Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years ago

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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby IamNotCreepy » Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:47 pm

I think there are a couple of potential benefits for Democrats, but they're long shots. Both of them deal with the possibility of a Trump impeachment.

First, there's a chance they could get Kavanaugh's nomination withdrawn, and even though another conservative judge would get nominated instead, it could be one who is not so keen on absolute presidential power, including immunity from prosecution.

Second, if they can stall long enough, maybe Mueller will release a damning report against Trump. Then they can say that Trump shouldn't be allowed to nominate anybody until there are impeachment hearings or other congressional hearings. I'm sure Democrats would rather not have any Trump nominee on the bench in the case of a potential impeachment.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Cobra-D » Thu Sep 20, 2018 5:09 pm

JamishT wrote:But even if it did happen, it seems incredibly stupid to assume that someone never changed from the time that they were a teenager. I don't know if it's fair to have things from high school follow someone this far.


Yea agreed, he was just a teenager who made a stupid mistake probably, he shouldn’t have his life ruined over it.
I mean how many of us committed sexual assault on our classmates while fucking around? This shit happens from time to time, doesn’t mean we should have the consequences of sexually assaulting someone follow us for the rest of our life’s, especially after paying for them....or not paying for them in this case.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Marcuse » Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:32 pm

Cobra-D wrote:Yea agreed, he was just a teenager who made a stupid mistake probably, he shouldn’t have his life ruined over it. I mean how many of us committed petty theft on our classmates while fucking around? This shit happens from time to time, doesn’t mean we should have the consequences of stealing from someone follow us for the rest of our life’s, especially after paying for them....or not paying for them in this case.


It's wildly inconsistent to believe in rehabilitative justice and also think that a guy should be barred from any kind of humanity by a crime he may have committed almost four decades before. Rape is an especially awful crime, but also one where edge cases and indistinct cases proliferate. I'm very wary of condemning someone for something they cannot be proven to have done a long time ago and (as far as anyone is aware) hasn't repeated.

Overall I'm extremely wary of what I'm going to term the deployment of this allegation as a political tool to obstruct the normal process of approval. Regardless of the truth or falsehood of the case, given it can't be proven either way, it serves only the political purposes of people who oppose the nomination of Kavanaugh to the SCOTUS, and I find that rather cynical and a poor way to make use of someone who claims to be a victim of sexual assault.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:47 pm

You can't rehabilitate someone who reduces themselves down to a monkey's impulses.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby cmsellers » Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:02 pm

@Marc: I think there are at least three things to Cobra's point.

  1. If he did as accused, he never suffered any consequences, while his alleged victim did.
  2. The Supreme Court is one of the most powerful positions in the US; the standard is far higher than it should be for reintegrating criminals into society. I believe in rehabilitative justice, but wouldn't want a convicted child molester to be a teacher. Similarly, I don't want someone who has shown questionable judgment to be a judge on the highest court in the land.
  3. The Supreme Court is a lifetime position with only nine seats. So it doesn't seem unfair to me to expect a lifetime of good judgment from appointees.
Of course we don't know whether he did as accused: it is so far only one accusation. But the thing is, Trump deliberately picked the most controversial candidate from his shortlist, the one McConnell asked him not to pick, and there are plenty of other issues with Kavanaugh.

I think that it is unfortunate that as with Roy Moore in Alabama, what discredits Kavanaugh may not be the real issues with his judgment on the law, but rather the fact that he may be a creep. And yes, Moore was several orders of magnitude worse than Kavanaugh judicially and definitely a creep, but the stakes were also lower. I don't want another Clarence Thomas on the SCOTUS, more because of his judicial philosophy than because of his possibly sexually predatory behavior.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Crimson847 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:05 pm

Whether the "he was a kid" defense is valid here is an interesting question, but at this point Kavanaugh has foreclosed that defense by insisting that Ford's claims are false. He was a teenager then, but he is now an adult, applying for a position of extreme responsibility. If he did do this then it's his responsibility to own up to it and accept the consequences. If it's plausible that he did it and doesn't remember (for instance, if he had a habit of getting blackout drunk at parties at the time), it's his responsibility to own up to that as well. Instead, he's insisted that Ford's accusation is false and claimed he couldn't have done any such thing because he didn't go to "those kinds of parties" in high school. So if evidence comes out proving him wrong now, that would mean he lied to the public about something of immense public interest, which would itself be disqualifying.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Marcuse » Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:12 pm

Crimson wrote:So if evidence comes out proving him wrong now, that would mean he lied to the public about something of immense public interest, which would itself be disqualifying.


