The Really Big One

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Re: The Really Big One

Postby JamishT » Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:04 am

Andropov4 wrote:
JamishT wrote:
ShuaiGuy wrote:
KleinerKiller wrote:I never thought I'd say this without a comically large gun to my head, but I really hope Shuai is right.


HEY!!!!!!!!!!

And Jamish, we all know that death is better than living in Kansas. I don't even know why you're trying!


Well that's weird, I didn't know I was trying to live in Kansas! I'm trying to live in Missouri!


To be fair, I've lived in Missouri (or Mizurrah, as the locals call it), and it can't possibly be much better than Kansas.


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Re: The Really Big One

Postby ShuaiGuy » Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:40 am

<Redacted>
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Last edited by ShuaiGuy on Sun Mar 27, 2016 8:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby Absentia » Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:44 am

Ah yes, one of the few reasons to be glad I live on the east coast instead of the west. The nice thing about hurricanes is you know they're coming days in advance; a really nasty one might destroy your house, particularly if you live right on the coast or in a flood zone, but you'll have plenty of time to pack up and evacuate.

And the weaker tropical storms are kind of fun. Standing outside in 60 mph gusts and driving rain is an experience.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby CarrieVS » Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:24 am

ShuaiGuy wrote:From the article:

Thanks to work done by him and his colleagues, we now know that the odds of the big Cascadia earthquake happening in the next fifty years are roughly one in three. The odds of the very big one are roughly one in ten.


Thanks to that work, we now know that the Pacific Northwest has experienced forty-one subduction-zone earthquakes in the past ten thousand years. If you divide ten thousand by forty-one, you get two hundred and forty-three, which is Cascadia’s recurrence interval: the average amount of time that elapses between earthquakes. That timespan is dangerous both because it is too long—long enough for us to unwittingly build an entire civilization on top of our continent’s worst fault line—and because it is not long enough. Counting from the earthquake of 1700, we are now three hundred and fifteen years into a two-hundred-and-forty-three-year cycle.


The author goes on to say,
It is possible to quibble with that number. Recurrence intervals are averages, and averages are tricky: ten is the average of nine and eleven, but also of eighteen and two.
. But then goes right into the same "OH MY GOSH WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE" in that same paragraph.


I think that the article did a poor job of explaining how the 1/3 and 1/10 figures were arrived at, and could have said more about the problems with average recurrence intervals. I would at least have liked a maximum and minimum of the intervals where we know them. But unless this a really deliberate attempt to mislead the mention of it would sduggest that it's been addressed in the calculations - I expect it was felt to be just too hard to understand for the target audience: statistics are confusing.

Before calling bullshit, let's just look at the figures. We're somewhat over the average of the intervals now, yet the figures say it's twice as likely not to produce an earthquake in the next fifty years as it is not to. There is a 90% chance that there won't be a megaquake in that time, equating to it being around twice as likely that even if there is a quake it won't be the 'really big one'.

Yes, I do find the tone of that section to be somewhat sensationalist (I'd rather the expression '243-year cycle' hadn't been used, for starters), but the actual figures are saying it probably won't happen in the next fifty years and probably won't be the worst case even if it does. The author's inclusion of the caveat implies that the odds have been estimated with all that taken into account. I'd have be an expert on the subject and come up with my own estimate independently from the data to say whether the numbers are good but at a naive glance they look modest enough.

We can't predict when an earthquake will happen - we can't forecast them so as to evacuate the area and begin an emergency response, but we can predict that it will at some point, and to suggest that putting any kind of figure on whether it being within a reasonably coarse-grained period is a remote or a significant possibility is ludicrous is rather a stronger statement.



From my research just now, the maximum and minimum intervals that we know are 900 years and around 200, with the majority being around 200-400 and 1/3 of the intervals 2-3 times that. There is nothing between 400 years and almost 800. But the number of data points is painfully small: 6 intervals, with two long ones and four short.

The most recent interval (the one before the 1700 quake) was long, and the series is 'short short long' repeated twice. So at a naive glance it looks as though it would imply the next interval would probably be nearer to 300 than 800 years, but it's too few data points to say so - one of the sources for the wikipedia article addresses that in slightly more detail.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby Jack Road » Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:32 am

This was not at all the dildo review thread I was hoping it was.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby Cobra-D » Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:47 pm

aviel wrote:
Crimson847 wrote:EDIT: btw Aviel, I hope the location marked on that map isn't your actual address. Also, San Clemente is way too far south to be seriously affected.

Most people here know my address, and the fact that nobody has stalked me is honestly kind of an insult at this point.


seeing how i live the closest to you, ive been meaning to stalk you but i mean you're kinda far and traffic is so horrible, it's such a hassle

I just checked the map and im east of the 5 so yay!.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby Ceiling_Squid » Wed Jul 15, 2015 4:30 pm

FaceTheCitizen wrote:At first, I was like "haha East Coast" but then I remembered I have friends at the West Coast. =(

Hey guys, wanna move to the Mid West? Nothing happens over-





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Fuck you Nature.


