IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:22 am

gisambards wrote:
When did the question turn from "I don't know why Fox News isn't considered mainstream despite being popular? it should be" which I answered with "It's more like alternative media than not and has a much different effect on culture" to "is republicanism mainstream"?


It happened just before everyone in the forum clapped.

Personally, I would disagree that Fox being "more like alternative media than not and [having] a much different effect on culture" means it can't be considered mainstream, and I would be happy to discuss it with whoever made that argument, but unfortunately in this timeline he seems not to exist and we got someone gibbering about how we're all libtards instead.


Just my two cents, I've always wondered this, and I think Fox itself embraces and tries to reinforce the 'not mainstream' image despite having the largest audience of cable news (a bit of an asterisk is that Fox news is the ONLY conservative cable news source, while other viewers are split between like...twenty different options, but still). It's kind of a chicken-egg thing, because I think Fox News really created this narrative, which conservatives latch onto, which fed into Fox News, etc...

See, it kinda feeds into this attitude conservatives have these days. To them, they're the rebels gloriously fighting for freedom against liberal chauvinism (and more baldly, fighting to save this country from itself) when the reality is that they've dominated our politics since Reagan, are slowly losing that power, and are as much the underdogs as the Galactic Empire. It's why Trump can say with a straight face that he's an underdog, because sure, he's a silver-spoon fed crook, but he's 'fighting' the establishment. It gives this certain class of conservatives the feeling that the other side is always worse, that they're the good guys against the bad guys rather than an old political order that's decaying as old political orders do. Fox kinda plays this narrative up, and it makes conservatives feel good about themselves in this bitterly polarized era.

To put it another way, it's kinda like how the New England Patriots kept calling themselves underdogs before the last Superbowl when literally nobody ever counts them out, because just calling themselves the perennial champions nobody outside the northeast likes just doesn't have the same self-motivating effect.
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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby Crimson847 » Sat Apr 20, 2019 4:06 am

A Combustible Lemon wrote:Fox and WSJ are not Mainstream Media TM because they don't have a profound effect in the cultural space. Fox is known as "that channel that had to claim they were entertainment instead of news" by people who don't particularly carry water for CNN or NBC.

The idea that popularity is the only criterion is weird. What is the stream in mainstream? It's the stream of information, it's the depth of penetration. How deep does Fox's stuff penetrate compared to the BBC or CNN? Fucking SNL has better penetration than Fox. Fox's audience is much older and much less online.

Nor does it count the fact that Fox is often saying things that only Fox is saying, and there's a pretty clear clumping of what stories are reported on how by what groups of papers.

When they're reporting the exact same news, it's not accurate to count Fox's ratings opposed to individual other channels. There's one of Fox and ten of the other.

Fox News is alternative media the same way women are a minority. They aren't, but are in all the relevant ways.


Oh, I buy that they're "alternative" media, since they do present an alternative to the previously dominant media behemoths and originated precisely because people wanted something different from that old shit. If we let Rock & Roll Hall of Fame members like Pearl Jam get away with calling themselves "alternative" on those grounds, might as well let Fox do the same.

"Mainstream", however, to me is very strongly related to popularity because popularity and credibility together define what influence a media outlet has. It's true that perceptions of Fox's credibility drop off among moderates and even more so among Democrats, and this keeps them from being anywhere near Walter Cronkite-level credible with the general public. Given that center-left outlets like MSNBC are having similar credibility problems among right-leaning and moderate viewers, though, I'm not sure how this distinguishes Fox and friends from the rest of the "mainstream media" pack.

A Combustible Lemon wrote:Do you live in a world where parents are going around trying to stop teens from sucking dicks with multiple shades of lipstick or do you live in a world where that was laughed off?

Do you live in a world where videogames were in danger of being banned for being dangerous or do you live in a world where Jack Thompson got disbarred?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rainbow_party_(sexuality)

The idea of the rainbow party was publicized in October 2003 on the episode of The Oprah Winfrey Show titled "Is Your Child Leading a Double Life?", which was about the trend of increasing sexual promiscuity among American youth and the lack of parental awareness of the sexual practices of their children. In the O Magazine Michelle Burford asserted, among other things, that many teens across the United States engaged in rainbow parties.[4]


Apparently people are willing to make fun of ridiculous stories from left-leaning media sources as well.

