US/North Korea Talks Proposed

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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Windy » Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:18 pm

Aquila89 wrote:
Windy wrote:Politicians and authority can't be trusted
Also we should let them police our speech


And yet again something I've never said.


Yeah and Trump never said "I hate black people, people from the land of taco bell, and muslims" either.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Kate » Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:20 pm

Locked for a cool-down and review.

ETA: Okay, unlocked. Please try and keep things respectful!
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby JamishT » Sun Apr 29, 2018 3:00 am

Crimson847 wrote:A recent AP report says that North Korea's nuclear testing site has "likely" collapsed.


According to this guy who apparently teaches courses on arms control issues in Northeast Asia and Chinese nuclear policy at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, it's rather unlikely that the mountain actually collapsed. Here are select tweets from a thread he tweeted out a few days ago:





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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Crimson847 » Sun Apr 29, 2018 6:20 am

Aquila89 wrote:But I have to admit, painful as it is, that part of me wants this to fail. Rationally, I know that success would be great. But the idea that Trump is responsible for this causes me intense cognitive dissonance. It's not just that I hate him. I don't want to believe that the way he behaves - acting like a deranged goon, making threats on Twitter, giving Kim a schoolyard nickname - is a successful approach to international diplomacy. I want to believe that maturity, self-restraint, expertise and careful language are necessary. On an emotional level, this is more important to me than peace in Korea. And it's just terrible that I feel like that. It's pathetic.


Being an aggressive jerkoff "works" quite often, even in more extreme forms. If you're engaged in a bitter argument (say, about money or religion or politics or remodeling the kitchen) and your opponent won't back down, threatening to beat them up is a pretty effective way to shut them up. If someone turns you down for sex when you believe they have no right to do so, violently raping them is a quite effective means of getting laid anyway while chastening the victim for denying you your "due". If you really want something that isn't well guarded, stealing it is usually a successful means of obtaining the desired item. If you can't stand dealing with someone, murdering them is a uniquely permanent method for getting them out of your hair. These are all criminal acts, but the same principle applies to merely antisocial ones as well: for instance, picking on the unpopular kids is a quick and effective way to gain status in many social environments, from primary and secondary schools to cubicle farms to Congress. Likewise, people have been cheating their way to success for a long time, from Major League Baseball players to college students to Olympians to our current president.

So why doesn't everyone act like this? There are various reasons, both internal and external, but one of the most important is that antisocial behavior succeeds in the short term only at the cost of long term social consequences. An employer can motivate their employees to be more productive by screaming at them, but the long term consequence of that is that the people with other options quit and you're stuck with the least productive workers--the ones who can't find employment anywhere else and so are stuck with you. A parent can motivate their kids to behave by angrily smacking them upside the head whenever they step out of line, but the long term consequence of that is typically kids with anger issues or severe depression (aka "misbehaving brats" and "lazy good-for-nothings", as the parents will likely see it). A poor kid with little hope for legitimate wealth can (potentially) make enough money from dealing crack or heroin or whatever to live rich, but if they get to that level then it probably won't be long before they end up murdered or in prison. There are exceptions of course, people who manage to duck the usual social consequences for such actions for a very long time or even for the rest of their lives, but as a rule people respond to antisocial behavior with roughly proportionate consequences, whether formal (like firing or imprisonment), informal (like nobody wanting to do business with you anymore), or both.

Such is the case here. The problem with Trump's unpredictable and belligerent behavior toward other nations isn't that it can't ever result in a short-term win. It isn't even primarily that we could lose credibility if foreign leaders start to view our president as a loudly barking dog with no actual bite. The big problem is the long term political and diplomatic consequences if Trump is successful at making other countries think the US really is the impulsive, violent, unpredictable power that he wants to convince the rest of the world we are.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Absentia » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:21 pm

Windy wrote:These people are wrong, it's clear that the president of South Korea and his foreign minister know nothing about foreign politics, he needs to get impeached like the last president, if only he listened to random people on the internet for their opinions on international diplomacy, I bet he's never even played Civilization VI before. *sips $2000 latte*


Oh, I'm sure they know a lot about foreign politics. For example, they know that Donald Trump is in a position to give them things that they want, and that the best way to get along with him is to stroke his ego.

