US/North Korea Talks Proposed

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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Absentia » Thu May 03, 2018 5:09 pm

Because they have a shiny gold medal to give away. And a bunch of Swedish Monopoly money.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Sun May 06, 2018 8:59 pm

Well, Kim has begun blaming us for spoiling the mood ahead of the summit, and SK has been silent, which worries me. One of the possibilities I outlined about this meeting was the possibility that Kim and China might try to leverage SK away from us, with or without doing anything on their end. That would very much change the balance of power in the region, especially with China getting aggressive in the South China Sea.

Not sure if it's happening, granted, but Kim's recent comments have me worried.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Crimson847 » Wed May 16, 2018 4:45 am

After the joint US-SK military exercises this week, North Korea just abruptly canceled the upcoming talks with South Korea, and issued a warning to the US:

"The United States will also have to undertake careful deliberations about the fate of the planned North Korea-US summit in light of this provocative military ruckus jointly conducted with the South Korean authorities," the KCNA report said.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-4413 ... ws_central

Given that the exercises in question were planned well in advance, and IIRC NK never demanded that we stop said exercises until the summit happens, this seems like posturing. Whether the goal is to try to improve their bargaining position by indicating a willingness to walk away, to provoke a careless outburst from Trump and thereby deepen the divide between us and the South Koreans, or something else, I have no idea.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby IamNotCreepy » Thu May 24, 2018 3:10 pm

Welp, looks like the summit is off.

After all that bragging about getting them to agree to meet? Say it isn't so...
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Aquila89 » Thu May 24, 2018 4:36 pm

Some background from the New York Times:

In an interview on Monday with Fox News, Mr. Pence said relations with North Korea “will only end like the Libyan model ended if Kim Jong-un doesn’t make a deal.”

He was referring to the fate of the government of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, the former Libyan dictator. Colonel Qaddafi gave up his nuclear program in 2003 in the hope of negotiating with the West, but was killed by rebels in a 2011 uprising after his government was weakened during military action from the United States and its European allies.

When it was noted that the comparison could be interpreted as a threat, Mr. Pence replied, “Well, I think it’s more of a fact.”

On Thursday, in a statement carried by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency, Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui of North Korea cited “unlawful and outrageous acts” by top American officials.

Ms. Choe said that Mr. Pence had made “unbridled and impudent remarks that North Korea might end like Libya.” And she added that she would recommend to Mr. Kim that he should reconsider what would have been a historic summit.


Trump cancelled the summit after this, citing the "tremendous anger and open hostility" in the North Korean statement.

I really have no idea what the North Koreans wanted with all this.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby blehblah » Thu May 24, 2018 6:51 pm

It wasn't just Pence.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... ff0930f1f8

If you’re serious about peace and denuclearization, maybe don’t mention Libya. That appeared to be the message North Korea had for the United States once again on Thursday when Pyongyang lashed out at Vice President Pence, calling him a “political dummy” and threatening a “nuclear-to-nuclear showdown,” hours before Trump canceled an upcoming denuclearization summit in Singapore scheduled for June 12, citing “open hostility” by North Korea.

“As a person involved in the U.S. affairs, I cannot suppress my surprise at such ignorant and stupid remarks gushing out from the mouth of the U.S. vice president,” Choe Son Hui, a North Korean vice foreign minister, had said hours earlier.


Erm... viewtopic.php?f=39&t=8964. Oh, vice president... yeah... the point stands.

The article points-out that Gaddafi didn't have many options; there was no China for him. The US had a strong, post-Iraq invasion presence, and Gaddafi's old pals weren't interested in helping. So, he made nice on several fronts - the Lockerbie bombing, and of course, giving-up his nuclear program.

The article ends with,

“If we don’t welcome countries that are starting to take the path of respectability, what can we say to those that leave that path?” said France’s then-president, Nicolas Sarkozy, defending the visit against critics.

When the Arab Spring began in 2011, however, Sarkozy was among the leaders behind a military intervention in Libya that helped topple Gaddafi — a scenario that would have been hard to imagine had Libya been in control of nuclear weapons at the time.


The first quote is from 2007, when Gaddafi visited France.

It is difficult for me to find the message here. Give-up your nukes and be less of a jerk, internationally, and we'll eventually bomb the shit out of any forces loyal to you and watch as you are summarily executed. Or, don't, and we won't, because you have nukes. Or let's work-out an agreement with plenty of mutual responsibilities, and pray we don't change the agreement further while simultaneously abandoning it... there really isn't a productive message in there, so far as I can see.

