by Fun With Mr. Fudge » Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:48 am
Absentia wrote:I think Trump's success at winning over the Republican base and taking the nomination was greatly aided by his appeals to racial resentment.
I think his success in the general election was mostly because Hillary Clinton was deeply unpopular and a lot of independents decided to roll the dice on a relative unknown instead of voting for somebody they knew they hated. In 2020, that shoe will be on the other foot: even if the Dem nominee is scary, they know what they're getting with Trump and they're currently rejecting it by a two to one margin.
I'm not just pulling this out of my ass, either:
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying the man is going to win the general election purely by his nastier brand of identity politics. I'm also not claiming that the base alone is why he won in 2016. Yes, Clinton was a terrible candidate. Even so, in my view she was still obviously a better pick than Trump, who was clearly odious and dishonest in the last election, too.
My suspicion/pessimistic view is that Trump's current strategy will help him more than it will hurt him. Specifically, if my hunch is right, his side would/will be more motivated to go out and actually vote because of his current tactics than if he didn't do them. He's probably also banking on evangelicals coming out in droves because of the Supreme Court implications and the fact that he delivered Kavanaugh.
Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:Trump lost the popular vote in 2020. He hasn't become more popular since. Barring some seismic change before 2020, his margin for error is very slim. Reminding what few undecided (how?!) voters why they are uncomfortable with him to rile up a base that's gonna vote for him anyways and wasn't enough to carry the pop vote or the midterm (a midterm with very high participation on both ends) doesn't seem a winning strategy.
If the Dems lose, which I think
should be less likely than victory but is still something I don't rule out at this point, it won't be because Trump expanded his base. But he needs his side angry and energized to narrowly hold on in key states. According to one scenario, Trump could lose the popular vote by 5 million and still eke out a victory.