Democratic Primary 2020

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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby gisambards » Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:15 pm

If anyone was interested in how the first candidate to declare, John Delaney, is currently doing:

(TL;DW: he gets booed for a full minute, fails to really recover)
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Krashlia » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:18 am

What was he thinking?

EDIT: like, I wouldn't call myself a big believer in Left leaning economic ideology but... Know your audience? Silence is golden?
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Last edited by Krashlia on Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Australia » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:15 am

Krashlia wrote:What was he thinking?

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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Aquila89 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:53 pm

Krashlia wrote:What was he thinking?


"I was the first to declare my candidacy, and nobody even knows that I'm running. Maybe if I say something really unpopular, they'll pay attention to me!"
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Crimson847 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:34 pm

Krashlia wrote:What was he thinking?


It did get him his first headlines in almost an ever.
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"If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them; but the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?"
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Crimson847 » Fri Jun 07, 2019 6:02 am

A story in three acts:

May 8th:


Yesterday:
Screenshot_2019-06-06 Joe Biden Still Backs Hyde Amendment, Which Bans Federal Funds for Abortions.png
Screenshot_2019-06-06 Joe Biden Still Backs Hyde Amendment, Which Bans Federal Funds for Abortions.png (27.43 KiB) Viewed 647 times


Today:
Screenshot_2019-06-06 Joe Biden reverses course and says he's against Hyde Amendment, which bans federal funding for aborti[...].png
Screenshot_2019-06-06 Joe Biden reverses course and says he's against Hyde Amendment, which bans federal funding for aborti[...].png (31.38 KiB) Viewed 647 times


For fuck's sake, Joe.
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"If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them; but the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?"
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby gisambards » Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:59 am

I noticed some of the headlines about Joe Biden and the Hyde Bill over the last couple days, but didn't read any of the articles. Did he actually change his mind twice in as many days, or was it a misunderstanding?
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Crimson847 » Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:25 pm

gisambards wrote:I noticed some of the headlines about Joe Biden and the Hyde Bill over the last couple days, but didn't read any of the articles. Did he actually change his mind twice in as many days, or was it a misunderstanding?


A couple days ago he "clarified" that he still supports the Hyde Amendment, and his campaign said that his exchange with the activist in May was a misunderstanding--he thought she was talking about the Mexico City policy. So according to the campaign he only flipped once, when he decided yesterday that he opposes the Hyde Amendment now. I don't find that reading very plausible after watching the video of the ACLU activist speaking with him, though.
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"If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them; but the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?"
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:16 am

Gravel, Bullock, Messam, and Moulton have all failed to qualify for the debates.Not that that's at all surprising; the only one of them who had a shot was Bullock and he sat on his hands waiting for the Montana State Legislature to finish.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby gisambards » Fri Jun 28, 2019 8:42 pm

The first debates happened. I didn't watch them but am currently going through various outlets' analysis. Honestly not sure at the moment whether it's worth going back to watch them in full. Did anyone watch them? Opinions?
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby cmsellers » Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:33 pm

I did not watch them, but I find helpful FiveThirtyEight's infographic on how the opinions of people who did watch them shifted.

It looks like the big winner is Kamala Harris and the big loser is Joe Biden. Klobuchar and Castro are arguably also winners, since, they saw dramatic jumps in support relative to baseline, but they're still at around 1-2% each. Warren and Sanders both picked up small amounts of support, and Buttigieg and O'Rourke lost small amounts of support. Beto lost support pretty uniformly, while Buttigieg's supporters mostly defected to Warren and Biden's disproportionately to Harris.

Castro had a huge jump in favorability; other candidates had smaller jumps but mostly still saw net favorability improve. Beto and Williamson's net favorabilities actually declined after the debate, but Williamson was never a factor anyways. Warren, Harris, and Castro were rated best by viewers relative to their pre-debate opinion of them, and Biden, Beto, Yang, and Williamson worst. Though as Tess has noted on Discord, Yang apparently had almost no opportunity to speak, and when he did speak he was laughed at.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby gisambards » Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:41 pm

I did think Warren got a bit of an unfair advantage relative to the other front-runners, by being put entirely against people who weren't generally seen as likely winners, while Biden, Harris and Sanders had to compete with each other (although Kamala seems to have used that to her advantage). Someone I'm surprised is considered to have come out well is Sanders, because he barely seems to get mentioned in coverage of the debate at all, which is bizarre for the guy in second place.

