Another day, another school shooting

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Re: Another day, another school shooting

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Mon May 21, 2018 8:33 am

Crimson847 wrote:
Deathclaw_Puncher wrote:Judging by the responses to the actions of Nikolas Cruz, Alek Minassian, and now Dimitrios Pagourtzis, there's some part of the media that seems out to retroactively cater to the demands of spree killers. Cruz shoots up the Parkland Kids? Clearly we should encourage people to get close to and personally reform them like some sort of sociopathic school project! Minassian hits ten people with a van in the name of inceldom? Maybe they have a point. Could be.Let's grant them access to prostitutes (which they hate)! And now, this sort of thing.


People really, badly want some kind of solution to this...preferably a simple one. The gun control angle hasn't gained any traction despite all the hullabaloo; if anything it's lost some. The mental illness angle on the other hand is quite popular, but provides little in the way of easy or cheap solutions. Not coincidentally, people have started racking their brains for different angles on the problem, which is why we're seeing a resurgence of old ideas like the violent media explanation or the bullied outsider explanation that were previously shelved.

The thing is, their solution? It's almost consent.
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Re: Another day, another school shooting

Postby Crimson847 » Mon May 21, 2018 8:51 am

Aquila89 wrote:One of your graphs goes until 2105. which I believe is supposed to be 2015, the other until 2007. Both are outdated, they can't disprove that support for gun control hasn't gained traction after Parkland.


I didn't intend for them to do so; I thought demonstrating that there was no significant and durable increase in support after Heath, Columbine, Virginia Tech, Sandy Hook, Aurora etc. was sufficient to demonstrate the point. But if you insist, here's Quinnipiac's most recent polling on gun control, which indicates that the post-Parkland bump has subsided:

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/u ... gnt28.pdf/

TREND: Do you support or oppose stricter gun laws in the United States?

Sup Opp DK/NA
Apr 11, 2018 56 39 4
Mar 06, 2018 63 32 5
Feb 20, 2018 66 31 4 High Sup
Dec 20, 2017 59 36 5
Nov 15, 2017 60 36 3
Oct 12, 2017 60 36 3
Jun 28, 2017 54 42 4
Jun 30, 2016 54 42 4
Dec 23, 2015 47 50 3 Low Sup
Nov 05, 2015 52 45 3




Gallup polls show that support for stricter gun laws has increased since 2015.


The most recent poll (the big outlier) was taken right after Parkland, and the others only show support rising back to the level it was at in 2012 or 2004. Neither was exactly a banner year for gun control. We're still well below the levels of support seen in the early 1990s, the last time significant federal gun legislation was passed, which doesn't indicate that progress has been made since then at persuading the public on the issue.
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Re: Another day, another school shooting

Postby Aquila89 » Mon May 21, 2018 10:46 am

Crimson847 wrote:I thought demonstrating that there was no significant and durable increase in support after Heath, Columbine, Virginia Tech, Sandy Hook, Aurora etc. was sufficient to demonstrate the point.


I thought that by "despite all the hullabaloo" you meant Parkland and the following protests.

So the trend is that support for gun control increases somewhat after a particularly infamous mass shooting, then nothing is done, the it falls back to pre-shooting levels?
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Re: Another day, another school shooting

Postby Crimson847 » Mon May 21, 2018 12:05 pm

Aquila89 wrote:
Crimson847 wrote:I thought demonstrating that there was no significant and durable increase in support after Heath, Columbine, Virginia Tech, Sandy Hook, Aurora etc. was sufficient to demonstrate the point.


I thought that by "despite all the hullabaloo" you meant Parkland and the following protests.


The hullabaloo over gun control and mass shootings didn't start with Parkland. By now this is a well-worn routine over here: a shooting happens, gun control activists say "never again", and we have a "national discussion" about guns consisting of everyone saying the same things they said last time but with the goal of getting different results. Occasionally, after a really high-profile shooting like Sandy Hook there's "real movement" toward new gun laws, bills get proposed in Congress or passed in a few states, gun control gets a bump in polls, and there's talk that this time will be different. But when the dust has settled, you look up to find that public opinion is still roughly where it was 20 years ago and gun laws have generally become more permissive rather than less.

Why would we expect Parkland to change this dynamic? Because some of the survivors were then paraded around on TV to repeatedly claim that Republican politicians (and by implication, people who agree with them) are secretly cool with child murder? I really don't see why anyone thought the post-Parkland circus was going to accomplish anything other than make both sides feel more vindicated in their contempt for the other.

Aquila89 wrote:So the trend is that support for gun control increases somewhat after a particularly infamous mass shooting, then nothing is done, the it falls back to pre-shooting levels?


More or less. Looking at the Gallup data, there are four points where support abruptly spikes, and three of them occur immediately after the three most infamous school shootings of the past 20 years: the Columbine shooting in April 1999, the Sandy Hook shooting in December 2012, and the Parkland shooting in February. The Quinnipiac data bolsters the case that a post-Parkland bump occurred, and indicates that it was temporary just like the previous bumps Gallup recorded after Columbine and Sandy Hook. So it does seem like long term saturation-level media coverage generates significant movement toward gun control in polls, but it's weak, unsustainable, and snaps back as soon as people find a new shiny thing to focus on.
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Re: Another day, another school shooting

Postby SandTea » Thu May 24, 2018 7:04 am

Crimson847 wrote:that stuff above


I am so glad that someone reminded me that I shouldn't worry about some other kid shooting my kid.

