Erdogan attacks Syrian Kurds, arrests anyone who objects

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Erdogan attacks Syrian Kurds, arrests anyone who objects

Postby cmsellers » Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:55 am

This is something that's been going on for awhile, but I've been too furious to write about it coherently. In January, Turkish forces launched an invasion of SDF-held territory in Afrin.


Some background, for those of you who haven't been following the situation in Turkey and Syria
For those of you who don't know, the SDF started as the YPG: Kurdish and Assyrian militias created militias to protect their communities from the Syrian Civil War. Both sides of the conflict largely respected this, until ISIS came along, overran most of the other rebels, and them turned their sights on Kobane.

ISIS sieged Kobane, Erdogan (who had not-so-secretly supported ISIS earlier) suggested that Kobane not falling to ISIS would be a disaster, which led to the separatist Turkish Kurdish organization the PKK calling off their truce with the Turkish government and resuming a campaign of terrorism. Outrage over Kobane eventually leaded to the US, Iraqi Kurdistan, and several other actors (not Turkey, though they let us use the Incirlik airbase) supporting the Syrian Kurds.

The YPG then expanded to form the SDF, incorporating Arab militias into their ranks and taking over large swaths of northern Syria from ISIS. Erdogan invaded ISIS-held territory in northern Syria to create a buffer zone which would keep the Kurdish enclaves in Afrin and Kobane from touching. During this time, ISIS engaged in several terrorist attacks in Turkey, generally targeting Erdogan's political rivals.


Finally, in January Erdogan began a campaign against "terrorism" in Syria by attacking SDF-held territory in Afrin. This seems to be in response to the SDF not obeying his ultimatum to withdraw from Manjib. US special are embedded with the Kurds in Manjib so he hasn't been stupid enough to attack Manjib directly.

I think it's worth stressing that while the YPG is loosely affiliated with the PKK, the YPG has, unlike ISIS, never engaged in terrorist attacks against Turkey, or at all. This is unlike ISIS, which Erdogan supported and which repayed him by killing his political opponents.

Speaking of which, Erdogan has been rounding up his political opponents and arresting anyone who criticizes him, including members of the board of the Turkish Medical Association for basically saying "war is hell."

Additionally, there are reports that the Turkish army is making no effort to spare Kurdish civilians, and the Turkish border guards are indiscriminately shooting refugees who try to cross into Turkey.

Official US reaction has been muted, which maybe shouldn't be surprising. What's more upsetting to me is that NATO leadership has more-or-less supported the Turkish operation. And while one former US Ambassador to Turkey has said that we need to hold Erdogan to account, another former US Ambassador to Turkey has parroted the Turkish government's line that the SDP and the PKK are the same thing.

I'm still seeing red, but given how little attention this has gotten I feel the need to mention this, as calmly as I can.
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Re: Erdogan attacks Syrian Kurds, arrests anyone who objects

Postby cmsellers » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:24 pm

So Donald Trump has announced that the US will end all aid to Syrian rebels and pull US forces out of Syria soon. The SDF was the only force that was organized enough to take on Assad, but they cannot take on Turkey single-handedly. The Syrian Kurds have already established a de facto alliance with Assad against Turkey, and the SDF and Syrian government are fighting jointly against Turkey. So the end of US aid almost certainly means that the SDF will throw all-in with the Syrian regime.

At this point, my best bet for what happens is as follows:

  1. Erdogan establishes a permanent Turkish ocupation zone in Northwestern Syria, similar to the one Russia has established in eastern Ukraine, from which Kurds, Christians, and Alawites are ethnically cleansed.
  2. The opposition in the rest of Syria is defeated by Assad (as is already happening), possibly excepting the area near the Israeli and Jordanian borders (so far Assad has left that area largely alone so as not to antagonize Israel and Jordan).
  3. Assad reaches an agreement where the majority of SDF territory is returned to Syrian government control in exchange for limited Kurdish autonomy in the 2/3 of Kurdish territory east of the Euphrates.
I'd like this to be a Soviets-in-Afghanistan situation where both Erdogan and Assad are overthrown as a result of Erdogan's pig-headed adventure, but sadly I don't think that's actually likely to happen.
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Re: Erdogan attacks Syrian Kurds, arrests anyone who objects

Postby blehblah » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:40 pm

cmsellers wrote:So Donald Trump has announced that the US will end all aid to Syrian rebels and pull US forces out of Syria soon.


Here is an article which figures pulling out of Syria will be quite helpful to Iran:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/glo ... mic-state/
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Re: Erdogan attacks Syrian Kurds, arrests anyone who objects

Postby Crimson847 » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:32 am

Exiting the Iran deal in May should be good for Iran too.

Now that Trump has decided he knows what he's doing as President and doesn't have to listen to anybody anymore, I expect we'll find out who was sincerely concerned about promoting peace in the Middle East during Obama's term, and who was just using the chaos there as a handy political cudgel.
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- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
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Re: Erdogan attacks Syrian Kurds, arrests anyone who objects

Postby cmsellers » Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:56 am

The New York Review of Books has an interesting account of Reggie and friends' behavior based on an interview with an anti-PYD Kurdish civilian.
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