Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby Fun With Mr. Fudge » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:47 pm

Absentia wrote:The House of Representatives voted on a resolution to condemn Trump's remarks, a purely symbolic gesture. With Democrats in control of the chamber, it passed. How many Republican votes did it get?

Spoiler: show

4, out of 197 Republicans. Add in the newly independent Justin Amash, and that's a whopping 2.5% of elected Republicans in the House who were willing to break ranks, even just far enough for a toothless resolution.

Like I said, they can squeeze under even the lowest bar.


Technically, Republicans have an out. It's literally against House rules to call the president or his statements racist. This led to an absurd sequence in which Pelosi calling out Trump's tweets was deemed inappropriate and almost erased from the record at a Republican's behest. Even Majority Leader Steny Hoyer called her comments "out of order" at first.

I also wanted to touch briefly on this.

iMURDAu wrote:Really the thing that gets me is I'm supposed to fear 4 Congresswoman based on the rants of someone who doesn't understand what Congress is or how it works and doesn't even research the people he insults. Is he going to sheepishly admit that 3 of the 4 are native born Americans once he sees their birth certificates?


Nope. I'll give the very related example of a question sometimes called a microagrression. Sometimes "where are you from?" doesn't really mean what it seems to be asking when the question is posed to a member of a racial minority. Sometimes it' means, "What non-white country do your ancestors come from?"

I think Kellyanne Conway gave away the game when a reporter pressed her on Trump's tweets, specifically with respect to the countries he was claiming the Squad came from. Conway asked him his ethnicity and noted that her ancestors came from Ireland and Italy.

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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby NathanLoiselle » Wed Jul 17, 2019 6:31 pm

Oh come on! We all know that AOC's birth certificate is doctored. You know it, I know it, we all know it.
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WINNING.
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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby Absentia » Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:04 am

Fun With Mr. Fudge wrote:I think Kellyanne Conway gave away the game when a reporter pressed her on Trump's tweets, specifically with respect to the countries he was claiming the Squad came from. Conway asked him his ethnicity and noted that her ancestors came from Ireland and Italy.


Ironically, during the big wave of Irish and Italian immigration at the turn of the 20th century, Kellyanne's ancestors probably faced the same kind of nativist bigotry that someone like Ilhan Omar has to deal with today. Not only were they from "inferior" countries, they had a foreign religion: Catholicism. This was during the peak of the KKK movement, and they hated Catholic immigrants even more than they hated blacks.

Today all of that is beyond living memory, and nobody doubts that somebody who looks like Kellyanne is a "real American" because she's indistinguishable from WASP. White privilege, indeed.
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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby Fun With Mr. Fudge » Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:30 pm

Absentia wrote:Ironically, during the big wave of Irish and Italian immigration at the turn of the 20th century, Kellyanne's ancestors probably faced the same kind of nativist bigotry that someone like Ilhan Omar has to deal with today. Not only were they from "inferior" countries, they had a foreign religion: Catholicism. This was during the peak of the KKK movement, and they hated Catholic immigrants even more than they hated blacks.

Today all of that is beyond living memory, and nobody doubts that somebody who looks like Kellyanne is a "real American" because she's indistinguishable from WASP. White privilege, indeed.


I think that forgetfulness is goal- and context-dependent. Watch enough discussions/debates about slavery or discrimination, and there will inevitably be a white person who comes along trying to minimize the plight of blacks by bringing up this very point. I can't remember the video, but I saw interviews of Trump supporters in which a woman specifically said that her ancestors were Irish and mistreated, and she wanted to know if she deserved reparations.

But Trump, I think, stands to benefit politically from more outrageous displays of prejudice among his base. Republican support for Trump rose five percent after his tweets, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Obviously, it's just one poll, and perhaps the Republicans who were surveyed doubled down because they feel their guy is under attack or they think they're expected to disapprove after his remarks, but that would be just as bad as endorsing his views in my view if it translated into actual votes.

This controversy also gave Trump a new rallying cry -- as in a thing people will cry at his rallies: "Send her back."

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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby Absentia » Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:45 pm

Fun With Mr. Fudge wrote:But Trump, I think, stands to benefit politically from more outrageous displays of prejudice among his base. Republican support for Trump rose five percent after his tweets, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Obviously, it's just one poll, and perhaps the Republicans who were surveyed doubled down because they feel their guy is under attack or they think they're expected to disapprove after his remarks, but that would be just as bad as endorsing his views in my view if it translated into actual votes.


The idea that this imbroglio is good for Trump is getting batted around a lot, and I'm very skeptical.

His approval rating among self-identified Republicans doesn't mean a whole lot, because at this point "Republican" and "Trump supporter" are pretty much synonymous. Many Republican voters who didn't like him aren't identifying as Republicans anymore, so there's an obvious selection bias. And on a related note, self-identified Republicans don't represent a large enough voting bloc for him to win in 2020 without support from independents, where his approval is in the low 30's.

