Democratic Primary 2020

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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby cmsellers » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:40 am

Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:Anyways, I get that you're trying to do the bed of nails thing again, but you keep acting like Clinton had one problem and was otherwise a completely perfect candidate, and that one thing was why she lost.

Like Crimson said, I saw a lot of issues with Clinton in the election. I just think that the bed of nails thing is a big part of why she lost: aside from the emails and Clinton foundation she didn't have any actual scandals.

I'm going to share a chart from a terrible article which is why I'm rehosting it on Imgur and not linking the article. However while the article used awful reasoning, data is data and this data is interesting.
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Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:I'm not stumping for Warren here, your argument just makes zero sense. Trump's been like...fifteen points underwater since May, can you imagine what he's going to look like in four years (and more than likely, with the people of America having nothing to show for all the shit he collectively put us through)? Do you really believe the whole Pocahontas thing is going to drag her down so much compared to the pile of failure that is Trump? Do you really believe that anyone who (again) isn't Anthony Weiner will really look more ridiculous than Trump will in three years?

It's too early to say, but FiveThirtyEight has an interesting dissection of whether he can be called the presumptive favorite and basically say: he's probably a slight favorite if he makes it till November (of 2020). And as Crimson said, his approval ratings are above his favorable ratings before the election.

It would be unusual for a president to win re-election when his approval ratings are underwater (though they're a little less underwater with likely voters), but there's time for that to change and his candidacy was unusual in a lot of ways. For example it's not normal for the candidate with lower net approval ratings to win, but he pulled that off by outperforming in the Midwest while Clinton overperformed in blue states. And both Warren and Harris seem likely to hand him that advantage in the Electoral College all over again.

As I've said before: barring a major change on the level of 9-11 I simply don't think he'll win the popular vote, though I think if he gets us into a war with North Korea that would probably help him, just as Iraq helped W. And yes, I certainly think it's possible that Trump would end up looking less ridiculous than Warren or Harris to most of his base and a certain population of Rust Belt swing voters, and that's all he needs to win the Electoral College.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:36 am

Updated 2020 picks now that we're about to close out the year. Ranked in order of probability:

The Top Tier
1. Still Senator Kamala Harris. I still think she probably has the best chance. She's kinda toeing the line right now of gaining notoriety without becoming so noticeable as to get dragged into the ring with Trump--which does boost your profile but also ends up making you seem like less of a fresh candidate. Like I said before, she's a black woman--which are the engine of the party--she would be a good consensus candidate between liberals and progressives, and she's got a good donor base in California.
2. Former VP Joe Biden. Since this #metoo moment has drawn more attention to the Anita Hill hearings (to his detriment), I've kinda turned down the heat on this one. I think the Democratic base wants someone fresh and new, while Biden is the old guard. There are still a lot of ways I think he sees himself become the nominee (and he's almost certainly running), but I think there's still three years to go, and his age is going to be a problem, as is his...well-documented handsiness.
3. Senator Elizabeth Warren/Senator Bernie Sanders. Whichever of this one runs, I think the other one won't, and I can't actually tell which one is planning on it. The problem I have with Bernie is that he has an enthusiastic and big base in the Democratic Primary, but I think part of his popularity will be co-opted by his fellow candidates who will run to the left of Clinton. Plus, he's kinda old news, and that could tarnish him somewhat, and there are a lot of people in the party (including voters) who are still pretty pissed at him about 2016.
As for Elizabeth Warren, sure she has that one Native American thing, but I don't really think it will be a big deal. She was an OG progressive before it was cool (frankly, before anyone even knew who Bernie was), and she's a lot more...capable and persuasive than he is. That said, she's a better opposition than she is an inspiring speaker, and that can trip her up--though maybe that's a plus against Trump. She'll be a pugilist where Clinton wasn't.

The Possibles
4. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. Her stock's risen from where it was at "No fucking way" to "Still probably not" in my eyes. Let's be real, cutting ties with Clinton was such a bald political move that I don't think anyone's gonna be convinced by it. While there is this big #metoo moment, it may be old hat by 2020, and you're gonna need more of a message than anti-sexual assault, as our current president proves. My problem with her is that she's still too easily framed as a clone of Hillary Clinton (remembering that she still has Hillary's old Senate seat) and I think she's seen as being too plainly calculating and flip-flopping to really catch on with a Democratic base that's not particularly eager for another Machiavellian centrist white female Democrat from New York. Again, it's not fair, but it's there, so I think it'll be a problem.
Also, she's been generating too much notice too early, I think. In a hyper-aware political environment, I'm not certain that's a good thing. Better that you come out of psuedo-nowhere than give Trump and the RNC years to run against you a la Clinton.
5. Sen. Cory Booker. He faces the same exact problems as Gillibrand, I think. He's seen as being too centrist, too corporate-friendly, and simply too politically calculating. Again, the Democratic base is just as tired as the old political dynasty as the Republicans are, and Booker carries a lot of the problems of that, I think. If Harris runs, and I'm pretty sure she plans to, he's got no shot in my mind.

