US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:44 pm

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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Windy » Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:14 pm

Sounds like the Russians infiltrated Florida to overthrow our democracy.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:02 am

Sinema now ahead by 22,000 votes!
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:48 am

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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Crimson847 » Sat Nov 10, 2018 4:43 am

cmsellers wrote:FiveThirtyEight has a good article on what's going on in Broward County. There's a good chance people 26k people never voted at all for Senate because of really shitty ballot design and that will be enough to give Rick Scott a Senate Seat. Fucking Florida, man.


Just finished reading that article. I don't know if I would have spotted the alleged problem with the ballot; IIRC Oregon's ballots are laid out in a similar way. You'd think people would see the bubbles and realize they're being asked to make a choice there...but this is Florida, so they were probably busy keeping an eye out for Florida Man.


Florida Man, Florida Man
Does whatever a methhead can
Can he eat someone's face?
Yes he can, he's depraved
Look out, he is the Florida Maaan
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:33 am

Sinema's lead increased to 28,000!
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby cmsellers » Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:15 am

What I want to know is why the Green Party doesn't nominate candidates named "Green" more often.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:21 am

The associated press just called the CA-48 race for Harley Rouda, bringing the Dems' net gain in the House to +32. Someone's getting novichoked.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:06 am

Arizona vote dump update:
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby cmsellers » Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:58 am

So now there are rumors that should McSally lose, as looks likely, Jon Kyl will resign in January and Gov. Ducey will appoint her fill McCain's seat. It will then have to be filled in a special election in 2020, and appointed incumbents have almost no incumbency advantage, so it's not as great a consolation prize as it looks.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Absentia » Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:54 am

I'd like to argue that it's a bad look to appoint somebody that voters just rejected for the same position, but we're long past the point where that counts as bad optics for the GOP.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby cmsellers » Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:06 am

Lawrence Lessig has an op-ed saying something somewhat similar to what I said about O'Rourke. Like me, he thinks that O'Rourke's uncompromisingly left-wing positions probably cost him the chance to unseat Cruz. For Lessig, the lesson is that Democrats should campaign on a centrist anti-corruption message, using Billie Sutton's South Dakota gubernatorial campaign.

On one hand, I think that there is something to this, given that Trump has run the most brazenly corrupt administration since at least Harding. But on the other hand, the Democratic Party is the party I think most Americans associate more with corruption (or is it just me, coming as I do from Massachusetts?) and the party which just re-elected Bob Menendez, which makes this a very hard sell. But on the third hand (everyone has three, right?) one-party rule always tends to lead to corruption to some extent. I know the Texas and West Virginia branches of the GOP are wicked corrupt, so it's definitely a good message on local issues in red states.

I'm also not sure that Democrats need to move to the center on all issues. It probably helps to have some issues to fire up the base, but I think that candidates should carefully consider which issues are so important to them that they are worth risking losing over. I think standing up for BLM was worthwhile, and a lot of Texas Democrats probably think pushing for single payer is. But when you advocate something which has no chance of passing, as is the case with banning AR-15s and impeaching Trump, you are riling up people who disagree with you for no reason. And saying you are open to abolishing ICE when you really mean you'd like to reorganize Homeland Security? That is terrible messaging.

It's also worth noting that while I think the article is interesting, South Dakota is a highly elastic state (moreso than Texas) and people are more prone to voting for opposite-party governors in deep red/blue states than they are for federal office or even state legislature, so Lessig's argument that "Sutton did better in South Dakota for governor than O'Rourke did for Senator in Texas" isn't really persuasive as a single data point.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Absentia » Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:35 am



My biggest disappointment from this election is how many "mainstream" Republicans are suggesting voter fraud in AZ and FL (not McSally, who conceded gracefully). At this point nobody can be surprised that Trump is beating that drum, but I had a higher opinion of Marco Rubio.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby gisambards » Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:07 pm

Just to clarify something - when do the people elected in this election take office? Is it not until next year, as with presidential elections, or sooner?
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:10 pm

gisambards wrote:Just to clarify something - when do the people elected in this election take office? Is it not until next year, as with presidential elections, or sooner?

January 3rd, on the congressional level anyway.
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