It's also trendy to claim that because Ilhan Omar is unpopular with swing voters, Trump is secretly a genius for forcing Democrats to defend her. The problem with this idea is the assumption that swing voters dislike Omar more than they dislike bald-faced racist diatribes. My guess is that this is going to backfire: instead of making Democrats look worse, it's going to make Omar look better. (I don't like Omar, so it's kind of a lose-lose situation, but that's politics these days.)
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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby Fun With Mr. Fudge » Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:15 pm

Absentia wrote:The idea that this imbroglio is good for Trump is getting batted around a lot, and I'm very skeptical.

His approval rating among self-identified Republicans doesn't mean a whole lot, because at this point "Republican" and "Trump supporter" are pretty much synonymous. Many Republican voters who didn't like him aren't identifying as Republicans anymore, so there's an obvious selection bias. And on a related note, self-identified Republicans don't represent a large enough voting bloc for him to win in 2020 without support from independents, where his approval is in the low 30's.

It's also trendy to claim that because Ilhan Omar is unpopular with swing voters, Trump is secretly a genius for forcing Democrats to defend her. The problem with this idea is the assumption that swing voters dislike Omar more than they dislike bald-faced racist diatribes. My guess is that this is going to backfire: instead of making Democrats look worse, it's going to make Omar look better. (I don't like Omar, so it's kind of a lose-lose situation, but that's politics these days.)


I hope your skepticism proves correct, but I don't really see this a "trendy" theory of the moment. Sure, Omar is the focus of the moment along with the other three Congresswomen, but I suspect that for a lot of people who think Trump was greatly aided by racial resentment and racism the first go round, this might seem like an uglier extension of that but essentially more of the same. At least it does to me. But I might have a dimmer view of the electorate than you. I don't know. As you might have already guessed, I'm just not sure how much the Bradley effect or something akin to it does or will affect people's publicly stated stances on Trump/Republican affiliation.
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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:29 pm

Fun With Mr. Fudge wrote:
Absentia wrote:The idea that this imbroglio is good for Trump is getting batted around a lot, and I'm very skeptical.

His approval rating among self-identified Republicans doesn't mean a whole lot, because at this point "Republican" and "Trump supporter" are pretty much synonymous. Many Republican voters who didn't like him aren't identifying as Republicans anymore, so there's an obvious selection bias. And on a related note, self-identified Republicans don't represent a large enough voting bloc for him to win in 2020 without support from independents, where his approval is in the low 30's.

It's also trendy to claim that because Ilhan Omar is unpopular with swing voters, Trump is secretly a genius for forcing Democrats to defend her. The problem with this idea is the assumption that swing voters dislike Omar more than they dislike bald-faced racist diatribes. My guess is that this is going to backfire: instead of making Democrats look worse, it's going to make Omar look better. (I don't like Omar, so it's kind of a lose-lose situation, but that's politics these days.)


I hope your skepticism proves correct, but I don't really see this a "trendy" theory of the moment. Sure, Omar is the focus of the moment along with the other three Congresswomen, but I suspect that for a lot of people who think Trump was greatly aided by racial resentment and racism the first go round, this might seem like an uglier extension of that but essentially more of the same. At least it does to me. But I might have a dimmer view of the electorate than you. I don't know. As you might have already guessed, I'm just not sure how much the Bradley effect or something akin to it does or will affect people's publicly stated stances on Trump/Republican affiliation.


I should point out that in that poll and several others since then, independent and democrat support (what little there is) has dropped.

I've gone back and forth on this for a while, and l I think I fall on Absentia side of this. Saying that X amount of Republicans support trump is pointless, because they will all vote for him when the time comes due to negative partisanship. There has been some evidence that Trump has driven younger and a few more establishment voters from the party, meaning fewer voters on his side.

Trump lost the popular vote in 2020. He hasn't become more popular since. Barring some seismic change before 2020, his margin for error is very slim. Reminding what few undecided (how?!) voters why they are uncomfortable with him to rile up a base that's gonna vote for him anyways and wasn't enough to carry the pop vote or the midterm (a midterm with very high participation on both ends) doesn't seem a winning strategy.
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Last edited by Doodle Dee. Snickers on Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby Absentia » Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:37 pm

Fun With Mr. Fudge wrote:I hope your skepticism proves correct, but I don't really see this a "trendy" theory of the moment. Sure, Omar is the focus of the moment along with the other three Congresswomen, but I suspect that for a lot of people who think Trump was greatly aided by racial resentment and racism the first go round, this might seem like an uglier extension of that but essentially more of the same. At least it does to me. But I might have a dimmer view of the electorate than you. I don't know. As you might have already guessed, I'm just not sure how much the Bradley effect or something akin to it does or will affect people's publicly stated stances on Trump/Republican affiliation.