The Dark Horses
6. Sen. Mark Warner. He's a centrist Democrat who actually has a lot of new and different ideas on how to bring up wages in the current environment. He could have a solid economic message, has a good reputation on the hill, and has been 1/2 of the Senate investigation into Russian influence. He could have a lot of notoriety among Democrats, depending on how the investigation goes.
7. Sen. (Jesus Christ this is a lot of Senators) Sherrod Brown. While I continue to think he would be a great VP candidate, there will be too many progressives in the field for him to really have a shot at the presidential nomination.
8. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. She's very low profile now, but she did visit with Bashar-Al-Assad at the beginning of the term and looks like she might be mulling it over. She's apparently pretty competent, she's a veteran, and it helps that she's good-looking (don't look at me like that, we all know it helps).

The "No-Way Unless Everyone Else Has A Simultaneous Stroke on Stage"s
9. Sen. Tim Kaine. Everyone's favorite living dad joke. My same complaints with him as before.
10. Mayor Bill DeBlasio. I'm not sure why he has no chance, I just don't think he does. For some reason, everyone seems to think he's a giant showboat even though he's actually done a lot of good for NYC (from what I understand). So I'm gonna say no, even if he has a good case to make.

The "Would Win if They Were Running, but They're Not Running"s
323,000,000. Michelle Obama. She's not running.
323,000,001. The Rock. He's not running. This time.

The Absolutely No Way in a Million Years Will We Put Ourselves Through This Shit Again
323,100,001. Hillary Clinton.

BONUS ROUND: POTENTIAL VIP CANDIDATES
1. Sherrod Brown. Swing state Democrat, would be a good progressive candidate in case the schism in the Democratic party wounds a more centrist Presidential candidate.
2. Kamala Harris. I'm making this pick with Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden in mind. I think either of them will need someone younger, will need to appeal to black voters, and in Biden's case, pick up a little more progressive cred.
3. Doug Jones. Let's be honest: barring some kind of seismic shift in the electorate by 2020, Doug Jones is going to lose his seat, so the party could avoid losing face in Alabama. With North Carolina and Georgia slowly turning more blue (a trend accelerating in the Trump years), he won't pull in Alabama but could make a play at one of those slowly-going-blue southern states, more moderate Republicans, and perhaps even pick up some red-leaning votes in Northern Florida to give them the edge in the Sunshine State. It helps that he does have some moderately liberal cred; he's surprisingly liberal for a guy elected in Alabama.
4. Elizabeth Warren/Bernie Sanders. Same reasoning as Sherrod Brown, but in case he doesn't accept.

Keep in mind that the primary's gonna be crowded like the Republican one in 2016. Nobody's being crowned king/queen in this one, there's a very solid chance this looks like Trump's victory where there are a jillion candidates and the one with 30% of the vote outlasts everyone else.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby gisambards » Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:40 am

I agree with your list almost entirely, with the only minor change that, while I'd keep Warren in the top tier, I think Sanders is after Gillibrand but before Booker in the second tier. I think the problems you give for Gillibrand's candidacy are likely, but there is a possibility she could overcome them. If she manages to adequately prove she's not Hillary Clinton (and thus eschew the negative connotations), I think it's possible some of the similarities that are there might actually prove oddly reassuring - people will be looking for stability post-Trump, and without all the baggage Clinton brought, a Machiavellian centrist white female Democrat from New York might actually seem like quite a safe pair of hands. Irregardless, I definitely don't see her beating out Harris, Biden or Warren.

