How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

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How will Trump leave office?

Serves full two terms
6
14%
Loses 2020 election (to Democrat)
12
27%
Loses 2020 election (primary challenge/third-party/independent)
0
No votes
Doesn't stand in 2020 election
1
2%
Resigns - health reasons (physical or mental)
2
5%
Resigns - "personal reasons" (i.e. forced out by party)
5
11%
Resigns - genuine personal reasons (i.e. he chooses to resign)
2
5%
Resigns - scandal, a la Nixon
2
5%
Impeached - scandal/criminal charges/collusion, etc.
9
20%
Impeached - unfit for office (e.g. mental health concerns)
0
No votes
Dies in office - natural causes
2
5%
Dies in office - assassinated
1
2%
Dies in office - other
0
No votes
Other
2
5%
 
Total votes : 44

Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby Lindvaettr » Tue Aug 22, 2017 6:08 pm

Tesseracts wrote:I'm going to make a prediction right now. The next election is going to be a clusterfuck of enormous proportions that could dwarf the clusterfuck that was the 2016 election. No matter if Trump wins or loses he is going to cause an enormous amount of drama.


I don't think Trump will be the only cause. Just 8 months in, and we have a still-growing division between right and left, as well as increasing division between the moderates and extremes on both sides. Conservatives are still going to be extremely unlikely to vote for a Berniecrat (or similar farther-left politician), and many moderate Democrats will be hesitant, too. The far left, on the other hand, may be extremely reluctant to support any kind of moderate Democrat. The right may actually be a little more unified by then, in their disappointment in Trump, and they might all be willing to go for a more moderate conservative.

Overall, though, if trends continue, I expect there will be significant tumult, and very possibly a good deal of violence, from both sides of the aisle, and potentially even within those aisles.

Luckily, Americans are very good at democracy, compared to other countries. I expect when all is said and done after the election, nearly everyone will do the same thing they did when Trump won: Bitch about how awful it is, accept it, and move on.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby cmsellers » Tue Aug 22, 2017 7:01 pm

IamNotCreepy wrote:Also, the election is going to start in 2018.

It already started several months ago, when Trump started holding campaign rallies again.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby SandTea » Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:29 pm

The writer of 'art of the deal' says trump might resign and "declare victory".

I'm not so sure, unless we get some unarguable 'on every side' evidence that will get him kicked then, yea I can see that being his move rather than getting kicked out.

The NewYorker has an interesting read from the ghost writer though. "I put lipstick on a pig"
If he were writing “The Art of the Deal” today, Schwartz said, it would be a very different book with a very different title. Asked what he would call it, he answered, “The Sociopath.”
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby IamNotCreepy » Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:16 pm

cmsellers wrote:
IamNotCreepy wrote:Also, the election is going to start in 2018.

It already started several months ago, when Trump started holding campaign rallies again.


Fair point, but no one on the DNC side has declared their intention to run.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby Absentia » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:33 pm

FiveThirtyEight posted a discussion/breakdown of a new survey of 2016 Trump voters, divided into groups who were "excited" or "reluctant" to vote for Trump. The most shocking number: a whopping 45% of "reluctant" Trump voters said they would probably or definitely vote for someone else in 2020 (with another 5% saying they expect to stay home).

There's no exact figure for what percentage of Trump voters were reluctant, but I think it's fair to say that if he loses half of his non-core supporters in 2020 he's going to be toast.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby cmsellers » Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:01 am

FiveThirtyEight also noted in the same article that the people who would vote for someone else or not vote in both groups exceed the number of people who disapprove of him, which suggests that they're thinking about their dream candidate running against him.

Now, it's likely he'll lose, since incumbents tend to lose. And while it seems like he breaks all the rules, last election Republicans had a narrow advantage if the candidates were normal, but Trump was less popular than Hillary, but he had a built-in advantage in the Electoral College. The end result was that he fairly narrowly lost the popular vote while winning the Electoral College. The only somewhat surprising thing about it was that voters who disliked both Trump and Hillary broke for Trump, until you remember that many of these are people like Colberto who wanted change at any cost. And now kicking the clown out is the change option.

Of course this assumes that Strant's hypothesis is incorrect and he's not the main character in a poorly-written TV show.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby Absentia » Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:24 am

The disapproval rating among reluctants was 37%; it would still be devastating if he "only" lost that many voters. And one of those dream candidates could end up challenging Trump in the primary.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby cmsellers » Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:54 am

Absentia wrote:The disapproval rating among reluctants was 37%; it would still be devastating if he "only" lost that many voters. And one of those dream candidates could end up challenging Trump in the primary.

He's not going to lose even that many voters. Remember that voters who disliked Clinton and Trump both broke for him. And while I don't expect that to happen in 2020 (unless maybe the Democrats nominate Elizabeth Warren), at least some of those voters will hold their noses and vote for him.

Now, I think it's unlikely he'll win as things stand currently. My big concern is that he's going to start something with North Korea which bumps up his approval ratings because of a rally-round-the-flag effect.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:09 am

Turns out not everyone is that gung ho about a government that runs solely on gotchas,dog whistles, and nihilism and doesn't actually accomplish anything.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:58 pm

Absentia wrote:FiveThirtyEight posted a discussion/breakdown of a new survey of 2016 Trump voters, divided into groups who were "excited" or "reluctant" to vote for Trump. The most shocking number: a whopping 45% of "reluctant" Trump voters said they would probably or definitely vote for someone else in 2020 (with another 5% saying they expect to stay home).

There's no exact figure for what percentage of Trump voters were reluctant, but I think it's fair to say that if he loses half of his non-core supporters in 2020 he's going to be toast.


I would bet he gets most of those voters back. The Democrat will be demonized, and they'll come right on back, reluctant or not.

I still prize the most likely of the options as (in this order):
Loses in 2020
Serves two terms
Dies in office
Impeachment
Retires

I'm just glad my original estimation of Trump being the right's Jimmy Carter seems right on the money so far.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby Crimson847 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:45 pm

IamNotCreepy wrote:
cmsellers wrote:
IamNotCreepy wrote:Also, the election is going to start in 2018.

It already started several months ago, when Trump started holding campaign rallies again.


Fair point, but no one on the DNC side has declared their intention to run.


http://www.businessinsider.com/john-del ... ing-2017-7
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"If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them; but the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?"
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby IamNotCreepy » Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:56 pm

The low-profile centrist is a former banker who founded two publicly traded companies and is worth an estimated $90 million.

Delaney's best-known legislative accomplishments are bipartisan infrastructure-improvement initiatives, and he has presented himself as a "progressive businessman" who can balance government regulation and social safety-net programs with the needs of a free market.


In his op-ed, Delaney called for infrastructure investment, tax reform, and better healthcare and education systems. But he has previously eschewed some of the more popular causes among liberals, such as raising the minimum wage to $15. He was also the only congressional Democrat in Maryland to support the Trans-Pacific Partnership, drawing the ire of local labor unions, according to The Baltimore Sun.


He's got my vote. Of course, I would vote for a wet dog turd over Trump.
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