How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

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How will Trump leave office?

Serves full two terms
6
14%
Loses 2020 election (to Democrat)
12
27%
Loses 2020 election (primary challenge/third-party/independent)
0
No votes
Doesn't stand in 2020 election
1
2%
Resigns - health reasons (physical or mental)
2
5%
Resigns - "personal reasons" (i.e. forced out by party)
5
11%
Resigns - genuine personal reasons (i.e. he chooses to resign)
2
5%
Resigns - scandal, a la Nixon
2
5%
Impeached - scandal/criminal charges/collusion, etc.
9
20%
Impeached - unfit for office (e.g. mental health concerns)
0
No votes
Dies in office - natural causes
2
5%
Dies in office - assassinated
1
2%
Dies in office - other
0
No votes
Other
2
5%
 
Total votes : 44

Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:54 am

I doubt we see impeachment. Even if Democrats take the house, which is well within the realm of possibility, them taking the Senate is almost certainly not going to happen.

What I think will ultimately hamstring him is the same thing that frankly bedeviled Obama: Underemployment and the slow death of the middle class in the economy. While the economy is very slowly improving right now and Trump hasn't really been messing with it (for better or for worse), Congressional Republicans on the other hand seem pretty keen on corporation-friendly policies that encourage growth, which aren't really necessary when the unemployment rate is low and wages are also low. If they are successful, and all available evidence says Trump will sign literally anything they put on his desk, it could just widen economic inequality.

In the words of Carville: It's the economy, stupid. You can say you're a busy president all you want (41 bills that consist of like...20 one-page congressional reviews is not 'busy'), but people are gonna know if you're just full of shit if their outlook doesn't get better.

But on top of that, what I kinda figured would happen--in terms of any legislative agenda, anyways--has happened. He can't help himself, he's constantly getting in fights, and it's paralyzed his administration from doing anything big. As much as people are frustrated that his supporters continue to hang on, sitting in the high 30s and low 40s this early in his term with an alright economy is pretty unusual.

Also, I can't help but note that he seems either unable or unwilling to read polls and understand when Congress is passing something deeply unpopular. That's going to hurt him, especially if this upcoming tax cut features explicit cuts for the rich at the expense of the poor (As the health care bill did at one point). That hurt the bill a LOT last go round, and I can see it happening again with his sign off. Eventually, he's not going to be able to be like "LOL, I DON'T KNOW WHAT I'M DOING, GIVE ME A PASS", and it's gonna fuck him. Even a lot of Republicans seem to be wearying of conservative economics, and it seems to be all Congress wants to do.

Lastly, he's run a deeply partisan agenda after losing the popular vote, and that hasn't exactly helped. Saying "Well, the people don't seem to like my policies, let's just charge ahead on them as hard as I can anyways" is a poor idea, and the only policies that poll as being as unpopular as his are a lot of the shit Republicans in Congress seem keen on doing. Resistance has hardened against him, independents are bleeding away, and he's making no effort to bring new groups into the tent. If you're refusing to make friends, you're only ever going to make enemies.

So I think he'll serve one term, barring something from Mueller. It's possible he gets re-elected; right now, I'd give it about a 50-50 shot. But I think he's going to be a Carter: fun for his fans while he's raging against the elites, less fun when satellites are falling from the sky and everything's just going to shit. He either goes along with Republicans and exacerbates the income inequality that I think screwed over Clinton's chances, or he keeps on being Trump: the administration spends four years fighting needless battles while ultimately getting nothing done. If either of those is the way it goes, which I suspect it will be, his re-election outlook will not look incredible. Especially if the Democrats find an analogue to Teddy Roosevelt, who I think is probably the kind of president we need most right now--at least in terms of what consequences he had for the economy and the political system.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby Crimson847 » Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:02 am

Impeachment (that is to say, bringing charges, which only requires a majority vote of the House) might happen before 2020, but he almost certainly won't actually be "convicted" and removed from office, since that requires a 2/3rds majority of the Senate and there aren't enough Republican seats up in 2018 for Dems to even have a chance of getting that many. Most Republican Senators stuck by Nixon to the bitter end, when there was clear criminal activity and when the parties weren't nearly as polarized as they are now. I would be very surprised if more than a few voted to remove Trump unless some nigh-irrefutable proof is found that he committed a much worse felony than Nixon did (like, say, if it turns out he had a quid pro quo with Putin involving the DNC hack).

I picked him losing in 2020. I don't see him winning a second term at this rate unless the Democrats find another candidate as widely disliked as Hillary, and I can't think of anyone like that who's likely to run. Pelosi would fit the bill, but AFAIK she's not particularly interested in the job.
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Last edited by Crimson847 on Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby ghijkmnop » Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:10 am

Redacted
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Last edited by ghijkmnop on Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby NathanLoiselle » Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:20 am

I went with other. Because Trump will never leave office he'll just go to wherever it was that Elvis went. Sausilito I think?
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby satan_n_stuff » Wed Aug 02, 2017 7:53 pm

After finally noticing how hostile life on land is, he will crawl back into the water and go back to sitting in a reef somewhere deep beneath the waves absorbing nutrients through his skin until rising ocean temperatures eventually put him out of our misery.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:55 am

It's a shame that "He bequeaths the office to his daughter" wasn't an option.

Seriously, though, we should place bets on whether or not Ivanka runs for president once Donald's reign is over.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby cmsellers » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:01 am

What kind of low-energy poll is this?

There's no option for "he never leaves office because when he dies he's declared eternal president a-la Kim Il-Sung."

