This article from Sabato's Crystal Ball made me think that it might be time for a thread on midterm Senate races (and House and state house races too, if you've got anything interesting to share on that front). It's clear that Roy Moore's charming peccadilloes (which are totally a smear campaign by the liberal media anyways) are working against him, to the point that Sabato's Crystal Ball marked the seat a slight favorite for Jones, but we have a thread on that already.
However if Jones wins the seat, the Democratic odds of retaking the Senate in 2018 increase dramatically. They're still underdogs but if if they hold all the seats they have (hard) and take Alabama, Arizona, and Nevada (easier) they'll get a Senate majority. They're defending seats in Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, and West Virginia, would will be tricky no matter what (if Hillary were president West Virginia's Joe Manchin would be the only one with a prayer of surviving), and Rick Scott could make Florida very competitive.
However the interesting thing is that they have a chance to pick up seats in Tennessee and Texas. In Tennessee Bob Corker is retiring, and Sabato's Crystal Ball just moved Tennessee to likely Republican (as opposed to Safe Republican), while in the Cook Political Report it was already there. I imagine that Tennnessee Republicans would have to nominate a truly awful candidate for the Dems to have a shot, but it's a possibility.
Personally, the race that really interests me is Texas, for obvious reasons. The Cook Political Report has it as safe Republican while Sabato's Crystal Ball has it as likely Republican, and I think they're both overstating Cruz's position. Now this may be wishful thinking, particularly because the Castro brother who some polls showed ahead of Cruz has declined to run, so the Democratic frontrunner is congressman from El Paso named Beto O'Rourke. However O'Rourke is an Anglo who managed to win against a conservative Hispanic incumbent (in the primary) in El Paso. This tells me he's a good campaigner. He also opposes the War on Drugs, which is something that will make him stand out against Cruz.
Ted Cruz has had consistently negative favorability and job approval ratings, to the point that the Republicans tried (and apparently failed) to find a more reasonable candidate to primary him. (I would have eagerly voted for George P. Bush over Cruz in the Republican primary, even knowing it made it more likely the GOP would hold the seat and perpetuated a political dynasty to boot. I really hate Cruz.) Some back-of-the-envelope estimates I did suggests that Texas gets about three points bluer every two-year election cycle, but with considerable noise. From Trump's margin of victory to a Cruz loss would require a nine-point swing in one election cycle, which would be improbable for sure. But it doesn't seem impossible to me, particularly given that Cruz is a weak candidate and O'Rourke seems to be a strong one.