To Aquila's question, North Korea wants sanctions lifted while maintaining the security of the current regime, and keeping China happy. The US went down the path of talking about complete denuclearization. While Kim is a terrible human being, he isn't stupid. I figure he's fine with shutting-down the more visible parts of the nuclear testing part of his program, but he's not likely to give-up the capabilities he has.

Enrichment of fissile material, non-critical testing (testing everything other than setting-off a bomb - the US and Russia haven't set-off a bomb in a long, long time, because they know what they need to know about the practical application of physics), and other things are chips which Kim will want to see cashed, in one way or another. Starting with "you give-up everything, and we maybe kinda something-something, regime change, all subject to change" isn't going to work for Kim.

Not to mention, strictly non-nuclear stuff, like Ballistic missile development, just as it is with Iran. Unlike Iran, North Korea isn't pugnacious in their local geography, because China. Aside from the occasional brazen half-brother assassination, that is.

Kim needs to be able to export things like coal, and import things like fuel. He needs access to international financial systems to facilitate money laundering trade, and above all, he needs cash. Kim needs to maintain control domestically, and North Korea is one bad harvest away from a domestic meltdown.

The story continues to unfold.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Marcuse » Thu May 24, 2018 7:38 pm

I do have to laugh at the simple minded guile of waiting until fifteen seconds after NK blast their own nuclear testing facility (as useless as it reportedly is) to cancel the meeting which is supposed to be the reason why they're doing it. The letter to Pyongang even had a little backhanded "thanks for releasing those three guys dude, that was champion" kind of thing. I don't know whether this is masterful manipulation or just Trump being a dick. I'm inclined to think it's both.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby JamishT » Fri May 25, 2018 6:10 am

The letter the President...posted? I don't think he actually mailed it to NK, but here it is in all it's cringy glory:

Image

And if you're thinking that wording was weird, there's this:

(the second tweet is just to fix a typo in the first)

ARE YOU TIRED OF WINNING YET?
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby blehblah » Fri May 25, 2018 12:50 pm

JamishT wrote:And if you're thinking that wording was weird, there's this:

(the second tweet is just to fix a typo in the first)



That explains why it reads like one of Trump's health reports.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Aquila89 » Sun May 27, 2018 11:27 am

Looks like the meeting is back on... this is starting to get ridiculous. Why did the North Koreans used all that hostile rhetoric if they still wanted to meet?
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Windy » Sun May 27, 2018 3:27 pm

Why did the North Koreans used all that hostile rhetoric if they still wanted to meet?


How do you not know this I thought you could read the minds of korean leaders???
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Aquila89 » Sun May 27, 2018 4:05 pm

Kivutar wrote:
Spoiler: show
Image
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Absentia » Sun May 27, 2018 4:20 pm

Aquila89 wrote:Looks like the meeting is back on... this is starting to get ridiculous. Why did the North Koreans used all that hostile rhetoric if they still wanted to meet?


They've been running the same playbook for decades. Empty threats are how they try to pretend to other countries and their own people that they aren't a destitute, incompetent government that only exists because it's convenient for China.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Marcuse » Sun May 27, 2018 11:25 pm

It's gotten results. This seems to be a game of cat and mouse conducted on the public stage. NK started ramping up the aggressive rhetoric, and Trump responded by a sucker punch of cancelling the meeting right as the North Korean nuclear facility was neutralised. I don't think Trump ever really intended to properly cancel the meeting, but being the one to do so puts him in a position of seeming like he's in the driving seat, and made NK come back to the table with SK after having cancelled things like SK journalistic access to the nuclear facility following the joint US/SK military exercises. Now NK are promising to talk whenever and however and Kim Jong Un has recommitted himself to the rather nebulous "denuclearisation" of the Korean peninsula.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Crimson847 » Mon May 28, 2018 12:23 am

Reportedly, Trump announced the cancellation of the summit in large part because he was worried Kim would do so first, in the aftermath of the Libya kerfuffle. Aka "you can't dump me, I'm dumping you". That seems to be the dynamic here: each side is playing for leverage by trying to make it look like the other wants a deal more than they do.

Also, a lot of liberal and anti-Trump conservative commentators have a bit of egg on their faces over this, having run articles crowing about the summit cancellation and how inevitable it was and so on right before Trump started signaling that the meeting was back on. I suspect this was intentional on Trump's part, and I've got to say it's a cruel irony seeing people who have loudly announced that Trump is completely untrustworthy then proceed to keep trusting him.
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