Whats all this about East Coast anyway?

Hey, hipsterville isn't the only part of the West coast, now! What about the Pacific Southwest? We aren't being obliterated. Everybody should come hang out h-

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Shit.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby Crimson847 » Wed Jul 15, 2015 4:39 pm

ShuaiGuy wrote:Chapter 5 of The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver specifically points to Earthquake predictions as generally poor statistics. Basically we've got the Gutenberg-Richter Law and that's it. Anything more specific tends to fail.


Nate Silver isn't a seismologist or geologist, so "they're wrong because Silver said so" isn't an argument that holds any water.

tl;dr I find nothing to be legitimately scared of in this article. I certainly intend to move back to the Pacific Northwest later in my life.


I don't think anyone's arguing that you shouldn't. More that the PNW region needs to be much better prepared for such a quake than it presently is. Hell, I've spent some of this thread illustrating that almost every region that you'd want to live in is prone to at least one type of major natural disaster.

CarrieVS wrote:From my research just now, the maximum and minimum intervals that we know are 900 years and around 200, with the majority being around 200-400 and 1/3 of the intervals 2-3 times that. There is nothing between 400 years and almost 800. But the number of data points is painfully small: 6 intervals, with two long ones and four short.

The most recent interval (the one before the 1700 quake) was long, and the series is 'short short long' repeated twice. So at a naive glance it looks as though it would imply the next interval would probably be nearer to 300 than 800 years, but it's too few data points to say so - one of the sources for the wikipedia article addresses that in slightly more detail.


There are at least 40 known intervals as far as I'm aware. The figure of 7 occurrences is just for the past couple thousand years.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby aviel » Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:10 pm

Crimson847 wrote:
ShuaiGuy wrote:Chapter 5 of The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver specifically points to Earthquake predictions as generally poor statistics. Basically we've got the Gutenberg-Richter Law and that's it. Anything more specific tends to fail.


Nate Silver isn't a seismologist or geologist, so "they're wrong because Silver said so" isn't an argument that holds any water.

To be fair, he is a statistician, so he does have sufficient expertise to analyze whether or not predictions are accurate, even if he doesn't have the expertise to explain why they're inaccurate or to suggest better methodology.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:14 pm

Ceiling_Squid wrote:
Hey, hipsterville isn't the only part of the West coast, now! What about the Pacific Southwest? We aren't being obliterated. Everybody should come hang out h-

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Shit.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Encinitas counts as Hipsterville.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby CarrieVS » Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:19 pm

Crimson847 wrote:There are at least 40 known intervals as far as I'm aware. The figure of 7 occurrences is just for the past couple thousand years.


Yes, but I couldn't find any mention that we could tell from the sea-floor data when each of the earlier quakes happened. If we can then they have at least 39 intervals, which is at the least a good starting point. If not, they have 6 intervals plus an average interval calculated from a larger sample.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:35 pm

Yes and it was also suspected there would be an earthquake that would occur a couple of months ago that would conveniently respect state and international borders and completely separate Alta California from the continent. Notice how the Earthquake is said to devastate The Pacific Northwest and all of California west of I-5. Sure a quake like that will inevitably happen in a few hundred years or so, but there's some definite wishful thinking going on here.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby Crimson847 » Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:38 pm

Ericthebearjew wrote:Yes and it was also suspected there would be an earthquake that would occur a couple of months ago that would conveniently respect state and international borders and completely separate Alta California from the continent. Notice how the Earthquake is said to devastate The Pacific Northwest and all of California west of I-5. Sure a quake like that will inevitably happen in a few hundred years or so, but there's some definite wishful thinking going on here.


http://q13fox.com/2015/07/13/local-expe ... ke-in-pnw/
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby Bromo » Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:47 pm

Crimson847 wrote:
Kevin_Durant wrote:Places to move to: Oklahoma. Come over to my house, people, so we can have an End of the World party! My treat.


Well, at least until tornado season comes.


Don't worry. We have storm cellars; we're well prepared for tornadoes. The only things we're not prepared for are floods and earthquakes, but that's because the worst floods only happen every several decades and the only earthquakes we have (so far) are the itty bitty ones that last like a couple of seconds that you'd barely feel a thing. Speaking of floods, we almost set a record two to three months ago for the worst flood in over several decades. Had the people not used sandbags to prevent it from getting any higher, it would have been A LOT worse. Incidentally, I would have been in the same area tossing sandbags if I hadn't moves. Ha ha! I bet those losers wish they had my luck!
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby Ceiling_Squid » Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:58 pm

Ericthebearjew wrote:Yeah, I'm pretty sure Encinitas counts as Hipsterville.


Ey, just taking a weak generalized crack at the Pacific Northwest. Not remotely accurate upon closer examination ;)
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