President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby EstebanColberto » Fri Nov 25, 2016 2:14 am

Crimson847 wrote:That being said: ladies and gentlemen, this is why Trump will be a one-term president. Colberto isn't alone here--a substantial proportion of Trump voters in the Rust Belt voted for him in hopes that he would be more liberal than Obama on economic issues. What makes this unsustainable is that he can't possibly please these people and the GOP base that's mostly responsible for his victory at the same time, because they want him to go in precisely opposite directions on economics. If he pushes for single-payer, he loses the GOP base right then and there. If he goes along with the GOP's core economic plans (repeal Obamacare without a replacement ready, give the rich a massive tax cut, slash social welfare spending on everything from Medicaid to food stamps, etc.), then instead he loses the blue-collar folks who put him over the top in the Rust Belt. There's no way for him to thread that needle; the bare minimum demands by each side are dealbreakers for the other side.


I've lived and worked with the GOP base longer than most of you. I've lived and breathed the GOP voter base. The GOP voter base is fucking stupid. Really fucking stupid. They hold up signs at Tea Party rallies that say, "Get your government hands off my Medicare." I knew I was taking a risk with Trump. I'm banking on these people continuing to be stupid. If Trump is going to push socialized medicine, they'll support it, cause it's not socialism if a Republican does it. It's a genius idea if Trump supports it. Deficits didn't matter when Bush was in charge, they won't matter now when Trump is in charge.
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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby Crimson847 » Fri Nov 25, 2016 7:00 am

EstebanColberto wrote:I've lived and worked with the GOP base longer than most of you. I've lived and breathed the GOP voter base. The GOP voter base is fucking stupid. Really fucking stupid. They hold up signs at Tea Party rallies that say, "Get your government hands off my Medicare." I knew I was taking a risk with Trump. I'm banking on these people continuing to be stupid. If Trump is going to push socialized medicine, they'll support it, cause it's not socialism if a Republican does it. It's a genius idea if Trump supports it. Deficits didn't matter when Bush was in charge, they won't matter now when Trump is in charge.


Like how immigration reform was only a bad idea until some Republicans signed on? Some Republicans who were promptly pilloried by the base and suffered badly for their heresy at the next election?

Bush got away with yawning deficits primarily because the main trigger was his tax cuts for the rich. You're right that Republicans don't oppose deficits full stop, but both Bush and Reagan got away with boosting the deficit because they mainly ran up deficits with conservative favorites like tax cuts and military spending, not with domestic social programs. Hardly anyone on the conservative right thought Medicare Part D was a genius idea, but they gritted their teeth and stuck by Bush despite that because of all the conservative stuff he also did.

That being said, it's kind of ironic that you picked Bush, given that he's easily the most reviled Republican president among Republicans. You don't get all the way down to a 28% approval rating at the end of your term without losing a lot of your own base, and Bush's "compassionate conservatism" being viewed as soft liberalism was a big reason for his fall from favor on the right.


Of course, Bush did win reelection by a narrow margin. However, the GOP was much more unified behind Bush when he took office than they are behind Trump now, he was a war president at a time when Americans weren't thoroughly sick of war, he was able to use the gay marriage issue as a lever thanks to fortuitous timing, and despite his occasional heresies Bush governed much more conservatively overall than you hope Trump will.


Beyond that, how would he get this through Congress? Obama couldn't whip up enough support for a public option among Democrats to get it passed, and he was a Democrat himself who was massively popular within the party. Trump will get a much frostier hearing from Democrats than Obama would have, and Democrats no longer hold the majority anyway, so he'd have to get support for a far more radical policy from a few dozen GOP Representatives and at least three or four GOP Senators, not to mention convince Ryan and McConnell to hold votes on the issue.

Getting the GOP base to merely go along with the idea of single-payer wouldn't be enough to accomplish this--he won't be able to convince GOP Congresscritters to go along with the idea as a matter of principle, so he would need to convince them that the base will rise up and boot them out of office if they don't play ball. To do that, he'd need to make support for single-payer the big issue for the GOP base, like immigration is currently. I don't see how he could plausibly make that happen given how much of the GOP base distrusts him.
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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby blehblah » Fri Nov 25, 2016 4:16 pm

Crimson847 wrote:

Beyond that, how would he get this through Congress? Obama couldn't whip up enough support for a public option among Democrats to get it passed, and he was a Democrat himself who was massively popular within the party. Trump will get a much frostier hearing from Democrats than Obama would have, and Democrats no longer hold the majority anyway, so he'd have to get support for a far more radical policy from a few dozen GOP Representatives and at least three or four GOP Senators, not to mention convince Ryan and McConnell to hold votes on the issue.

