Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

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Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby cmsellers » Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:30 am

I'm surprised there isn't a thread on this. There's a caravan of thousands of migrants from Honduras which picked up members in Guatemala, crossed into Mexico, and is trying to make the US border. The governments of Guatemala and Mexico both failed to stop the caravan crossing into their territory, and Trump is threatening to send troops to the border. The Atlantic has two interesting recent articles on this by conservative writers.

Reihan Salam, executive editor of the National Review, points out that Nicaragua recently rejected a radical proposal by economist Paul Roemer (who just won the Nobel Prize in economics) to establish a charter city, a special autonomous region in Nicaragua which would have been partially governed by Canada and Mauritius. Charter cities are an idea I've supported for awhile, but a combination of the governments of developed countries being wary of the "colonialism" angle and developing countries having unstable leadership which never lets them get established means that every attempt Roemer has made to start one has been defeated so far.

David Frum, meanwhile, points out that not only does the caravan play into Trump's hand, but the reaction of many Democrats to essentially embrace the caravan may cost them in the upcoming midterms.

I'm not sure that Democrats have any really good political solution here. Support Trump's calls to prevent them from entering via military means, and you may have a rally-round-the-flag effect, similar to the one W saw after 9/11. Support their right to enter as refugees and you play into Trump's hands. Do nothing and you look weak. I don't think the Democrats have any really good political option here; which means that for once the only real question is what is the right thing to do.

Allowing refugees to force the borders through strength of numbers will encourage more of them to try it. It also potentially breaks the power of the coyotes if it works, which makes traveling to the US safer for migrants, but almost certainly leads to a long-term nativist backlash. I read recently that Canada is having a backlash of its own because of illegal migrants crossing unguarded entrances to the US, and Canada is far less nativist than the US already. It rankles people when foreigners are allowed to break laws.

Alternatively, we can block the border and insist that these migrants remain in Mexico and apply for asylum there. Immigrants in Mexico have been the subject of targeted violence, and it also presumably requires these immigrants to live off their own savings, unless Mexico grants them work permits. But the strength in numbers and visibility may protect them. I think that the right thing to do is probably to insist that they remain in Mexico while their applications are processed, while also helping Mexico support them, a situation similar to that Europe negotiated with Turkey for Syrian refugees.

But I can't really see Trump agreeing to cooperate with Mexico on this; it's in his interests to have the situation as adversarial as possible. And in light of that, I think that either the caravan ends up in US detention centers, or we have some horrifying footage as US forces use force against refugees trying to cross the border. I suppose, in light of this false choice I expect Trump to force on us, the rule of law should prevail and Democrats should insist that the migrants apply for asylum in Mexico, while also proposing cooperating with Mexico on accommodating these migrants and on the enforcement of the Mexican-Guatemalan border, knowing that Trump will never actually go for the latter. But it doesn't feel like a good choice. It's a tragic and frustrating situation all around.
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Re: Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby Absentia » Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:38 am

I might have more to say about this later, but one thing I definitely want to point out: Trump can threaten all he likes, but he can't legally deploy the military inside of US borders without approval from Congress (which is currently not in session). He can ask states to deploy National Guard forces, but he's already tried that in the past and been mostly ignored, and there are laws restricting what NG units can and can't do with respect to immigration/customs enforcement anyway.
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Re: Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby cmsellers » Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:47 am

Yes, but those previous times there wasn't a caravan of migrants heading towards the border with the intention of crossing it illegally. I'm sure it will play well in blue states to refuse to deploy the National Guard for this, and it also doesn't make any sense to use the National Guard to stop a few thousand immigrants, but how will it play in red and purple states?
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Re: Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby NathanLoiselle » Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:09 am

Immigrants entering at non-border spots on the border isn't illegal in Canada. Also only Toronto and Quebec are upset about this. People in the rest of the country are meh because the only ones complaining are the ones always complaining.
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Re: Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby JamishT » Thu Oct 25, 2018 4:57 am

I've heard various things about this lil' caravan (check out his Soundcloud) like it's happened before (example, though I could only find an instance of that from August), they can't actually apply for asylum in their home countries (which is weird to me), and the President can't back up his claims about "Middle Easterners" and MS-13 being among the people.


(that whole thread is maddening)

I can't particularly blame these people for trying to apply for asylum, but I wish they could do it in their home countries.
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Re: Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby Crimson847 » Thu Oct 25, 2018 5:14 pm

What's this about them having the declared intent to enter illegally? My understanding is that they say they're coming here to apply for asylum at a port of entry, which is their right under US law. Last time this happened, that's what most of the caravaners who reached the border did. Some did try to sneak across, but given the advance warning the caravan's mere existence provided us, they didn't get far.

I have plenty of sympathy for those who want immigration law enforced. I have sympathy for those like Frum who don't believe that the situation these people are fleeing is desperate enough to merit acceptance of their asylum claims. I have sympathy for the idea that the system needs reform. However, I have little sympathy for those who want the military deployed against refugees who so far have broken none of our laws, to stop them from doing something they have every right under our laws to do. And when it's put to them that way, I suspect most American voters would agree.

Therefore, for embattled Democrats the line is simple: uphold the law. If these people want to apply for asylum legally they are welcome to do so; Democrats (unlike Trump) won't try to violate US laws to stop people who have broken none. If they try to enter illegally, the Border Patrol (and if necessary, state National Guards) will do what's necessary to stop them. Period. Use that "law-and-order" framing against the GOP, especially in red state Senate contests.
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Re: Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby sunglasses » Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:51 pm

There have been issues with people trying to seek asylum lately.