"Yeah, it was all Trump. Give him the Nobel. Now about that Trans-Pacific Partnership..."
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Anglerphobe » Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:24 pm

Completely off topic but I had to google Kate's use of "ETA". For those who are as clueless as I was forty seconds ago, it apparently stands for "edited to add". To me it has always been nothing more than a Greek letter, a Basque separatist group, and the estimated time of arrival.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:08 pm

Somehow, giving the Nobel Peace Prize to a man who threatened to nuke North Korea off the face of the Earth seems backwards. Sure, Obama didn't really earn his, but if Trump gets one and is suddenly in the same category as Malala Yousafszai, we may as well retire the committee.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby blehblah » Tue May 01, 2018 8:12 pm

There are probably many reasons why North Korea is at the table, for now.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/north ... -1.4636292

Research by Chinese geologists suggests that the mountain above North Korea's main nuclear test site has likely collapsed, rendering it unsafe for further testing and requiring that it be monitored for any leaking radiation.


The North Koreans have indicated they will shut-down the test site in May, and invite confirmation.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/28/asia/nor ... index.html

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will shut down his nuclear test site in May and invite experts and journalists from South Korea and the United States into the country to ensure "transparency" around its closure, South Korea's presidential office said Sunday.


That is positive, even if the test site is no longer viable, and they have other sites which are/may soon be viable.

North Korea is even going to shift their time zone to match South Korea. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/29/north-k ... -move.html

The thing is, there has been some bustle with China lately.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/chinese-fo ... -1.3907824

The foreign minister of North Korea's chief ally China will visit Pyongyang this week following the historic summit between the leaders of the two Koreas.

The trip by Wang Yi comes as Beijing and Pyongyang continue an effort to repair ties that have suffered from tensions in recent years, and ahead of a planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and the North's leader Kim Jong Un.

[...]

Kim last month made his first visit to Beijing since taking power six years ago, kicking off a flurry of diplomacy highlighted by his meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in last week.


China had been putting quite a squeeze on North Korea.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1HV0KK

China kept fuel exports to North Korea to a trickle in March and exported no corn for a third straight month to its isolated neighbor, data showed on Tuesday, as sanctions over Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and missile program continued to bite.

Official data from the General Administration of Customs showed a sixth straight month of no shipments of diesel, gasoline and fuel oil. China has traditionally been the main source of North Korea’s fuel.

[...]

It was also the sixth month that China imported no iron ore, coal or lead from North Korea, in line with United Nations sanctions aimed at persuading Pyongyang to abandon its weapons program.


China was Kim's only lifeline. As Kim ramped-up missile and nuclear testing, China became increasingly aggravated. China was fine with the status-quo; they are not fine with a nuclear-armed North Korea.

On the other hand...

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/24/asia/chi ... index.html

While Pyongyang is dependent on Beijing for trade and diplomatic support, experts say the North Korean regime has always resented playing the little brother role to the much bigger China.

Now, as North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un establishes himself on the world stage and prepares for summits with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump, Beijing fears Pyongyang is moving out of its orbit and striking out on its own.


I find that hard to believe, but, who knows, because other than China, nobody knows what Kim is playing at.

Everyone does know that above all, Kim wants to stay in power. That means he needs to deal with domestic and foreign threats. Once China cut him off, it wasn't looking good on the domestic front. Even if you can find somewhere to export to, you need fuel to get it done. That means the money will dry-up, even if you're exporting meth and counterfeit money. You can repress a population with a bare-bones military, but eventually they will figure-out the tanks are out of gas.

Internationally, Kim has nukes. Maybe he can't deliver them, or deliver them far, but getting-off even one could make for a bad time. Reducing Seoul to rubble was never realistic, but conventional forces could still cause a lot of damage. Finally, China was not likely to allow anyone to actually invade North Korea, or even bomb it from afar. It ain't Iraq, and it ain't Syria.

Come to think of it, I don't think either China or South Korea want Kim yanked from power in a messy way. It would not go-down like East and West Germany reuniting.

Kim made his first visit to China, and things really got rolling (though, there was the whole Olympics thing a while before). Pompeo visited about a month after Kim went to China. As it has developed, Kim does appear to be open to... things.

So far, those things are symbolic; closing a maybe-operation test facility, stop expensive missile tests for which there may not be money, time-zone change, crossing the DMZ, officially ending the Korean war (because that'll fix everything, right?), smiles, not smoking at meetings (but drinking everything in sight)... so, yeah, all that.

In the end, I have no idea what Kim is up to, but he couldn't keep-up his programs after China put the squeeze on him. I'm sure China expressed some interesting thoughts to Kim, in-person.

Meanwhile... yeah... Trump.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pl ... 90932bef23

There, too, everyone is acting like Trump is a fool. South Korean President Moon Jae-in, when it was suggested that he be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to ease the conflict with North Korea, replied: “President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize.” He said this knowing full well that nobody’s getting any prizes before any true agreement is reached, especially given the many times the North and South have briefly opened up ties and promised newly warmed relations only to slip back to the status quo. But he also knows that Trump’s massive ego and rampaging insecurity mean that showering him with praise is the best way to get what you want from him.