Getting the GOP base to merely go along with the idea of single-payer wouldn't be enough to accomplish this--he won't be able to convince GOP Congresscritters to go along with the idea as a matter of principle, so he would need to convince them that the base will rise up and boot them out of office if they don't play ball. To do that, he'd need to make support for single-payer the big issue for the GOP base, like immigration is currently. I don't see how he could plausibly make that happen given how much of the GOP base distrusts him.


The checks and balances at work. Unfortunately, the folks who built the structure counted on people elected to Congress and POTUS working for the betterment of the country, or at least the majority of them, with caveats. It was to the point that Ben Franklin leaned toward a presidential council, rather than a single person, fearing the POTUS position becoming monarchical (or, at least, I read that somewhere, maybe NYT, so probably sad, failing lies, sad jewel!).

Imagine if POTUS were a 3, 5, or 7 member council?

The focus was making sure no single person or small group could lord over the masses. That was natural since they were trying to find a system which would be idiot-proof, compared to you-know-who's parliamentary system (and I don't mean Canada, because our system is flawed, but generally pretty good).

However, the architects of America were working within their time. They figured the cream would rise to the top, and the majority of reasonable, rational, some might even say intellectual, leaders would carry the day over radical power-grabs and the like. Obstructionism was included, along with distribution of powers and an electoral college, to (in some ways) counter the tyranny of the majority (which, today, would see California, Texas, Florida, and New York running the show).

A lot has changed since the American experiment began. For example, term limits weren't a thing, because who the hell would figure this was possible:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... sentatives
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... of_service

"Really, guys, let's face it, by the time somebody is old and wise enough to get elected, they could do what - like twenty years, at most. Death, I declare, is the ultimate check upon power."

- Probably Ben Franklin

"Shaddup, you old fart, and sign the bloody thing before you croak so we can Facebook it!"

- Probably everyone else

The way things play-out now, my snarky comment about Trump a few posts ago, or Crim's thoughts, could easily be transformed into a blog post about president-elect Bernie Sanders. The checks and balances will, for better or for worse, keep Trump under control so far as what he is able to push. The reality is that today, each and every check and balance is exploited far beyond their original intention.

For example, several senators indicated before the election that if Clinton won, they would continue to refuse to confirm any Clinton nomination to the SCOTUS (as they did with Obama's nomination to replace Antonin Scalia). Ted Cruz, as an example, is advertised as being a 'constitutional conservative', yet he implied he would block the function of government because... reasons. The constitution was created to describe how government should work, yadda yadda, while Cruz et al were using it as a way to enforce how the government should work for their ideals barring which they would grind the whole show to a halt, because, reasons.

"I firmly admire how our constitutional democracy works, especially because it allows someone like me to make it not work for everyone and anyone, on behalf of me, when I don't get my way, and therefore, I cannot, in good conscience, confirm this choice."

- Probably Ted Cruz at the age of five when told it would be fish for dinner

No matter where you plant yourself on the political spectrum, government leaders who refuse to work within the spirit of the system, and are willing to see it all burn rather than concede, are an unanticipated problem.

There are parallels throughout the Western world. Folks like Trump, Marine Le Pen, Nigel Farage, or Bernie Sanders tell their supporters that the system will change for the better, and everything will be great again, while throwing wrenches into the works. Yet they are working in different political systems with very different political mechanisms than they sell. They (including Trump) see the election of Trump as an end. In the American system, as with most democracies, it's a beginning.

The founding folks likely didn't anticipate the impact of money and mass media, let alone social networks and online pseudo-media channels. They had no way to anticipate the requirement to raise massive amounts of money to pay for media, super-PACs, deal with lobbyists, and all the rest of the bullshit that comes-down to dollars multiplying votes.

I think they'd be shocked to see the state of things. I can imagine Franklin's ghost pulling-out a kite and handing it to Cruz, then pulling-out a stubby pencil while muttering, "Back from the dead to fix this crap... thought all ya'll would be enlightened... or at least get the gist of it... and not even a single hoverboard that isn't bullshit... the entirety of human knowledge at your fingertips, the structure of government that we slaved over, and you idiots... why I oughta... focus, Ben... serenity now... okay, so, guns - what the fuck? *scratch* Second, organizations are as liable as individuals, but they do not have all the same rights as individuals, because they fucking are not individuals... good lord, how is that not obvious? *scratch* Moving-on... What? Tell Ted he isn't shocked enough, and he can tie a key on it... a key... a metal object which conducts electricity... I said electricity... I see here he supports the death penalty, how is this message not connecting? So help me, I will go back to being dead.... serenity now... YOU OUTLAWED WEED? I give-up, you dumb shits are on your own."
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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby Crimson847 » Fri Nov 25, 2016 8:25 pm

blehblah wrote:The way things play-out now, my snarky comment about Trump a few posts ago, or Crim's thoughts, could easily be transformed into a blog post about president-elect Bernie Sanders. The checks and balances will, for better or for worse, keep Trump under control so far as what he is able to push. The reality is that today, each and every check and balance is exploited far beyond their original intention.