With Sanders, the main issue is just that he is now, as you put it, "old news", and I think that's actually pretty damaging. By 2020, with other, slightly younger and more eloquent and engaging potential candidates expressing broadly the same views, people will have realised it was the movement he represented that was exciting, not Sanders the individual. And within the progressive wing of the party, I don't think they'll want him to run: Warren would be absolutely insane to let Sanders represent their wing instead of her a second time, because if someone like Harris or Biden beats him (which is much more likely than it is with Warren) and then becomes president, I think that's going to make it a much longer wait (12 years minimum, I'd say) until another progressive stands a real chance.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:40 am

gisambards wrote:
With Sanders, the main issue is just that he is now, as you put it, "old news", and I think that's actually pretty damaging. By 2020, with other, slightly younger and more eloquent and engaging potential candidates expressing broadly the same views, people will have realised it was the movement he represented that was exciting, not Sanders the individual. And within the progressive wing of the party, I don't think they'll want him to run: Warren would be absolutely insane to let Sanders represent their wing instead of her a second time, because if someone like Harris or Biden beats him (which is much more likely than it is with Warren) and then becomes president, I think that's going to make it a much longer wait (12 years minimum, I'd say) until another progressive stands a real chance.


The thing with Sanders is, having a sister who's very pro-Sanders, I've seen that he's as much a cult of personality as Trump. Both of them get their appeal by raging at the system (a system I happen to hate as well, I was pretty open about how much I hated having to vote Clinton) and I'm not certain that anyone in the Democratic primary besides Warren will relish carrying particular brand as explicitly. Unlike Trump, Sanders will be carrying the exact same message and possibly with more credibility than he did before. So he will still be pretty formidable. But yeah, I can see him starting with...maybe twenty percent of the vote. It's hard to tell how many of his votes were anti-Clinton. Still, he'll likely be the runner up, making him pretty formidable for everyone else to beat.

I'm also not certain if Warren can talk him into not running. Those two are homies, don't get me wrong, but Bernie seems pretty hungry to become president and be a system changer, and she seems content to just do her job as a senator. Still, she may just be playing it cool right now, so who knows?

Also, I give Trump about a 50% chance of drawing a primary challenger. Corker, Flake, and (surprise!) Rubio would be my top bets.
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Last edited by Doodle Dee. Snickers on Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Cobra-D » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:47 am

I'm just putting it out there, if The Rock runs I'm gonna have to vote for him or forever be labeled a jabroni. Plus it would be the only chance we'll get to see a president give the rock bottom to a former president, and I know we all want that.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Cpt._Funkotron » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:53 am

We are just not suffering from an overabundance of good options are we?
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby JamishT » Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:34 am

I don't think it's a good idea to run Bernie or Biden, only because they are so old. They may be spry and sharp right now, but it doesn't take much for that to come crumbling down.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Windy » Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:18 am

I vote for whatever's the least likely outcome.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby mancityfooty » Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:32 am

can we focus on '18 first?
also, everyone who watched the DNC convention in '04 knew who Obama was.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:16 am

mancityfooty wrote:can we focus on '18 first?
also, everyone who watched the DNC convention in '04 knew who Obama was.


Which was like...ten people. People weren't hyper-aware back then like they are these days.

Also, as for 2018, I've already got the date in mind. When November 1st rolls around, I'm gonna be counting down the days.

Windy wrote:I vote for whatever's the least likely outcome.


I'll put you down for "It goes to a brokered convention and the DNC picks Hillary Clinton."
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby cmsellers » Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:44 am

I didn't watch the DNC convention, but did read a Bob Herbert column which said "remember the name 'Barack Obama'; this guy is going to be important," back before he was even a Senator.

With regards to ratings of probability, at this point I think that it probably goes Harris > Warren > Biden > Booker > Gillibrand > Sanders, with a one-in-three chance it's none of the above. All of the six obvious frontrunners have obvious vulnerabilities which if they run could either trip them up suddenly (Harris, Warren, Biden, Booker) or prevent them from getting traction in the first place (Warren, Booker, Gillibrand, Sanders). I'm factoring into this that I don't think Biden and Sanders are likely to run and I'm not sure Gillibrand will, but I'm almost certain Harris, Warren, and Booker will.

If all of six were to run I'd rate chances of their winning nomination as Biden > Sanders > Harris > Warren > Gillibrand > Booker. I rate Biden and Sanders' odds of winning so highly based on the assumption that nominating the previous vice president or runner-up in the primaries would be a return to normalcy, which I think Trump is driving more and more people to hope for. And in the increasingly unlikely event that Tammy Duckworth runs, I'd put her between Sanders and Harris in her likelihood of winning.

With regards to the dark horses Doods mentioned I'd rate their chances of winning as Gabbard > Warner > Brown, but I'm not sure they're the most likely dark horses to actually run, particularly Brown, whose election would almost certainly lose the Democrats a Senate seat. (I'm also biased against Brown, whose politics I abhor.)