I think Trump's success at winning over the Republican base and taking the nomination was greatly aided by his appeals to racial resentment.

I think his success in the general election was mostly because Hillary Clinton was deeply unpopular and a lot of independents decided to roll the dice on a relative unknown instead of voting for somebody they knew they hated. In 2020, that shoe will be on the other foot: even if the Dem nominee is scary, they know what they're getting with Trump and they're currently rejecting it by a two to one margin.

I'm not just pulling this out of my ass, either:

Spoiler: show
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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby Fun With Mr. Fudge » Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:48 am

Absentia wrote:I think Trump's success at winning over the Republican base and taking the nomination was greatly aided by his appeals to racial resentment.

I think his success in the general election was mostly because Hillary Clinton was deeply unpopular and a lot of independents decided to roll the dice on a relative unknown instead of voting for somebody they knew they hated. In 2020, that shoe will be on the other foot: even if the Dem nominee is scary, they know what they're getting with Trump and they're currently rejecting it by a two to one margin.

I'm not just pulling this out of my ass, either:

Spoiler: show


Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying the man is going to win the general election purely by his nastier brand of identity politics. I'm also not claiming that the base alone is why he won in 2016. Yes, Clinton was a terrible candidate. Even so, in my view she was still obviously a better pick than Trump, who was clearly odious and dishonest in the last election, too.

My suspicion/pessimistic view is that Trump's current strategy will help him more than it will hurt him. Specifically, if my hunch is right, his side would/will be more motivated to go out and actually vote because of his current tactics than if he didn't do them. He's probably also banking on evangelicals coming out in droves because of the Supreme Court implications and the fact that he delivered Kavanaugh.

Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:Trump lost the popular vote in 2020. He hasn't become more popular since. Barring some seismic change before 2020, his margin for error is very slim. Reminding what few undecided (how?!) voters why they are uncomfortable with him to rile up a base that's gonna vote for him anyways and wasn't enough to carry the pop vote or the midterm (a midterm with very high participation on both ends) doesn't seem a winning strategy.


If the Dems lose, which I think should be less likely than victory but is still something I don't rule out at this point, it won't be because Trump expanded his base. But he needs his side angry and energized to narrowly hold on in key states. According to one scenario, Trump could lose the popular vote by 5 million and still eke out a victory.

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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby Tesseracts » Fri Jul 19, 2019 4:33 pm

Since nobody has posted this yet, here's a video of Trump fans chanting "send her back."

I find it really horrifying that people think they can revoke someone's citizenship just because they don't like them.

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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby tinyrick » Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:45 pm

iMURDAu wrote:I'm so close to getting a bingo.

Kick a puppy, kick a puppy, c'mon already.


I need saying the n-word on camera.
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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby Fun With Mr. Fudge » Sat Jul 20, 2019 9:36 am

Fudge wrote:This controversy also gave Trump a new rallying cry -- as in a thing people will cry at his rallies: "Send her back."


Tesseracts wrote:Since nobody has posted this yet, here's a video of Trump fans chanting "send her back."


Is that your way of calling me nobody? On second thought, don't answer. I know I'm nobody here.
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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby NathanLoiselle » Sat Jul 20, 2019 10:37 pm

Wait. You get the title Nobody?? I'll fight you for it.
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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby iMURDAu » Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:58 pm

#deportMelanija

Can't believe I didn't think of this immediately. Here yet again the "send her back" crowd is so hilariously ignorant and hyped up to stroke an old man's ego and nether regions that they conveniently forget his current wife was not born in America. Oh and her parents were allowed in via chain migration which is one of the things he's railed against but fuck me that story is nearly a year old.

Did I spell her name wrong? No. I didn't. That's the name her mother gave her. That "j" though... doesn't look or sound too American, seems idk.... foreign.

Did I mention that all of his children are with women who aren't from America? Is that public knowledge? Literally all of his descendants have that scary foreign blood running through them. But they're not exactly dark skinned so....
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Re: Donald Trump tells congresswomen to go back

Postby tinyrick » Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:34 am

iMURDAu wrote:#deportMelanija

Can't believe I didn't think of this immediately. Here yet again the "send her back" crowd is so hilariously ignorant and hyped up to stroke an old man's ego and nether regions that they conveniently forget his current wife was not born in America. Oh and her parents were allowed in via chain migration which is one of the things he's railed against but fuck me that story is nearly a year old.

Did I spell her name wrong? No. I didn't. That's the name her mother gave her. That "j" though... doesn't look or sound too American, seems idk.... foreign.

Did I mention that all of his children are with women who aren't from America? Is that public knowledge? Literally all of his descendants have that scary foreign blood running through them. But they're not exactly dark skinned so....


They white though. Melania might want to lay off the tanning beds. She's just a couple shades away from what I consider scary.
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