Trump himself is severely constrained in his control over domestic economic policies like social welfare programs, healthcare, and tax policy. He is significantly constrained in domestic social policy, though he has some control in the form of appointments (particularly via the Attorney General).

However, the President has quite a bit of autonomy in foreign policy. Obviously, Trump can run his mouth in public all he wants without consent of Congress, which has its own foreign policy consequences when he says things that alienate other nations. More concerning, the President can order military operations without a Congressional declaration of war, can bail on military commitments like responding to attacks on a NATO member, and has sole control over the country's nuclear arsenal. The only check any other branch has over these powers is the Senate's impeachment power, which is far too slow a process to stop an ICBM or a Russian invasion of the Baltics.

In short, checks and balances only go so far.
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"If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them; but the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?"
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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby Aquila89 » Fri Nov 25, 2016 8:36 pm

Crimson847 wrote:Some people did, but the evidence didn't support either conclusion, and this was discernible (and observed by many) well in advance. Yes, Hillary was favored to win the election. Yes, some folks on the left stupidly tried to convince themselves that her win was essentially guaranteed.


You say they shouldn't have spoke with certainty. And yet you're doing just that. He'll be a one-term president. There's no way for him to thread that needle. The coalition will turn on him.

Really? Is that certain? Or does it just seem likely, like Clinton's victory did?
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Last edited by Aquila89 on Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby blehblah » Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:25 pm

Crimson847 wrote:
However, the President has quite a bit of autonomy in foreign policy. Obviously, Trump can run his mouth in public all he wants without consent of Congress, which has its own foreign policy consequences when he says things that alienate other nations. More concerning, the President can order military operations without a Congressional declaration of war, can bail on military commitments like responding to attacks on a NATO member, and has sole control over the country's nuclear arsenal. The only check any other branch has over these powers is the Senate's impeachment power, which is far too slow a process to stop an ICBM or a Russian invasion of the Baltics.

In short, checks and balances only go so far.


That is true. It is a result of the design going back to a time where foreign policy was delivered by ship, rather than Twitter.

Even back then, the position of POTUS was built to recognize that Congress could not react quickly enough to immediate threats. Immediate, at the time, meant months or weeks. Likewise, gathering congressional approval of reaction to a threat could take ages. That has been changed to mean proactively acting on what could be a threat. Famously, Vietnam wasn't a war, it was a police action. Likewise, GW Bush and Obama extended the ability of POTUS to engage in war-like actions without the need to go to Congress and ask for a declaration of war.

On NATO and nuclear codes, I suspect there are structures in-place which isolate the particular will of the POTUS from the actions of the military. POTUS is commander in chief, but there are many, many mechanisms in-place between whomever is POTUS and pushing a nuclear button, or not reacting to the invasion of a NATO member. It would take quite a lot more than Trump sitting in the big chair to dismantle those mechanisms... which is why the mechanisms are there.

On declaring foreign policy (whether a bullshit rant, or a real direction) via a big mouth with little to no filter... yeah... there is nothing holding Trump back. Well, there was for a brief time before the election, when his campaign team yanked him off Twitter.

The saving grace is that other world leaders aren't stupid. It is unlikely that wars will be fought, or not, based on what Trump tweets at 2 AM. In the end, the consequences won't be delivered by an overweight seventy year-old reality star ranting on Twitter, even if he happens to be POTUS, but by the US military... I hope.

Holy crap. I just rationalized my way into being happy the military-industrial complex is an entity beyond government control.

*folds paper into an F-35-ish shape*

GIVE ME YOUR BILLIONS, NOW!
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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby Krashlia » Sat Nov 26, 2016 1:53 am

Ok, kinda random guys but... It it me, or are/were there a weird amount New Yorkers involved in this election?
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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby Crimson847 » Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:07 pm

Aquila89 wrote:
Crimson847 wrote:Some people did, but the evidence didn't support either conclusion, and this was discernible (and observed by many) well in advance. Yes, Hillary was favored to win the election. Yes, some folks on the left stupidly tried to convince themselves that her win was essentially guaranteed.


