sea exploration with proposed interstellar colonisation. I don't agree that the two are as similar as a difference in scale, and I don't think that it's unreasonable to consider each thing as its own challenge with its own risks and costs.

Absentia wrote:Don't forget that the reason Spain and Portugal and England were so eager to send colonists to their likely doom is that there were powerful economic incentives (gold, spices, etc.) to doing so. Transporting resources between solar systems is unlikely to ever be more economical than manufacturing them "domestically", so extrasolar colonies are neither going to make anyone rich nor materially improve the lives of people back home.

In other words, what would be the point?


This is also raising an interesting point, motivation is another factor that varies from terrestrial exploration.
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Re: Spaaaaaace Exploration and Human Progress

Postby D-LOGAN » Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:22 pm

I absolutely guaruntee humans will colonize the cosmos.

How do I know? Cause I have the one thing none of you don't- KEEN INSIGHT INTO THE HUMAN SOUL.

We will. We absolutely will. No matter the difficulty. No matter the apparent lack of return. No matter the risks. No matter the benefits of just staying shacked up on this boring orb. We'll do it, because it's there.

The universe calls to us. I can hear it. When the technology is there to match the will, many will take the chance. And countless more after them. They'll give up everything for the chance. And if that fails, if a hundred million fail, they'll still keep trying. Onwards and outwards humanity will brave. We'll go absolutely as far as we can go ... then we'll stop. I think we have like a 10 million light years diameter area of conquerable space to mess about with, but no more. Still that's not to to be sneezed at.

It's still pretty far.

This I know, for I know my species. I know her ways and her whims. For I am her! And she is me.

Now get the fuck out of my office and build me some damn space-machines you filthy peasants!
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