The Really Big One

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Re: The Really Big One

Postby ShuaiGuy » Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:02 am

<Redacted>
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby FaceTheCitizen » Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:03 am

...
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby BROWNRECLUSE » Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:24 am

All this talk of earthquakes and hurricanes is nothing. We are long overdue for Skynet to turn our own nukes against us.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby Crimson847 » Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:49 am

ShuaiGuy wrote:Most of my immediate family is in the Pacific Northwest. I have almost 0 concern to give to this issue. I've heard about it before, but it's more super-disaster scaremongering. It's like Yellowstone, or whatever other disasters we're all supposed to die from.


Edit: Yea, I just finished the article. Basic scaremongering. With bad math thrown in. Nate Silver's book about Signals and noises and statistics and shenanigans actually goes into detail about these kinds of super disasters, especially earthquakes.

I will of course be deleting this post and creating a gofundme for myself if any of this comes true in the immediate future and you all had better donate.


Define "scaremongering".

If you're suggesting that the type of quake they describe isn't overwhelmingly likely to happen within the next couple hundred years, seismologists and geologists would like a word.

If you're suggesting that the Pacific NW is well prepared for such a quake or that the effects would be relatively minor as natural disasters go, city planners and civil engineers would like a word.

If you're suggesting that it won't actually doom everyone west of I-5 and render the entire region "unrecognizeable" the way the article portrays, you're right.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby ShuaiGuy » Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:12 am

<Redacted>
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby KleinerKiller » Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:59 am

I never thought I'd say this without a comically large gun to my head, but I really hope Shuai is right.

I live in Washington, west of the Cascades, smack in the middle of the suggested devastation zone, and my current life plans don't allow for me moving out of state until I'm in my early twenties. My parents will most likely be remaining here, and my sister's a wild card.

Emigrating to the UK (the only option that's likely to save me from the devastation and give me a comfortable place to live) is going to wreck my expenses if my calculations of what I'll have earned by then are correct. And I can't just go to the East Coast, both for storm-related reasons that have previously been covered and my general distaste for the region.

Basically, if it occurs within the article's projections, I might well be fucked.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby JamishT » Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:08 am

Time for everyone to move to Kansas City! I'll buy some acreage outside of town, and we'll build a giant house on it and all live in it and do whatever I tell you to. Come to me, my followers!
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby 52xMax » Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:25 am

I survived a 7.2 earthquake and there was barely any structural damage to my house.

Not that I'm telling mother earth to "bring it", but if we all lived our lives afraid of what might happen, the entire Netherlands would not exist. It's one thing to be prepared, but just panicking for hypothetical worst case scenarios is just not productive.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby Taluun » Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:28 am

as a reminder, the scale is logarithmic so the difference between a 7.0 and a 7.2 and the difference between a 7.2 and a 7.4 isn't equal. A 9 is much much worse than a 7.2.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby ShuaiGuy » Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:51 am

<Redacted>
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby Crimson847 » Wed Jul 15, 2015 7:01 am

ShuaiGuy wrote:The last one and the first one. The article doesn't say "next several hundred years" it pins everything within the next 50. 1 in 3 to major earthquake within 50. 1 in 10 for the "big one". It also doesn't utilize statistics properly. You can't just divide all past earthquakes and then assume that the average holds true every time. It also reads like it assumes the kind of probabilities you get by pulling a card out of a deck of cards. First is 1/52, then 1/51, then 1/50. It doesn't work like that.

Quite frankly, our understanding of earthquakes is such that we can't make very accurate predictions at this point. Sometimes you get a person who has a totally new model that might predict one or two, but then it predicts earthquakes that never happen and doesn't predict earthquakes that do.


The article is somewhat sensationalistic, but the science it's based on is compelling. Nobody's making the statistical errors you claim, not even the article: the first issue is explicitly pointed out in the New Yorker piece IIRC.

KleinerKiller wrote:I never thought I'd say this without a comically large gun to my head, but I really hope Shuai is right.

I live in Washington, west of the Cascades, smack in the middle of the suggested devastation zone, and my current life plans don't allow for me moving out of state until I'm in my early twenties. My parents will most likely be remaining here, and my sister's a wild card.

Emigrating to the UK (the only option that's likely to save me from the devastation and give me a comfortable place to live) is going to wreck my expenses if my calculations of what I'll have earned by then are correct. And I can't just go to the East Coast, both for storm-related reasons that have previously been covered and my general distaste for the region.

Basically, if it occurs within the article's projections, I might well be fucked.


How far do you live from the coast, what is your house made out of, and when was it built?
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Last edited by Crimson847 on Wed Jul 15, 2015 7:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby ShuaiGuy » Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:27 am

<Redacted>
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby KleinerKiller » Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:48 am

Crimson847 wrote:
KleinerKiller wrote:I never thought I'd say this without a comically large gun to my head, but I really hope Shuai is right.

I live in Washington, west of the Cascades, smack in the middle of the suggested devastation zone, and my current life plans don't allow for me moving out of state until I'm in my early twenties. My parents will most likely be remaining here, and my sister's a wild card.

Emigrating to the UK (the only option that's likely to save me from the devastation and give me a comfortable place to live) is going to wreck my expenses if my calculations of what I'll have earned by then are correct. And I can't just go to the East Coast, both for storm-related reasons that have previously been covered and my general distaste for the region.

Basically, if it occurs within the article's projections, I might well be fucked.


How far do you live from the coast, what is your house made out of, and when was it built?


I live in the Arlington area, so Seattle's a couple of hours away when driving in good traffic. My house has wooden siding and a lot of it on the interior, but I don't know what it's actually made of, nor how well reinforced it is (I do know that the glass was built to withstand our high winds, frequent rainfall, and occasional hailstorms, and I know the house is worth, in business terms, a metric fuckton in the current market). As for when it was built, the neighborhood is a modern one, but I haven't the foggiest about the exact age.
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby JamishT » Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:53 am

ShuaiGuy wrote:
KleinerKiller wrote:I never thought I'd say this without a comically large gun to my head, but I really hope Shuai is right.


HEY!!!!!!!!!!

And Jamish, we all know that death is better than living in Kansas. I don't even know why you're trying!


Well that's weird, I didn't know I was trying to live in Kansas! I'm trying to live in Missouri!
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Re: The Really Big One

Postby Andropov4 » Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:58 am

JamishT wrote:
ShuaiGuy wrote:
KleinerKiller wrote:I never thought I'd say this without a comically large gun to my head, but I really hope Shuai is right.


HEY!!!!!!!!!!

And Jamish, we all know that death is better than living in Kansas. I don't even know why you're trying!


Well that's weird, I didn't know I was trying to live in Kansas! I'm trying to live in Missouri!


To be fair, I've lived in Missouri (or Mizurrah, as the locals call it), and it can't possibly be much better than Kansas.
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