Regarding Jack's failure to get video games banned, what does MSNBC's failure to get any meaningful federal gun legislation passed say about their cultural influence? The Bill of Rights is a damned hard thing to attack no matter who you are.


The other problem here is the age of the examples. I'm happy to concede that MSNBC probably had more credibility than Fox in 2003, since the former had yet to hire Rachel Maddow and Keith Olbermann's tenure was yet young. Today, though, I'm not so sure.

Do you live in a world where Obama was investigated for being born outside of the USA or do you live in a world where republicans elected to oppose obama because of all the smears didn't do that?


I live in a world where Obama and Clinton were investigated for several years after Benghazi, which like the Mueller investigation and unlike the birther theory was based on an actual fuckup that merited investigating. I also live in a world where it was Rod Rosenstein, a Trump appointee, who appointed the special counsel, implying that being suspicious when a president fires the FBI head who's investigating him and then lies about why he did it isn't just a crazy Democrat thing.
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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby Absentia » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:21 am

If anyone is interested, Axios has a tagged, searchable version of the report that allows you to quickly find all references to a particular event or entity. Very useful.

https://www.axios.com/explore-a-detailed-version-of-the-mueller-report-5f7cab5b-9c53-46bc-abaa-bd6b7b3e6d66.html

For example, if you want to find the bit where Sarah Sanders admits to lying in a press conference:

Spoiler: show
Image
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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby iMURDAu » Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:14 pm

I declare shenanigans on that link. I typed in "butt" and it said "no results". Same for "dick".

No doubt when you type "ass" it auto-populates Julian Assange but that's just easy ironic comedy done unintentionally by how the site was coded. I'm not impressed Axios. You can't tell me there's no mention of butt or dick anywhere in the Mueller Report. It just wasn't "important enough" to slap a tab on. smh
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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby Aquila89 » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:18 pm

Absentia wrote:
For example, if you want to find the bit where Sarah Sanders admits to lying in a press conference:


Not much of a revelation, it's literally her job.
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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby Absentia » Wed Apr 24, 2019 8:07 pm

Here's the same guy I linked earlier, explaining why Mueller framed the report the way that he did:



Basically: Mueller accepted the DOJ policy stating that a sitting president cannot be indicted. Based on this, Mueller further concluded that it would be improper for him to directly accuse the president of committing a crime because he would have no legal forum to prove his innocence, and this would constitute a denial of his constitutional rights to a speedy trial, to face his accusers, and so on.

In other words, Mueller's interpretation of the law is that there are no possible circumstances and no amount of incriminating evidence that could have led him to conclude, in his official capacity, that Trump committed a crime.

This is important because the Trump camp has been arguing that the lack of a clear legal finding of criminality in the report is proof that this was all a witch hunt. Anybody making that argument doesn't understand (or chooses to ignore) the premise that Mueller was working from.
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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby cmsellers » Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:55 am

I'm starting to come around on impeachment, especially after reading this. Which isn't to say that that I'm in support, merely that I've gone from strongly opposed to only regular opposed. I'm no longer convinced that impeaching Trump will hurt Democrats. I think the most likely outcome is that it has no effect, and I have believed almost from Trump's inauguration that impeachment, given what we knew even before the Mueller report, would be the right thing to do if not for political considerations.

The problem, of course is, the right-wing media will, 100%, see impeachment as politically motivated and hammer that claim hard. There is a chance that impeachment could move things in Trump's favor. What has me particularly concerned is how certain Democratic senators could not resist the urge to grandstand during the Kavanaugh hearings, and while the Republican senators made themselves look far, far, worse, it was still not a good look for Harris or Booker. Impeachment would be in the House (though if impeached, Trump would be tried in the Senate), where you just know that AOC, the new boogeyman of the right now that Hillary has finally lapsed into irrelevance, will give the right-wing media some delicious soundbites, possibly even accurate in context.