If the Rock were to run I don't think he'd win and definitely don't think that running a celebrity against the celebrity-in-chief is a good idea. Not only does it normalize Trump, but while I'm sure he'd be a better president than Trump, I worry he'd be Jesse Ventura on a national scale.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:20 pm

cmsellers wrote:I didn't watch the DNC convention, but did read a Bob Herbert column which said "remember the name 'Barack Obama'; this guy is going to be important," back before he was even a Senator.

With regards to ratings of probability, at this point I think that it probably goes Harris > Warren > Biden > Booker > Gillibrand > Sanders, with a one-in-three chance it's none of the above. All of the six obvious frontrunners have obvious vulnerabilities which if they run could either trip them up suddenly (Harris, Warren, Biden, Booker) or prevent them from getting traction in the first place (Warren, Booker, Gillibrand, Sanders). I'm factoring into this that I don't think Biden and Sanders are likely to run and I'm not sure Gillibrand will, but I'm almost certain Harris, Warren, and Booker will.

If all of six were to run I'd rate chances of their winning nomination as Biden > Sanders > Harris > Warren > Gillibrand > Booker. I rate Biden and Sanders' odds of winning so highly based on the assumption that nominating the previous vice president or runner-up in the primaries would be a return to normalcy, which I think Trump is driving more and more people to hope for. And in the increasingly unlikely event that Tammy Duckworth runs, I'd put her between Sanders and Harris in her likelihood of winning.

With regards to the dark horses Doods mentioned I'd rate their chances of winning as Gabbard > Warner > Brown, but I'm not sure they're the most likely dark horses to actually run, particularly Brown, whose election would almost certainly lose the Democrats a Senate seat. (I'm also biased against Brown, whose politics I abhor.)

If the Rock were to run I don't think he'd win and definitely don't think that running a celebrity against the celebrity-in-chief is a good idea. Not only does it normalize Trump, but while I'm sure he'd be a better president than Trump, I worry he'd be Jesse Ventura on a national scale.


The reason I picked Harris as 1 is because--assuming all continues as it has--she's the one without a clear weakness short of being a black woman, which I don't think will be a problem in the primary. Maybe not even in the general, frankly. In the same way that I saw a strategy for Hillary to use Trump's latent sexism against him simply by being there, Harris could provide the same foil.

Warren and Biden have some weakness, but not much. For the general, I think Biden's stronger and Warren still has a shot (I still think your logic about her is more your personal feelings on her than what the voters might think). Biden I could see being very strong if there's a lot of chaos or a big war on, and he can make the case that he's a very experienced and stable pair of hands.

Sanders is the one I'm not entirely certain on. He won't have Clinton to run against, he won't be the only progressive there, but he does have a big cult of personality. Putting him behind Booker (honestly, putting Booker in the top 6 is wrong, I think) and Gillibrand is, I think, a mistake.

Gillibrand I'm just so certain will be painted as the second coming of Hillary, and I don't think she'll be able to shake that off. As for the dark horses, who do you think they could be?
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby gisambards » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:52 pm

Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:Sanders is the one I'm not entirely certain on. He won't have Clinton to run against, he won't be the only progressive there, but he does have a big cult of personality.

There is the possibility that the cult of personality will count against him, however. It could start to alienate those who aren't yet convinced, as did possibly start to happen right at the end of the 2016 primary.
Another issue to take into account with Sanders is that he's not actually a particularly good speaker - I think he benefited a lot last year from the fact he and Clinton were seen as the only realistic candidates so he got a lot of screentime. In a more crowded primary - particularly if there's someone more eloquent running with his politics, as will likely happen with Warren - he might not look so good and rely solely on that cult of personality. And I don't think that will be enough to win.
Personally, I really do think he's on the same tier as Gillibrand in terms of likelihood of winning. He'll probably start as a front-runner (if not the front-runner), but I don't think he'll see it through.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Krashlia » Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:20 pm

Sander's cult of personality creeps me out... Because of the implications.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby cmsellers » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:02 pm

Harris does have a clear weakness, though, and it's similar to the one that tripped up Wendy Davis (an one of the many problems with Hillary Clinton), but worse. She got her start in politics by sleeping with a more powerful man, a married black machine boss who gave her her first two political jobs.

Other Democrats almost certainly won't use this against her, but their PACs might, or it might spread through word-of-mouth. I'm doing my part on this last front because Republican PACs and Donald Trump will use it, because we still have a double standard when it comes to adultery and nepotism which means that it may be effective, and because it brought her down considerably in my own estimation.
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