The thing is, I'm extremely doubtful that any evidence will come out either way proving or disproving the claims. This was supposed to have happened longer ago than I've been alive and while in some cases maybe there might be evidence, I feel like if either side had concrete evidence either proving or disproving the case they would have presented it by now. It's in neither side's interest to proceed with allegations which rely on one person's word against the other.

However, let's be realistic about the state of political discourse in the US. It's more or less a given that people inclined to believe Ford will then already jump to a similar conclusion about the state of Kavanaugh's veracity in his denial in sufficient numbers to galvanize opposition to his nomination. I'm sure people inclined to support him have dismissed Ford's allegations already too and nothing would convince them to give her a real fair hearing no matter what words they might say on the subject.

cmsellers wrote:1. If he did as accused, he never suffered any consequences, while his alleged victim did.


While I agree with the statement as formulated, I don't know what bearing that has on anything I was trying to say.

cmsellers wrote:The Supreme Court is one of the most powerful positions in the US; the standard is far higher than it should be for reintegrating criminals into society. I believe in rehabilitative justice, but wouldn't want a convicted child molester to be a teacher. Similarly, I don't want someone who has shown questionable judgment to be a judge on the highest court in the land.


Of course, but what you just said is a hell of a lot more reasonable than "he's an ape man and can't be saved". My issue isn't with the concept of disbarring people from positions of trust when they have proven they do not act in a manner which befits such trust. My issue is with the idea that anyone who ever is accused of a sexual offense is an irredeemable villain who should be sent to the hall of destruction for summary combustion.

As I said previously in this kind of offense, uniquely among crimes it seems, edge cases and debatable situations are rife and it's not enough to just say anyone who committed something that we regard today as a sexual offense forty years ago is unsuitable on the basis of an unproven accusation.

cmsellers wrote:The Supreme Court is a lifetime position with only nine seats. So it doesn't seem unfair to me to expect a lifetime of good judgment from appointees.


Absolutely, though it would be nice if there was some proof of this lack of good judgement. Or politicians and the media could just use his jurisprudence as evidence of that, but that sounds too much like work I guess.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby AboveGL » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:58 am

Crimson847 wrote:Whether the "he was a kid" defense is valid here is an interesting question, but at this point Kavanaugh has foreclosed that defense by insisting that Ford's claims are false. He was a teenager then, but he is now an adult, applying for a position of extreme responsibility. If he did do this then it's his responsibility to own up to it and accept the consequences. If it's plausible that he did it and doesn't remember (for instance, if he had a habit of getting blackout drunk at parties at the time), it's his responsibility to own up to that as well. Instead, he's insisted that Ford's accusation is false and claimed he couldn't have done any such thing because he didn't go to "those kinds of parties" in high school. So if evidence comes out proving him wrong now, that would mean he lied to the public about something of immense public interest, which would itself be disqualifying.


I agree with this.

If I found out someone who put me through immeasurable trauma 10+ years ago was suddenly running for one of the most powerful positions, I absolutely would fucking speak up about it. And if Ford's claims can be confirmed to be true, Kavanaugh should face the consequences. It doesn't matter how long ago the incident happened.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Aquila89 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:51 pm

AboveGL wrote:If I found out someone who put me through immeasurable trauma 10+ years ago was suddenly running for one of the most powerful positions, I absolutely would fucking speak up about it.


I don't think I would. I don't think I could take the torrents of abuse, online and in the real world, threats, fake stories defaming me, everything that inevitably comes with making an accusation in such a highly charged situation. And if a lot of people started calling me a liar, I would probably start to doubt myself - I have little self-confidence and human memory is fallible after all.

And I would tell myself: it probably all for naught. Clarence Thomas was still confirmed. Trump was still elected.

Speaking of Trump, he came up with this argument on Twitter:

I have no doubt that, if the attack on Dr. Ford was as bad as she says, charges would have been immediately filed with local Law Enforcement Authorities by either her or her loving parents. I ask that she bring those filings forward so that we can learn date, time, and place!


Yeah, victims of sexual assault always immediately report what happened, this is a well-known fact.

He added this: "The radical left lawyers want the FBI to get involved NOW. Why didn’t someone call the FBI 36 years ago?"