You say they shouldn't have spoke with certainty. And yet you're doing just that. He'll be a one-term president. There's no way for him to thread that needle. The coalition will turn on him.

Really? Is that certain? Or does it just seem likely, like Clinton's victory did?


I'm certain the coalition that propelled him to victory this time around will fracture. Probably shouldn't have said he'll be a one-term president so confidently; there are other ways he could win in 2020. For instance, if he ends up largely mired in gridlock or abandons some of his economic promises (e.g. trade wars), he might have the good fortune to preside over an unexpected economic boom, like the dotcom and housing booms of the 1990s. He wouldn't have created it, but he could certainly take credit for it, just as Bill Clinton did when he lucked his way into a booming economy.

Likewise, while he can't count on getting the same rally-around-the-flag effect that Bush benefited from if he starts a war or appears to provoke one, he may get such a boost if ISIS pulls off a 9/11-level attack in the US and he responds forcefully. (I say "may" because it also might not be a good look for both Republican presidents of the 21st century to preside over historically devastating terror attacks. People might start wondering why the party that keeps promising to "keep us safe" keeps failing spectacularly at doing so, which wouldn't be to Trump's benefit.)

Contrarywise, if he ends up governing like a bog-standard Republican and tones way the hell down, he stands a decent chance of winning back Republicans and Republican-leaners who couldn't bring themselves to support Mr. "Grab rapist immigrants by the pussy and make Mexico pay for it", even as he loses the disaffected Rust Belt Democrats. That would effectively just leave him with Romney's coalition, but combined with a bad Democratic candidate and the advantage of incumbency that might be enough to pull out a win in 2020.

In other words, while his current coalition will almost certainly fracture, depending on the circumstances he may be able to make up the lost ground elsewhere.
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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby KleinerKiller » Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:42 pm

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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby Absentia » Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:25 pm

I know it seems like nothing has been able to derail Trump's support, but I'm pretty sure that blowing up America's phones for petty bullshit would do the trick. That's one thing that all voters really can agree they're against.
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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby KleinerKiller » Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:46 pm

Absentia wrote:I know it seems like nothing has been able to derail Trump's support, but I'm pretty sure that blowing up America's phones for petty bullshit would do the trick. That's one thing that all voters really can agree they're against.


Oooor...

"Haha! President Trump is so funny! And he knows how to reach out to the common people, not like Obummer! I definitely know who I'm voting for in 2020!"
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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby iMURDAu » Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:49 pm



That article was absolutely using a scare tactic. Trump isn't going to send mass texts just because he can.

I'm beginning to hate the left as much as the right. That's the first and last time I'll visit the a/v club. Shit's as weak as claiming Obama was going to take all the guns away. I'm sorry. Is. Because there's still time for him to do that.
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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby Aquila89 » Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:59 pm

Trump isn't going to send mass texts just because he can.


The article doesn't really say that.

"There are, thankfully, some checks and balances in place that will hopefully ensure the entire nation doesn’t receive a 3 a.m. text storm any time over the next four years."

It just says that Trump will have the power to send emergency messages and it's possible that he won't use it responsibly. And it's written in a half-joking tone.

I'm beginning to hate the left as much as the right. That's the first and last time I'll visit the a/v club. Shit's as weak as claiming Obama was going to take all the guns away.


Give me a break. Republicans turned "Obama is going to take away your guns" into a campaign issue. Trump gave speeches saying the same about Hillary Clinton. No Democratic politician will campaign on emergency texts.
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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby blehblah » Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:18 pm

WEAs are 90-character targeted messages


Trump: What a piece of shit... who's in charge of this? Get me Mark Twitterburg on the phone, pronto!

White-house staff: Wut?

Trump: Issue this alert, "You're fired". But whatever, where's Kellyanne?

WHS: Al, al, al, Alberta, I think?

Trump: Beautiful! Chad, you're doing a great job.

WHS: Didn't you just fire me?

Trump: Don't believe everything you see on television, especially CNN, Brad.

WHS: Chad. I'm Chad, not Brad, you fired Brad last...

Trump: Fuck-you, Chris, and don't you look me in the eye while I'm thoughting.

WHS: ...

Trump: I have a solution. Get someone on the phone, but not a real someone, a back-channel someone, a guy who I can deal with, Charles, because you're in charge of doing the dial.

WHS: Ah... Oh... okay... Steve?

Trump: Yes, get me Steve at Twitterbook!
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Re: President Trump makes himself an even BIGGER asshole

Postby KleinerKiller » Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:31 pm

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