US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby cmsellers » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:03 pm

I think DP is saying that most of the votes left to be counted in Florida are in heavily-Democratic Broward Count, which means that Nelson could still eke out a win.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:19 pm

23,000 votes, 15,000 behind. Will probably go down like Montana.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Crimson847 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:28 pm

Marcuse wrote:What does this even mean? I'm looking at lots of numbers and abbreviations and I can't figure it out.


VBM = vote by mail. Mailed ballots are usually the last ones to be fully counted since they take the longest, so if Nelson does manage to squeak out a win it'll be with the mailed votes.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby cmsellers » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:46 pm

OK, so I'm seeing discussion on Twitter of the fact that in every county except Broward, the Senate and governor's races were no more than 1% different, and in Palm Beach and Dade County, more people voted for Senator, but Broward undervoted by 3.7%. The undervotes exceed the current gap between Scott and Nelson and Broward is the most heavily Democratic county in the state, so assuming that a machine error misread those 3.7% of ballots (or likely more), we could be looking at a recount in Florida and a very narrow final margin.



And DP, any chance you now understand why dropping links and images is both rude and unhelpful?
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:53 pm

I guess it can render a post as having little to no reason to be there and also isn't part of a conversation, but at the same time, some things should ideally be easy to infer.
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Last edited by Deathclaw_Puncher on Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby cmsellers » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:58 pm

Deathclaw_Puncher wrote:Yeah, there's this little thing called reading.

Without context it was not remotely clear what your post was about. Reading it did not change that.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Crimson847 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:06 am

Remember Georgia 6th, the deep-red district that Jon Ossoff narrowly lost in the special election last year? Dems came back for it this year.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/georgia/house
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:21 am


So this just happened. There is a lot more to come, but it is in a county where Sinema has a lean in.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Cobra-D » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:45 am

I should be mentioned that the governor race in Georgia is still undecided between Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams even though the Secretary of State Brian Kemp declared Brian Kemp the winner....I’m sure there’s no relation.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:56 am

Update: Lead has expanded to 9,000 votes.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Crimson847 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:55 pm

Folks on the right evidently have some concerns about what's happening in Broward County.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/wom ... ious-race/

Brenda Snipes, the Broward County Board of Elections Supervisor previously convicted for illegally destroying ballots, is once again under scrutiny for her questionable handling of Tuesday’s elections.

Snipes has so far refused to disclose the number of Broward County ballots that have yet to be counted more than 40 hours after the polls closed, in possible violation of Florida law, which requires timely reporting of vote counts.




Not necessarily seeing a fire here, but I do see the smoke they're pointing out and I'd probably be suspicious too.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Absentia » Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:06 pm

Florida just can't figure out this whole "elections" thing, can they?
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:46 pm

The way things are going in Arizona and Florida, a part of me wonders whether Republicans will try and implement "first call" laws in some states to "win" elections.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby cmsellers » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:52 pm

FiveThirtyEight has a good article on what's going on in Broward County. There's a good chance people 26k people never voted at all for Senate because of really shitty ballot design and that will be enough to give Rick Scott a Senate Seat. Fucking Florida, man.
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Re: US Midterms 2018: Can Team Blue take the Senate?

Postby Crimson847 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:02 pm

Absentia wrote:Florida just can't figure out this whole "elections" thing, can they?


Seems likely. I can think of relatively innocent explanations for failing to report results in a timely fashion or being unable to provide even a rough estimate of the number of remaining ballots, but they all involve other kinds of failures of the election system like machine errors or gross understaffing.

Likewise, why is someone convicted of destroying ballots (recently, no less) working at the county Board of Elections in any capacity, let alone a supervisory role? This is Broward County, one of the most populous counties in the country, and they can't find anyone for the position of "henhouse guard" besides a fox?
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