Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years ago

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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Crimson847 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:48 pm

cmsellers wrote:This Atlantic piece is interesting, and could explain why male Republican Senators' determination to rush him through, though not why Collins seems to be on board with him.

I will note though that "what Kavanaugh did is not a big deal anyways" is not an argument I've seen from conservative pundits. I've seen it from people who claim to be conflicted about this, and from some red state "person on the street" interviews I've seen. This suggests to me that maybe the pundits arguing for Kavanaugh know that it is a bad look and are trying the other tacks I've seen (though it is interesting that the liberal tears people don't seem to be using it) but it may still reflect what they and a lot of GOP politicians are thinking.

Also, @Windy: Trump is only become president for life because he gets re-elected and dies from a contaminated taco bowl right at the end of his second term.


I've seen the "not a big deal" argument explicitly raised here and there by pundits and the occasional politician, but it's mostly a factor in comment sections and social media and such, where it's everywhere. Available polling tends to support the idea that this is exactly what much of the GOP base believes, even if their leaders mostly aren't saying it.

What the folks at the top are doing is subtly feeding that sentiment (e.g. not taking the investigation seriously, sending the message that even if true the allegations aren't very important), but it's not clear to me that they understand that.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Absentia » Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:56 pm

The FBI report is being reviewed by the Senators now.

The line from Democrats is that it's not adequate because the FBI didn't actually interview Ford or Kavanaugh about the alleged incident, which does kind of seem like a massive oversight. But the people who actually matter, Flake and Collins, say they are satisfied with the report and they seem to be leaning Yes. So it looks like Kavanaugh is going to make it, and thus falls the last branch of the government that had any credibility.

In honor of Brett, I think I'm going to be doing some drinking tonight.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Aquila89 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:39 pm

Just get this over with already...
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Absentia » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:00 am

Off-topic discussion of social conservatism has been split to Loud Noises.

http://thecommentsection.org/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=11128
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby JamishT » Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:44 am

Aquila89 wrote:Just get this over with already...


That's what she said.

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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Australia » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:47 pm

JamishT wrote:
Aquila89 wrote:Just get this over with already...


That's what she said.

Really? Sounds like consent to me.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Absentia » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:59 pm

So after a couple weeks of national turmoil, we're right back where we started: 51-49 in favor of Kavanaugh. Flake, Collins, and Manchin(!) have all announced they are Yes, and Murkowski is the only Republican to defect. The final vote is tomorrow.

I wouldn't recommend going on Twitter right now unless you like angry people.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Crimson847 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:23 am

I'm surprised Murkowski defected; I was expecting a full house of Republicans and Manchin.

As for Twitter, I've already unfollowed the necessary people until the explosion dies down. Funny memes and cat pictures, that's the ticket.

Spoiler: show


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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby cmsellers » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:10 am

Crimson847 wrote:I'm surprised Murkowski defected; I was expecting a full house of Republicans and Manchin.

I am not surprised by any of it.

Collins declaring the PAC to support her opponent told me that she had already made up her mind to vote "yes," though it is still not clear to me why. Flake demanding an FBI investigation as a condition to vote "yes" told me he was just looking for political cover. Corker already declared his support.

Murkowski was silent, and knows that the Republican base in her state will always hate her and she depends on Democrats and Republicans if she's going to get primaried again, and she may also have voted "no" because it was genuinely the right thing.

I was sure that Manchin would vote "no" if Murkowski and one other Republican did, but the way he remained silent told me that he was planning on voting yes the moment the GOP reached 50 votes to confirm.

Interestingly, it was clear that Sasse would never be the 51st vote against, and might not even have been willing to be the 52nd, but I got the impression he may the only Republican voting for Kavanaugh who sees any real issue with what he is doing. Not sure if that makes it better or worse.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Absentia » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:28 am

I read that Manchin had communicated his intent to various people before Collins made her announcement. I also read that national progressive groups are threatening to pull support for him in his current race, which seems sort of counterproductive. That said, I won't exactly shed any tears for him if he does lose.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby cmsellers » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:35 am

Absentia wrote:I read that Manchin had communicated his intent to various people before Collins made her announcement. I also read that national progressive groups are threatening to pull support for him in his current race, which seems sort of counterproductive. That said, I won't exactly shed any tears for him if he does lose.

The question is, then, did Collins signal her position to him before he signaled his position to those people?

