There are several reasons why I believe that Scottish Independence would not work out economically, and why I believe that the argument for independence has been twisted to maintain the SNP's hold on power and manipulated to their political advantage through deliberately Anglophobic rhetoric and the repeated maligning of the English with no justification.
Well here goes, remember a few of these are speculation about the future or personal opinion.
1. Scotland cannot maintain its level of public spending once independent:
Currently the Scottish government is paying for public services to be free way beyond the situation which is claimed to be affordable in England. Dentistry (on the NHS), University tuition and social care for the elderly are all free in Scotland but carry fees in England because full public funding of these services would be unaffordable. I believe this is possible because the Scottish government does not raise taxes from among the Scottish people, but receives a "block grant" from Westminster to dispose of as they see fit. As far as I can tell, this has amounted to increased money being spent in Scotland compared with England and a fairly massive public service gap appearing.
2. The dependence on
North Sea Oil:
The argument in favour of Scottish economic success once independent relies upon the idea that North Sea Oil will be able to fund the burgeoning Scottish economy and maintain its level of public services. Many feel this is particularly optimistic, and that North Sea Oil production would be increasing given falling productivity and exploration since the peak in 1999 means that this would not be the gold mine the SNP is claiming.
Given that Scotland has roughly 5 million of the 61 million people in the UK today, and places like Glasgow represent particularly run down areas where large numbers are unemployed, and
23.2% of Scots are employed in the public sector, it does not follow logically that without massive tax hikes the Scots would be able to afford the public services they currently enjoy.
3. The head of state question:
Given that the Queen is actually the legitimate successor to the crown of both England and Scotland, as the Stuart Monarchs of Scotland were asked to take up the crown of England after the death of the last Tudor (in 1606), this means that the Queen of England would remain Head of State of Scotland even after Independence. While this is the case with other Commonwealth nations, if the Scottish government is going to respect the claim the Queen has then it does not make sense to claim governmental self-determination while remaining a constitutional monarchy.
4. Currency Union:
While up until the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, the SNP was advocating that an independent Scotland should join the Euro, the current line being adopted is that Scotland should seek to retain the pound as their currency. This absurd situation would involve the new Scotland's monetary policy being set in England, with some Scottish "involvement" in that process. Things like exchange rates would also be fixed in England and effectively this would mean that Scotland would remain economically dependant on England for crucial policy decisions.
5. Anglophobia, Devo-Plus and Alex Salmond:
So what we have here is a much more complex situation than just a country which has been oppressed seeking to sever its ties to the oppressive country. If anything, Scotland took over England in 1606, and remained linked for the last 400 years because it has been significantly profitable for both sides.
The argument for independence, is largely the argument to keep the SNP in power, and particularly the fairly odious Alex Salmond, their leader. The independence argument has been used as a stick to beat the English with rhetoric, blame them for any problems in Scotland, while the SNP takes credit for the successes (such as public sector expansion using English money). The referendum has now been delayed to 2014, while the SNP has been in power since 2007 (albeit in a minority government for the first term).
It seems like, from the figures I posted earlier about support for independence, that it is unlikely that the Yes campaign will succeed, but it is believed that Salmond will use the fallout of a referendum to argue for further powers to be devolved, the so-called
devo-plus idea that Scotland would then become responsible for raising it's own taxes as well.
Overall, I don't feel like the SNP has the best interests of Scotland at heart, rather they wish to remake Scotland into and unrealistic caricature of the country they wish Scotland had been a few hundred years ago, with little economic argument behind it, the likelihood of still having to cede monetary policy to England, and little historical basis for separation, I don't believe it would be a good thing to have an independent Scotland.
I totally support a referendum as it should be Scotland's right to choose their own government and fate. But I don't believe the support is there, I don't feel it would work economically and I don't see how Scotland suddenly becoming a foreign country would work out.