I think that there's a moral imperative for Congress to perform its oversight duty, to say that Donald Trump has committed crimes, is guilty of severe corruption, and that this is not normal. This is particularly important in light of how Barr spun the report, a narrative picked up enthusiastically by the right-wing media. Congressional Republicans haven't played fair since 1994, and have gotten increasingly worse. They're now calling, again, for an investigation of the investigation, and by ruling out impeachment the Democrats are once again conceding ground to the Republicans' one-sided destruction of institutional norms.

But of course, like the Congressional Democratic leadership, I am terrified that impeachment could backfire politically. I don't think Clinton is a good example; at the time the public saw it as the president lying over a blowjob. And even if it were, it didn't hurt the Republicans all that much; they held the House and captured the presidency two years later. At this point, I am convinced, logically, that impeachment is the right thing to do from an institutional and moral perspective. But the nagging fear that it might, just might, tip the balance to four more years of Trump is enough for me to still want to take the coward's way out.
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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby Absentia » Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:14 am

I've read a lot of opinions on both sides, and come to similar conclusions.

I think the correct play for now is for House Dems to hold hearings without committing one way or the other on the question of impeachment. At the very least they need to hear from Mueller. And, as sad as it is to say, they can keep their eye on polls about what voters would prefer. But at some point I think the rubber has to meet the road; for all the damage that Trump has done to the institutions of government, it would be even worse to capitulate without even making an effort to do the right thing. At that point they'd be no better than the cowed Republicans.

And at any rate, I'm not convinced that it would be a bad thing for Democrats to make every GOP senator whose seat is up in 2020 defend a vote to acquit, particularly the ones who are already on tape arguing that Bill Clinton's dishonesty was enough to justify impeachment.
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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby Crimson847 » Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:52 am

At this point I see little compelling reason to push any congressional action that has virtually no hope of succeeding, including impeachment under current circumstances. For every controversial political action, there is an equal and opposite political reaction, which is why being completely out of power is such a salve for a party's image (and probably why Democrats have stopped overperforming in special elections since they took the House). That means every big shot taken has to count--it was probably worth it for Democrats to get drubbed in 2010 in exchange for passing Obamacare, but trading a failed attempt at repeal for a similar drubbing in 2018 wasn't so worth it for Republicans.

Impeachment is a very big shot, one that currently divides Democrats and unites Republicans. That means Democrats shouldn't take it unless they're confident they can get Trump removed.

A better approach IMO would be something like what Norm Ornstein suggests in this Twitter thread. Typos in copy:

Some thoughts on where Democrats should go from here. They have a clear constitutional responsibility to take the evidence and conclusions in this report to their logical conclusion. But I would not start with a formal impeachment process.
I would get the Judiciary, Intelligence and Homeland Security Committees to do thorough hearings and roundtables on every facet of the Mueller Report, getting every element and charge aired fully. Not in the usual hearing format. Get experienced counsel to do an hour to start
each hearing, questioning witnesses like Mueller and laying out the background and framework. Then do not fall back on usual five minute rounds for each member of the committee. Do fifteen minute rounds, many by counsel, but coordinated in advance to focus on particular elements
With followup questions. Do some roundtables with experienced prosecutors and intelligence professionals, like @PreetBharara @Mimirocah1 @jmclaughlinSAIS and Chuck Rosenberg, along with election security experts and discuss in depth the nature of collusion, meaning of obstruction,
The Russian threat and other cybersecurity threats to the elections. After all this, with the foundation in place, it would be appropriate to move to an official impeachment inquiry. The message has to be that this is done predicated on powerful evidence of high crimes.
It would be foolish to jump the gun. It would be dereliction not to move in this direction.


This is what I think Democrats should be doing: investigate the details Mueller wasn't able to follow up on, hold hearings that make the details of what happened very clear to the public, and pull the trigger on impeachment only if they can prepare the political ground well enough to put success within reach.
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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby cmsellers » Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:25 am

Again, the point is to push back against the erosion of norms. What Trump has done is not legal, it's not acceptable, it's not normal. And yet, because Mueller said that he can't meat the "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard for conspiracy, and it would be unfair to charge Trump with obstruction when he can't be tried except by Congress, Republicans have been crowing that this absolves Trump, it was all a partisan witch hunt, and they need to investigate Mueller for this. The erosion of norms Republicans have been pushing since Gingrich took over in 1994 has at worst barely hurt them and at best often helped them, and the Democrats need to begin pushing back much harder than they have.