Regarding supporting Manchin, the interesting question is whether there are any future Trump court nominees that Manchin would vote against if the Democrats had fifty-one seats. If the answer is "yes," then Democrats desperately need his seat. But if the answer is "no," then electing Manchin in order to get fifty-one Senate seats is absolutely pointless if the Democrats take the House.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Crimson847 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:57 am

cmsellers wrote:Regarding supporting Manchin, the interesting question is whether there are any future Trump court nominees that Manchin would vote against if the Democrats had fifty-one seats. If the answer is "yes," then Democrats desperately need his seat. But if the answer is "no," then electing Manchin in order to get fifty-one Senate seats is absolutely pointless if the Democrats take the House.


Disagree. It would give Democrats majority status, which means they get to control who runs the Senate committees and what bills get voted on or don't get voted on. That changes three big things.

First, Republicans would no longer control Senate procedure, so ramming nominees through and limiting investigations of their record would no longer be possible. Remember, Corker and Flake are out after the election and their replacements in the GOP caucus will be Trumpier than they are, so with them and McCain gone there will be fewer NeverTrump types around to dissent when the process is violated too egregiously...unless Democrats can get to 51 seats. Then, even if Manchin ends up being down to vote for a nominee at the end of the process, Democratic leadership can at least crawl up said nominee's ass with a microscope first, which is really the most important thing to me. Alternately, they could (and probably would) not hold a vote at all so Manchin doesn't have to make that choice to begin with.

Second, it would allow Democrats to pass certain legislation via budget resolution as long as they can unite their caucus. Even if Trump resolves to veto everything, that itself would have political consequences. Daring Trump to veto a popular healthcare reform and GOP Senators to vote against it right before the 2020 elections, for instance, could pay dividends. If nothing else it would deprive McConnell of the same tool, which he's used to good effect in two elections running now.

Third, I really want to hear the words "former Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell".
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby cmsellers » Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:54 am

I don't know about the last one. At this point, part of me is morbidly curious. Is there any level to which he won't sink? Will anything he does ever backfire on him? What happens if you flip him on his back?

I've spent so much time watching this horrible reality show that I'm kind of invested now.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby cmsellers » Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:11 pm

So Kavanaugh just got confirmed, and I am seeing tons of Democrats saying they are glad because the other options were just and conservative and this way, it will help them in the midterms. Aside from the fact that that thinking is probably as delusional as the "blue wall," given the terrain the Senate is being fought on, I find this almost as upsetting as his confirmation.

The court has been tarnished possibly irreparably and we have a serial perjurer and angry, conspiracy-theorizing partisan who is probably a sexual predator on the Supreme Court. And the reaction of a lot of Democrats is that this is a good thing because they believe that he is no worse than any other Republican in how he will rule, and this way, maybe they get a midterm boost.

I'm not nearly as angry at these Democrats as I am at Senate Republicans, but Darwin, what is wrong with these people!?
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Fun With Mr. Fudge » Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:50 pm

cmsellers wrote:So Kavanaugh just got confirmed, and I am seeing tons of Democrats saying they are glad because the other options were just and conservative and this way, it will help them in the midterms. Aside from the fact that that thinking is probably as delusional as the "blue wall," given the terrain the Senate is being fought on, I find this almost as upsetting as his confirmation.

The court has been tarnished possibly irreparably and we have a serial perjurer and angry, conspiracy-theorizing partisan who is probably a sexual predator on the Supreme Court. And the reaction of a lot of Democrats is that this is a good thing because they believe that he is no worse than any other Republican in how he will rule, and this way, maybe they get a midterm boost.

I'm not nearly as angry at these Democrats as I am at Senate Republicans, but Darwin, what is wrong with these people!?


Agreed. This whole process has been stained by a stark lack of principles. In a similar vein I'm very bothered by this CNN report about Democrats angrily claiming Michael Avenatit helped tank their case against Kavanaugh

A host of Democratic senators and senior aides told CNN that the allegations from Avenatti's client gave the GOP an opening to conflate -- and dismiss -- all the allegations in one broad brush.

"Well you know at some point there were a lot of folks coming forward making all sorts of accusations," said Sen. Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat, when asked about the allegations raised by Avenatti and his client. "It turns it into a circus atmosphere and certainly that's not where we should be.""


Privately, the assessment was far more scathing.
"Democrats and the country would have been better off if Mr. Avenatti spent his time on his Iowa vanity project rather than meddling in Supreme Court fights," a senior Senate Democratic aide fumed, referring to Avenatti toying with the idea of seeking the Democratic presidential nomination. "His involvement set us back, absolutely."


I find it frustrating and disheartening that Democrats would buy into Republican's narrative that just because Avenatti represented Swetnick or that she was sued in unrelated cases that were thrown out, her claims automatically couldn't be believed. No one actually investigated her allegations, so we don't know whether there would have been corroborating evidence. Apparently, some Democrats have no problem dismissing claims that are politically inconvenient.
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