[...]

On Monday, Trump was asked whether pulling out of the Iran deal sends the wrong message to North Korea as we’re trying to persuade them to give up their own weapons. “No, I think it sends the right message,” he replied. And what message is that? He didn’t say.


Sure.

Trump can't have a 30 minute conversation with Fox and Friends without fucking-up multiple times. I really, really don't think he understands what is going-on between all of the Middle East players, and China/North Korea.

I have no way of knowing, but I suspect China reminded Kim of what diplomacy is often about. "Kim, go say 'nice doggy' until we find a bigger rock."
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Delta Jim » Tue May 01, 2018 9:33 pm

Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:Somehow, giving the Nobel Peace Prize to a man who threatened to nuke North Korea off the face of the Earth seems backwards.


He was just quoting Gandhi.

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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Aquila89 » Tue May 01, 2018 10:33 pm

Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote: Sure, Obama didn't really earn his, but if Trump gets one and is suddenly in the same category as Malala Yousafszai, we may as well retire the committee.


There were many bad choices in history. Henry Kissinger and Yasser Arafat are just the most well-known ones. President Woodrow Wilson won in 1919 for the establishment of the League of Nations - even though under his presidency, the US invaded the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Nicaragua, and when it entered World War I, pacifists who supported draft resistance were sent to jail. And the League of Nations ended up being a total failure. (And for that matter, Kissinger got the prize for negotiating the Paris Peace Accords which did not end the Vietnam War and Arafat for signing the Oslo Accords which did not end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict).
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby gisambards » Tue May 01, 2018 11:22 pm

Aquila89 wrote:
Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote: Sure, Obama didn't really earn his, but if Trump gets one and is suddenly in the same category as Malala Yousafszai, we may as well retire the committee.


There were many bad choices in history. Henry Kissinger and Yasser Arafat are just the most well-known ones. President Woodrow Wilson won in 1919 for the establishment of the League of Nations - even though under his presidency, the US invaded the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Nicaragua, and when it entered World War I, pacifists who supported draft resistance were sent to jail. And the League of Nations ended up being a total failure. (And for that matter, Kissinger got the prize for negotiating the Paris Peace Accords which did not end the Vietnam War and Arafat for signing the Oslo Accords which did not end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict).


I feel like there should be a waiting period of a good few years after the event which has meant someone has been deemed worthy of a Nobel prize - as all these examples demonstrate, it seems silly to award someone a prize for negotiating a peace settlement that it's far too early to predict the longevity of.

With regards to Korea, I think Trump winning a prize is hardly the stupidest outcome: given how ridiculous some of the previous choices were when placed in a wider context, I don't think it's entirely out of the question that Kim Jong-un might get one.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Aquila89 » Wed May 02, 2018 7:25 am

Yeah. He's a dictator, but so was Anwar Sadat, and yet he got the prize for signing the Camp David Accords. Well, at least those lasted.

A good example of a premature prize was the 1929 one, awarded to Frank B. Kellogg, the US Secretary of State, for co-authoring the Kellogg-Briand Pact "whose signatories agreed to settle all conflicts by peaceful means and renounced war as an instrument of national policy". Among the signatories were Germany, Italy and Japan, and we all know how that worked out.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby blehblah » Wed May 02, 2018 1:03 pm

Aquila89 wrote:
A good example of a premature prize was the 1929 one, awarded to Frank B. Kellogg, the US Secretary of State, for co-authoring the Kellogg-Briand Pact "whose signatories agreed to settle all conflicts by peaceful means and renounced war as an instrument of national policy". Among the signatories were Germany, Italy and Japan, and we all know how that worked out.


I can't resist...

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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby iMURDAu » Wed May 02, 2018 11:12 pm

Wait, I'm supposed to take the Nobel Prize seriously? Aren't they the Kendrick Lamar fanboys no that's the Pulitzer. But the Nobel committee gave Obama the Peace Prize because he was the black guy who got elected President in America. Bob Dylan got a Nobel Prize for literature. Because he's a songwriter. Get it? So don't be shocked if one day Kendrick Lamar wins a Nobel Prize.
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Re: US/North Korea Talks Proposed

Postby Aquila89 » Thu May 03, 2018 4:14 pm

I'm not sure why the Nobel Peace Prize is so prestigious. It's given out by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, which is simply five Norwegians - politicians or university professors. Why does what they think about international politics matter so much?
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