As for the political effects, The question isn't what Republicans think about impeachment, but rather how it would affect potential swing voters. And rationally, I don't think the act of impeaching Trump would harm Democrats politically all that much, if at all. It barely hurt Republicans when they did it to Clinton, and he was guilty of a lot less than Trump was. As Absentia pointed out, t could even help them, if purple-state Republican senators have to defend an acquittal vote. Of course, when Trump is currently sitting on solidly unpopular approval ratings, the upside off it helping Democrats is arguably less than the downside of it hurting them.

As for gauging public reaction, I wouldn't rely on polls alone. Opinion polls rely heavily on framing (you can't capture the nuance of many people's views), and public opinion is notoriously fickle. I still remember how much support for the Iraq War shot up once W. actually started the invasion. And it's been amazing how quickly many Republicans can change their opinion on everything from Russia to trade to the what personal traits are disqualifying in a president, at least when it benefits their "team" too do so. (I'm sure a lot of Democrats are the same way, but they haven't had a Trump to make such drastic shifts to party doctrine.)

This isn't to say I support impeaching Trump, but that's more because, after the grandstanding Harris and Booker did in the Kavanaugh hearings, I'm worried about the soundbytes people like AOC and Ilhan Omar are going to generate during impeachment proceedings, and how that might affect ex-Republicans/right-leaning swing voters who are currently leaning against Trump but already worry the far-left of the Democratic Party is the party's future. I'm not at all convinced that the act of impeaching Trump, per se is likely to be politically harmful, and I believe there's a very strong legal and moral case for doing it.
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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby Absentia » Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:37 am

I'm not sure what you're worried that AOC is going to say about impeachment that will be all that embarrassing. Russiagate isn't related to any of her pet causes, which is why she rarely talks about it, and I'm not even sure there's a "radical leftist" position she could take that would sound noticeably different from the mainstream Dems who are eager to unload on Trump.
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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby cmsellers » Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:54 am

Thing is, AOC has been sounding the impeachment drums all along, so she can't say, as I might were I a Democratic congressman, that I do not believe impeachment is the right move politically, but the Mueller Report has created an impression of such lawless behavior on the part of Donald Trump that I believe it is absolutely necessary. So even if she makes the exact same arguments for impeachment as any other Democrat, it may come across as more disingenuous coming from her.

Plus, I'm worried about the manner in which she might speak, more than the content. I don't remember Booker saying anything obviously out of line in the Kavanaugh hearings, but he still came across like he was making it all about his presidential run, which is a bad look. And fairly or not, one of the things a lot of people seem to like least about AOC is that she's really good at drawing attention to herself; it's basically the only power she has. But I'm not actually sure if this is just dyed-in-the-wool Republicans who feel this way, or if right-leaning but anti-Trump voters who follow sources like the National Review feel this way about her as well.
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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby Absentia » Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:20 am

If your standard for wise politics is that not one of the 235 members of the House Democrats will take an opportunity to grandstand and come off like an idiot and get mocked in National Review, it's going to be hard to get behind much of anything.

And has AOC been beating the drum all along? I saw a tweet from her saying that after reading Mueller she was just now announcing her support for impeachment. I guess it could have been a lie, since I don't actually pay attention to what she says most of the time.
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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby Fun With Mr. Fudge » Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:52 am

cmsellers wrote:The problem, of course is, the right-wing media will, 100%, see impeachment as politically motivated and hammer that claim hard. There is a chance that impeachment could move things in Trump's favor.


I think any investigation into Trump will be called a witch hunt and "presidential harassment" whether or not he gets impeached.