I'm also frustrated with the continued narrative of "They're seeking to cross the border illegally." They're seeking asylum, this is how they have to apply for it, as Jamish pointed out.

They have to wait in Mexico for long periods of time before being even processed. Then held while their case is filed.

We also have a bridge now preventing some of them from stepping onto US soil to apply for asylum. And Sessions declared back in June that fleeing gang violence is no longer credible to apply for asylum.

What you're seeing is desperate people who know of the challenges ahead, especially in regards to seeking asylum, but things are SO BAD where they are that they're coming anyway. It's heart wrenching. I wish there was a better process too, Jams, but there isn't.
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Re: Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby Windy » Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:19 pm

Last I checked Mexico isn't a warzone, there's no reason they can't move to a different part of Mexico.
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Re: Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby sunglasses » Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:53 am

Mexico is part of North America. Those seeking asylum are from Central America. They are not from Mexico. They are often from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras.
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Re: Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby KleinerKiller » Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:13 am

Trump is deploying the troops.

Over 5,200 U.S. soldiers will be deployed to the border in what is OF FUCKING COURSE being called Operation Faithful Patriot. Even though the caravan won't arrive for another month and they plan to file for legal asylum, they will find a full military operation waiting for them. It is an enormous waste of taxpayer money, and I have absolutely no faith that these soldiers won't be given orders to massacre the asylum seekers as opposed to merely projecting the image of fascist intimidation.

This is the U.S. now. This is the free world.
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Re: Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby JamishT » Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:12 am

The troops being sent to the border are indeed a waste of money. From what I see, this is largely a political stunt. There is no way that a massacre order would be given or followed. This is a stunt to convince his base that these are DANGEROUS PEOPLE and that he's doing something about them.

The notion that Trump will massacre thousands of wannabe migrants has the same basis in reality as the notion that there is a deep state government funded by Soros, the Clintons, and the Obamas or something.
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Re: Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby KleinerKiller » Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:28 am

JamishT wrote:The notion that Trump will massacre thousands of wannabe migrants has the same basis in reality as the notion that there is a deep state government funded by Soros, the Clintons, and the Obamas or something.


At this point, I can't be confident that any projected course of action for him is ridiculous and beyond imagining. He has said too much, tried too much, and done too much for me to be secure. I want to believe you're right, but I'm not exactly firm in the idea that he wouldn't willfully order a major humanitarian disaster if his base really wanted it (which many of them do -- that's the point of this whole "subhuman invaders vs the U.S. military" narrative) and he thought it would secure him more support.

At the very least, even if he doesn't order a massacre, I am pretty confident this stunt he's pulled will result in any number of innocent lives lost because any one out of 5,200 soldiers bought into his narrative and got an itchy trigger finger.
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Re: Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby Absentia » Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:15 am

Like I said earlier, this is probably illegal under Reconstruction-era laws limiting the use of military troops on domestic soil. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lawsuit from the California state government. It's also a troubling circumvention of the legislative process after Congress has repeatedly refused to play along with Trump's ridiculous border security demands.

And yes, in practical terms this is nothing but very expensive theatrics. The troops are being deployed to "harden" the border against illegal crossings, despite the fact that the migrants continue to insist that they plan to go through the legal asylum process. It's not unreasonable to suggest that some number of them would attempt to enter illegally instead, but there's no indication that they intend to so in the kind of numbers that would require the military to get involved.

KleinerKiller wrote:At the very least, even if he doesn't order a massacre, I am pretty confident this stunt he's pulled will result in any number of innocent lives lost because any one out of 5,200 soldiers bought into his narrative and got an itchy trigger finger.


American soldiers aren't like local cops who get rattled if some protester starts yelling at them. They're highly trained and disciplined. I don't expect any unnecessary violence, just a lot of bad optics and wasted money.
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Re: Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby blehblah » Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:49 pm

sunglasses wrote:Mexico is part of North America. Those seeking asylum are from Central America. They are not from Mexico. They are often from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras.


Totally with you, SunnyI

I simply cannot imagine why those vacation places aren't fan-tastic-amaze-ballz for the locals. Sure, Iran-contra, and... erm... but that was years ago.

Whatever. It's an invasion of poor, hungry Irish Catholic mostly dirty brown Catholic - or whatever - people, and therefore must be stopped!

*Build the wall*

MANIA, all - Make America Not Irish Again

Geography and heritage; one helluva pill to swallow.
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Re: Caravan of Central American migrants head for US border

Postby iMURDAu » Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:49 pm

Once they arrive at the southern border here's the deal. Okay. Everyone needs to be on the same page.

These people have seen maps. Some have possibly even seen Google Earth at some point. But. They don't know miles. They know kilometers. So. We just say oh we'll send you a few miles north from here so you can live in "Oklahoma" and "Kansas" where the land is wide open and there's plenty of room to grow crops. You know, far away from the "hostile white folks in Texas".

Then we drive them those "few miles north" because what are they going to do say "oh it's been more than 250 kilometers senor"? And just dump 'em in Manitoba because Canada won't notice a few hundred panel vans flowing through over the course of a week. And what are they gonna do? They're so high they won't even notice 3000 new citizens. They'll think they just forgot about them and feel really sorry about it.
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