The FBI has no jurisdiction in a simple sexual assault case. Does Trump think it really stands for "Female Body Inspectors"?
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby cmsellers » Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:50 am

So Ronan Farrow, son of Woody Allen and Mia Farrow and person instrumental in publicizing the Weinstein allegations, has a second accuser. The circumstances are such that the second accuser was drunk and is not certain about Kavanaugh's role, but is pretty sure he shoved his penis in her face.

When it comes to saying, "yeah, this guy is definitely a creep," my rule of thumb has been three or four independent accusations. Given the nature of the second accusation, I think I will wait for two more before I say "Kavanaugh is a disgusting sexual predator who has no business in any court except as a defendant." I was already of the opinion that Kavanaugh should not be confirmed anyways, so this changes nothing there.

What this revelation does do is make me say that, if Trump does not withdraw the nomination and Kavanaugh does not withdraw himself, then confirmation should be put on hold until after the election. Which is what Democrats are calling for, and Senate Republicans are so far resisting.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby JamishT » Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:23 am

Lawyer and presidential hopeful(?) Michael Avenatti has forcefully inserted himself jumped into the fray:


He later tweeted that his client isn't the one that Ronan Farrow has found.


And then there's reportedly a personal calendar that's gonna be produced by Kavanaugh that doesn't have an entry for the party where Dr. Ford's alleged assault happened.

(bonus Anthony Jeselnik joke!)

It's strange to see how many people are seeing his keeping these personal calendars as even more evidence of his guilt. It's as if any evidence in his defense isn't going to be believed...
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Marcuse » Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:29 pm

I'll be completely honest, this new allegation doesn't change my opinion of Kavanaugh one bit. I'm extremely wary of condemning someone over the impression that he might have done something a bit untoward a long time ago. I noted that in the New Yorker's report it stated that the accuser was reluctant to even state definitively that it was Kavanaugh that did it. Reports I've seen on the BBC seem to conflate the presence of a plastic penis there with a real one, which confuses the matter.

In any case, there doesn't appear to be any realistic evidence base for this allegation as it stands. We've seen plenty of cases where people interested in hearing a certain story can produce memories in people for whom the situation was a long time ago and was muddled to start with. I don't think necessarily that the accuser is lying, more than the media appears determined to spin out a muddled recollection into an Allegation Of Sexual Abuse By Judge.

It's sad that it seems like the go to now when you disagree with someone politically isn't to oppose them in the official manner you're supposed to, but to smear their character by searching out and accusing them of crimes that can't be proven or disproven in order to poison the well for enough people to oppose him just in case. It's a very negative way to do politics.

ETA: I also dislike the concept that if enough people make accusations there must be something in it.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Absentia » Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:31 pm

Marcuse wrote:In any case, there doesn't appear to be any realistic evidence base for this allegation as it stands. We've seen plenty of cases where people interested in hearing a certain story can produce memories in people for whom the situation was a long time ago and was muddled to start with. I don't think necessarily that the accuser is lying, more than the media appears determined to spin out a muddled recollection into an Allegation Of Sexual Abuse By Judge.


Apparently a number of media outlets (including the New York Times) investigated the story and declined to report it because they couldn't corroborate it. The New Yorker's corroboration is "A classmate of Ramirez’s, who declined to be identified because of the partisan battle over Kavanaugh’s nomination, said that another student told him about the incident either on the night of the party or in the next day or two." Meh.

Personally I'd be a lot happier if Kavanaugh was getting crucified for his regressive legal opinions, for which the evidence is abundant and indisputable, and which reflect a lot more on the question of his fitness for the Supreme Court than the fact that he was a drunk shitheel in 1983.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Aquila89 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:33 pm

Absentia wrote:
Personally I'd be a lot happier if Kavanaugh was getting crucified for his regressive legal opinions, for which the evidence is abundant and indisputable, and which reflect a lot more on the question of his fitness for the Supreme Court than the fact that he was a drunk shitheel in 1983.


But the Republicans consider those to be his main selling points. And they have the majority.
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Re: Professor says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her 35 years

Postby Crimson847 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:56 pm

I can respect being unconvinced that this necessarily happened as described, but I'm not on board with calling sexual assault "a little untoward", or even referring to it as just being "a drunk shitheel". I'm still irked about that focus group of Republican women on Fox saying "what boy doesn't do this?" in response to Ford's allegations, and more implications that this sort of thing is normal or just common "boorishness" don't help.
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