There are probably many reasons why North Korea is at the table, for now.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/north ... -1.4636292Research by Chinese geologists suggests that the mountain above North Korea's main nuclear test site has likely collapsed, rendering it unsafe for further testing and requiring that it be monitored for any leaking radiation.
The North Koreans have indicated they will shut-down the test site in May, and invite confirmation.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/28/asia/nor ... index.htmlNorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un will shut down his nuclear test site in May and invite experts and journalists from South Korea and the United States into the country to ensure "transparency" around its closure, South Korea's presidential office said Sunday.
That is positive, even if the test site is no longer viable, and they have other sites which are/may soon be viable.
North Korea is even going to shift their time zone to match South Korea.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/29/north-k ... -move.htmlThe thing is, there has been some bustle with China lately.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/chinese-fo ... -1.3907824The foreign minister of North Korea's chief ally China will visit Pyongyang this week following the historic summit between the leaders of the two Koreas.
The trip by Wang Yi comes as Beijing and Pyongyang continue an effort to repair ties that have suffered from tensions in recent years, and ahead of a planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and the North's leader Kim Jong Un.
[...]
Kim last month made his first visit to Beijing since taking power six years ago, kicking off a flurry of diplomacy highlighted by his meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in last week.
China had been putting quite a squeeze on North Korea.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1HV0KKChina kept fuel exports to North Korea to a trickle in March and exported no corn for a third straight month to its isolated neighbor, data showed on Tuesday, as sanctions over Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and missile program continued to bite.
Official data from the General Administration of Customs showed a sixth straight month of no shipments of diesel, gasoline and fuel oil. China has traditionally been the main source of North Korea’s fuel.
[...]
It was also the sixth month that China imported no iron ore, coal or lead from North Korea, in line with United Nations sanctions aimed at persuading Pyongyang to abandon its weapons program.
China was Kim's only lifeline. As Kim ramped-up missile and nuclear testing, China became increasingly aggravated. China was fine with the status-quo; they are not fine with a nuclear-armed North Korea.
On the other hand...
https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/24/asia/chi ... index.htmlWhile Pyongyang is dependent on Beijing for trade and diplomatic support, experts say the North Korean regime has always resented playing the little brother role to the much bigger China.
Now, as North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un establishes himself on the world stage and prepares for summits with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump, Beijing fears Pyongyang is moving out of its orbit and striking out on its own.
I find that hard to believe, but, who knows, because other than China, nobody knows what Kim is playing at.
Everyone does know that above all, Kim wants to stay in power. That means he needs to deal with domestic and foreign threats. Once China cut him off, it wasn't looking good on the domestic front. Even if you can find somewhere to export to, you need fuel to get it done. That means the money will dry-up, even if you're exporting meth and counterfeit money. You can repress a population with a bare-bones military, but eventually they will figure-out the tanks are out of gas.
Internationally, Kim has nukes. Maybe he can't deliver them, or deliver them far, but getting-off even one could make for a bad time. Reducing Seoul to rubble was never realistic, but conventional forces could still cause a lot of damage. Finally, China was not likely to allow anyone to actually invade North Korea, or even bomb it from afar. It ain't Iraq, and it ain't Syria.
Come to think of it, I don't think either China or South Korea want Kim yanked from power in a messy way. It would not go-down like East and West Germany reuniting.
Kim made his first visit to China, and things really got rolling (though, there was the whole Olympics thing a while before). Pompeo visited about a month after Kim went to China. As it has developed, Kim does appear to be open to... things.
So far, those things are symbolic; closing a maybe-operation test facility, stop expensive missile tests for which there may not be money, time-zone change, crossing the DMZ, officially ending the Korean war (because that'll fix everything, right?), smiles, not smoking at meetings (but drinking everything in sight)... so, yeah, all that.
In the end, I have no idea what Kim is up to, but he couldn't keep-up his programs after China put the squeeze on him. I'm sure China expressed some interesting thoughts to Kim, in-person.
Meanwhile... yeah... Trump.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pl ... 90932bef23There, too, everyone is acting like Trump is a fool. South Korean President Moon Jae-in, when it was suggested that he be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to ease the conflict with North Korea, replied: “President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize.” He said this knowing full well that nobody’s getting any prizes before any true agreement is reached, especially given the many times the North and South have briefly opened up ties and promised newly warmed relations only to slip back to the status quo. But he also knows that Trump’s massive ego and rampaging insecurity mean that showering him with praise is the best way to get what you want from him.
[...]
On Monday, Trump was asked whether pulling out of the Iran deal sends the wrong message to North Korea as we’re trying to persuade them to give up their own weapons. “No, I think it sends the right message,” he replied. And what message is that? He didn’t say.
Sure.
Trump can't have a 30 minute conversation with Fox and Friends without fucking-up multiple times. I really, really don't think he understands what is going-on between all of the Middle East players, and China/North Korea.
I have no way of knowing, but I suspect China reminded Kim of what diplomacy is often about. "Kim, go say 'nice doggy' until we find a bigger rock."
A quantum state of signature may or may not be here... you just ruined it.