Also, remember when a Fox News personality referred to a fist bump between Barack and Michelle Obama as "a terrorist fist jab?" Sure, this person was taken off air, and of course not every right-wing outlet spews this kind of nonsense, but there are plenty of other ridiculous talking points and double-standards. Remember when Obama was condemned for wanting to have talks with Kim Jong-Un? Obviously, there are more outlets than Fox and some are even worse, but Fox is mainstream in my opinion -- not to rekindle that debate -- and I'm too lazy to go through/look for other examples I think fit this pattern. Hopefully that doesn't undermine my point too much. Overall, my position on that issue is that placating or outright capitulating to right-wing media or politicians won't make them care about being fair if they weren't trying to be in the first place.

The above point is why I'm not concerned about the right-wing's portrayal of AOC. It's already absurd. Do Fox News commentators or most outspoken congressional Republicans -- if any -- care about the fact that the Green New Deal was a proposed resolution and not a bill that would require action if passed? No. Do they care that it says nothing about banning beef or trying to make a vehicle or aircraft more environmentally friendly is not the same as attempting to ban them? No. Instead the resolution is presented as an attempt to outlaw hamburgers and airplanes. Many of the people attacking her never intended to do it with a shred of intellectual honesty, so why worry about that during possible impeachment proceedings?


I think that there's a moral imperative for Congress to perform its oversight duty, to say that Donald Trump has committed crimes, is guilty of severe corruption, and that this is not normal. This is particularly important in light of how Barr spun the report, a narrative picked up enthusiastically by the right-wing media. Congressional Republicans haven't played fair since 1994, and have gotten increasingly worse. They're now calling, again, for an investigation of the investigation, and by ruling out impeachment the Democrats are once again conceding ground to the Republicans' one-sided destruction of institutional norms.


Here I absolutely agree with you. There are things in this report and that Trump has done in general that Nixon wouldn't have gotten away with. Granted, Nixon resigned, but the thing that apparently prompted that resignation was the revelation that he asked the CIA to intervene in the FBI's investigation of Watergate. The CIA denied Nixon's request, according to him, but the belief that he obstructed justice was bad enough that he thought Republicans would finally turn on him.

Let's look at the articles of impeachment Nixon would likely have been charged with.

Per the New York Times

The first article charged that Mr. Nixon, “using the powers of his high office, engaged personally and through his subordinates and agents In a course of conduct or plan designated to delay, impede, and obstruct the investigation” of the Watergate burglary and “to cover up, conceal and protect those responsible.” The second article said the President “has repeatedly engaged in conduct violating the constitutional rights of citizens” and “impairing the due and proper administration of justice.” The third article charged him with having “willfully disobeyed” the committee's subpoenas for tapes and documents. Two other articles, dealing with the secret bombing of Cambodia and Mr. Nixon's income taxes and personal finances, were not approved by the committee.


Admittedly, things were partisan back then as well, though probably not as much as now, and the majority of Republicans who voted during the impeachment inquiry opted not to turn against Nixon. But even that was unlikely after what the tapes revealed in terms of obstruction. And just to be clear, as I've pointed out earlier in this thread, it was never proven that Nixon ordered the Watergate break-in.

Sellers wrote:But the nagging fear that it might, just might, tip the balance to four more years of Trump is enough for me to still want to take the coward's way out.


I understand this concern. But I'm more concerned about the precedent it sets when a president tries to obstruct justice repeatedly and thumbs their nose at the country's system of checks and balances and no one does anything.
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Re: IT'S HAPPENING--The Mueller Report Drops

Postby cmsellers » Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:05 am

David Frum came within a hair of saying "OK, Trump needs to be impeached." On one hand, Frum is a NeverTrumper, but on the other, he has been condemning the idea of impeachment since the Mueller report was released. This comes on the heels of Tea Party congressman Justin Amash saying Trump has committed impeachable offenses, thereby guaranteeing himself a strong primary challenge.

Meanwhile, another article in The Atlantic and one in Sabato's Crystal Ball make a pretty good case that impeaching Bill Clinton not only didn't cost the Republicans much in 2000, but may even have helped elect W.

So at this point, I have to say "it's time for Democrats to open impeachment hearings." The odds that Pelosi comes around without polls showing majority support for impeachment, however, remain low.
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