But seriously, I think the most likely option is that he loses in 2020 to a Democrat, since historically re-elections are always seen as referendums on the incumbent. On the other hand, Trump keeps re-writing the political playbook and the Democrats are excellent at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, so him serving two full terms would surprise me either, nor would a Paul LePage scenario where a strong independent divides the anti-Trump vote.

I do think that it's likely that normalcy will prevail and he'll serve out one or two terms, but I think that the chances of him being ousted by other means are non-negligible, which is not something I've have said about any other President.

If I had to make odds, the following seems about right to me:

45% - Serves one term and is defeated by a Democrat
25% - Serves two full terms
10% - Resigns or is impeached because of a scandal
5% - Resigns because running America is lame
5% - Forced out by the GOP
5% - Dies in office of natural causes
5% - Other

I'd also give 2:1 odds that he completes at least one full term (and I'd take the short odds on that), because except for resigning/being impeached from scandal, all the non-normal endings are much more likely in a second term.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby SandTea » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:42 am

satan_n_stuff wrote:After finally noticing how hostile life on land is, he will crawl back into the water and go back to sitting in a reef somewhere deep beneath the waves absorbing nutrients through his skin until rising ocean temperatures eventually put him out of our misery.


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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby DamianaRaven » Thu Aug 03, 2017 2:30 pm

gisambards wrote:Also disclaimer, just in case: someone voting for a "dies in office" option (esp. "assassinated", the inclusion of which might be controversial) is not saying they want Trump to die, nor that they think he should die - it's merely predicting that that's what they think will happen.


I'd like to go on record as saying that I want him to die, I think he should die, and I fucking hope he dies - the sooner the better. Die motherfucker die motherfucker die!
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby cmsellers » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:22 pm

So I'm thinking about it, and this is the most likely unlikely scenario for Trump leaving office in an unorthodox fashion. I included it in "defeated by a Democrat," but it's actually not.

Trump runs for a second term and gets the nomination. Then the polls consistently show him losing to a Democrat, so he changes his mind, claims he never meant to run for a second term, and drops out, likely just days before the election.

I'd say there's about a 15% chance of having this happen, which means I think it's about half as likely as him losing the election normally. But still: 15% is close to the chance he stood of actually winning the election for most of the race. Which means that this is exactly how things will play out. I think that's how statistics work, right?
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby Crimson847 » Thu Aug 03, 2017 7:16 pm

cmsellers wrote:So I'm thinking about it, and this is the most likely unlikely scenario for Trump leaving office in an unorthodox fashion. I included it in "defeated by a Democrat," but it's actually not.

Trump runs for a second term and gets the nomination. Then the polls consistently show him losing to a Democrat, so he changes his mind, claims he never meant to run for a second term, and drops out, likely just days before the election.


Why would he do that the second time when he didn't do so the first time? Especially considering that going into an election behind in the polls worked out just fine for him the first time?
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby tinyrick » Tue Aug 22, 2017 11:49 am

I chose impeachment due to the Russian scandal. I just don't think it's happening this year. Republicans are worried about re-election, but they are more worried about getting business done. I think the only reason we haven't moved forward with impeachment yet is all the stuff that's coming up in Congress in the next couple months. They need to decide a budget, they need to raise the debt ceiling, etc. Some liberal sites are calling the Repubs cowards, I don't really think that's the case. I think they need to get some business done before the year ends, cause if they don't the economy goes into a death spiral, and they can't blame the Democrats. As soon as the budget passes, they'll start talking with Franken and Schumer about impeachment. 2018 will be the year.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby Lindvaettr » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:23 pm

tinyrick wrote:2018 will be the year.


2018 is midterm elections. With Trump's and Congress's approval ratings sliding ever downward, beginning impeachment proceedings against their own party's President would risk further dividing the Republican party, which already stands to lose seats (the President's party usually loses seats in the first midterm, even when the President's approval rating is good, let alone bad). If impeachment proceedings begin in 2018, I think it'll have to be something so extremely egregious and obvious that there's no way to dodge them.

We might see impeachment in 2019 or 2020, but I think it really depends on how Trump and Congress are doing at the time. I can think of any number of plausible and politically reasonable reasons both for and against in those years, depending on the situation. At present, I would guess Trump will be a one-term President. If we get late enough into his term, and it's evident he won't be running again (entirely possible), it may come back to a risk vs. reward thing, and it might be too risky to impeach their own president (assuming Republicans still control Congress) to bother. For Democrats (if they control Congress), if Trump is as ineffective then as he is now, they might see their power better used for their own ends, rather than putting Pence in power for a year or two (which risks giving him Presidential experience to promote should he choose to run, himself).

On the other hand, the Republicans may feel that impeaching a highly disliked president would bolster flagging GOP support, and they may feel they could get more from a Pence (or Ryan) presidency than they'd lose impeaching their own guy. I don't think I need to give any reasons why the Democrats might want to impeach him.

Regardless, at the moment I'd be pretty surprised if Congress beings impeachment proceedings in 2018. Unless something very solid comes about between now and then (definitely possible), impeachment seems more risky than the reward might be, at least in my view.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby Tesseracts » Tue Aug 22, 2017 5:56 pm

I'm going to make a prediction right now. The next election is going to be a clusterfuck of enormous proportions that could dwarf the clusterfuck that was the 2016 election. No matter if Trump wins or loses he is going to cause an enormous amount of drama.
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Re: How will the Trump administration end? Place your bets.

Postby IamNotCreepy » Tue Aug 22, 2017 6:07 pm

Tesseracts wrote:I'm going to make a prediction right now. The next election is going to be a clusterfuck of enormous proportions that could dwarf the clusterfuck that was the 2016 election. No matter if Trump wins or loses he is going to cause an enormous amount of drama.


Also, the election is going to start in 2018.
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