Public opinion is in favor of stricter laws for controlling guns.

If someone supports (and continues to try to keep in place) the republican politicians (and by implication, those who agree with them); they are "being cool with child murder". We can do things to lower the amount of children murdering children that those republicans don't want to be done... That is a pretty clear line.
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Re: Another day, another school shooting

Postby Crimson847 » Thu May 24, 2018 9:24 am

SandTea wrote:
Crimson847 wrote:that stuff above


I am so glad that someone reminded me that I shouldn't worry about some other kid shooting my kid.


That depends. Is the other kid black or Muslim? Did their parents violate immigration law at some point? These are vital questions, apparently.

Public opinion is in favor of stricter laws for controlling guns.


Not enough of it to force Republicans and red-state Democrats to move on the issue. Support for gun control is very disproportionately concentrated in urban and suburban areas, so its political influence is strongly impacted by our political system giving disproportionate power to rural voters and less to city folks. Moreover, a lot of demographic groups that are fond of gun control (like racial minorities) also vote at substantially lower rates than the NRA's coalition of old white gun owners.

If someone supports (and continues to try to keep in place) the republican politicians (and by implication, those who agree with them); they are "being cool with child murder". We can do things to lower the amount of children murdering children that those republicans don't want to be done... That is a pretty clear line.


Okay. So, nearly half the country have become monstrous psychopaths who feel no significant grief at the thought of a child being murdered--at least, no grief strong enough that they can't tamp it down with a new accessory for their Chris Kyle AR-15 Play Set. Even the ones who've been victims of mass shootings themselves or have lost their own children to school shooters are largely unmoved--not because they think gun control would be ineffective or even increase fatalities, but because they don't much care about their own lives or those of their children. Is that what you mean to suggest?
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Re: Another day, another school shooting

Postby aviel » Thu May 24, 2018 5:32 pm

Crimson847 wrote:Why would we expect Parkland to change this dynamic?

It actually did a tiny bit. I'd agree that there hasn't been a "significant, durable" movement towards gun control; but it's also oversimplifying it to say that the gun control angle hasn't gained any traction.
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Re: Another day, another school shooting

Postby cmsellers » Thu May 24, 2018 8:15 pm

SandTea wrote:If someone supports (and continues to try to keep in place) the republican politicians (and by implication, those who agree with them); they are "being cool with child murder".

Replace "Republican" with "Democrat" and you have exactly the justification that many reluctant Republicans gave for holding their noses and voting for Trump.
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Re: Another day, another school shooting

Postby SandTea » Fri May 25, 2018 4:46 am

Crimson847 wrote:Is that what you mean to suggest?


Pretty much. Counter intuitive motivations are quite prevalent among every demographic. If someone genuinely cared they would try to change something, anything, shit; everything.

cmsellers wrote:Replace "Republican" with "Democrat" and you have exactly the justification that many reluctant Republicans gave for holding their noses and voting for Trump.


A "justification" that is not justified.

I often forget about where I am posting and the people I am trying to converse with. Oops, go ahead and ignore this. I can sometimes be "that guy". Ya know, the one who.... oh, I'm doing it again.

I do not think I will explain any further why shitty things are shitty.
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Re: Another day, another school shooting

Postby cmsellers » Fri May 25, 2018 5:13 am

SandTea wrote:A "justification" that is not justified.

And neither is your suggestion that anyone who votes Republican is OK with school shootings.

SandTea wrote:I often forget about where I am posting and the people I am trying to converse with.

You mean that we're not a left-wing echo chamber despite being about 75% liberals?
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Re: Another day, another school shooting

Postby Crimson847 » Fri May 25, 2018 6:39 am

SandTea wrote:
Crimson847 wrote:Is that what you mean to suggest?


Pretty much. Counter intuitive motivations are quite prevalent among every demographic. If someone genuinely cared they would try to change something, anything, shit; everything.


Would they?

You haven't tried restricting violent media, allowing teachers to go armed, posting more armed guards in schools, or tightening access control, to name a few responses proposed by folks on the right. I'm guessing there are solutions proposed by people to your left that you reject as well, like banning all firearms for everyone except police and military. According to this theory, if you really cared about mass shootings you'd be fighting for all of these changes as well, in the interest of trying anything to solve the problem. But you're not fighting for them. Why not?

Presumably, because you don't agree that these are good ideas. Rather, you'd probably argue that at least some of these proposals are pointless wastes of time at best or destructive mistakes at worst. And that's an entirely valid reason to not support something: a proposal that's merely ineffective would waste time that could be better directed elsewhere, and a proposal that causes more problems than it solves would make things worse and represent a problem in its own right.

Are other people with different beliefs about the gun issue not allowed to reject gun control efforts for the same reasons?

I often forget about where I am posting and the people I am trying to converse with. Oops, go ahead and ignore this. I can sometimes be "that guy". Ya know, the one who.... oh, I'm doing it again.

I do not think I will explain any further why shitty things are shitty.


The NRA does lots of shitty things, mate. Republicans too. They're presently led by Oliver North and Donald Trump, for crying out loud; both organizations have spent the last 2 years shitting a hole straight through the bed. I just want some explanation as to why disagreeing that the gun control measures on the table will reduce mass shootings makes someone not just shitty, but cartoon-villain gather-your-torches-and-pitchforks shitty. I mean, some of the people I know fall into this category, so if you're right about this I need to rescue their children from those inhuman monsters who think child murder is no big deal. But this time I want to be dead sure before I go kidnapping other people's children for their own good.
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