I do hope Harris keeps this momentum. I still like Joe Biden, but he's looking increasingly shaky and I think Harris remains the only other candidate I'd be confident could beat Trump. I hope Castro starts to be considered a serious contender too, because I do think there's something there that's been overlooked in favour of flashier but weaker candidates.

One of my favourite moments that I've seen so far is Cory Booker looking angry at Beto for responding to a question in fluent Spanish (although not actually answering the question), and then still trying to go ahead with his own pandering attempt, and just coming across like a robot trying to speak Klingon.
One of my least favourites was Amy Klobuchar's "zinger" at Jay Inslee, which the liberal media seem to have decided was some sort of brilliant take-down but which actually put me off her quite a bit. She appeared to be quite seriously suggesting that Inslee's solid record on abortion rights should be discounted because he's a man, which is ridiculously insulting, particularly when he has factually done more than her on abortion rights.

The treatment of Yang was a bit odd. I don't think he's a serious candidate, but if they're putting him on their debate stage they have to treat him like one. Marianne Williamson was given opportunities to make a fool of herself, though, and did so with gusto.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Sat Jun 29, 2019 1:19 am

I have to really debate that Sanders came out great. He kinda banged the same drums he always did, but he's not a front runner like Biden and he didn't really make a big statement like Harris so if he's not raising support for himself, that's not good. Especially if someone like Harris comes along as the compromise candidate between Biden establishment and Bernie populism, a lane I'm pretty convinced Warren could be slotted into, as well. I'm not surprised that Beto seemed lost the whole time, and everyone kinda rolled their eyes when he answered a question in Spanish (Even Warren in that one pic that's going around is like "Really, guy?"). I do think Castro really tore him down, and I was rather impressed by his performance. Warren did about what she needed to do in the JV Card (Which I'd argue is actually worse for a big candidate, Gis, because you spend your whole time punching down and don't get to be seen as a serious contender) which was avoid tussles with everyone else, make her points, and then kinda let everyone else eat each other. Disappointed that Klobuchar couldn't really sell herself, and unsurprised that Booker didn't really make an impact.

I think we can all agree that the real winner of these debate was WIlliamson, who spent the whole time being like "Hey, what if we all just loved each other, right?"
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby cmsellers » Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:04 am

Honestly, I think Harris has consistently one of the candidates whose electability I'm most worried about. Who I think is most and least electable has fluctuated a lot, but Harris has always been near the bottom, but still above Warren, who I'm convinced will lose. I'm still worried about her electability, but reactions to the debate reinforced concerns I had about several other candidates, so she's now in the middle of the pack in how electable I think candidates are, but because I think she's more electable, but simply because I think several other candidates are less so.

After the debate, I definitely thinks she's more electable than Biden, so seeing her gain at his expense is a net gain, even if I don't particularly like her or her electability. Harris was also the person I would have given a 40% chance of becoming the nominee two years ago, so I'm not really surprised that she basically won the debate.

Castro has always been a candidate I liked relatively well, but his debate performance has caused my opinion of him and his electability to diverge. On on hand, I like him more, but I'm somehow kind of getting Romneyesque vibes from him. And that, combined with his inability to translate favorability into first choice preferences has me worried that, if he wins, it will be as a compromise candidate because he's everybody's second choice, and that might result in an enthusiasm gap in the general.

ETA: FiveThirtyEight has a new article where they discuss their data explicitly, and some data not from their polling. The big surprise is in gains in Twitter followers. Harris, Castro, Buttigieg, Yang, Williamson, Warren, and Gabbard gained the most in Twitter followers, in that order. Based on FiveThirtyEight's polling, Buttigieg's performance was average or a little below, and Yang and Williamson's performance were way below average.

I'd also wondered what the overlap between Buttigieg and Warren was. The article points out that they're the only two major candidates who did not mention Trump once. So the similarity in appeal seems to be "let's focus on America's problems and not the clown in the White House; we saw how making the election about Trump worked for Hillary." Given that re-elections tend to be referendums in incumbents, and Hillary's loss was arguably in part because Comey's letter made the election about her, I'm not sure that's necessarily the right takeaway, but I certainly don't object to the strategy. Especially not for Warren. If she's the nominee and manages to keep this strategy up through the general election, I think it makes her look less like Trump is living in her head, and that means she might not actually be guaranteed to lose.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby tinyrick » Sat Jun 29, 2019 6:15 am

gisambards wrote:If anyone was interested in how the first candidate to declare, John Delaney, is currently doing:

(TL;DW: he gets booed for a full minute, fails to really recover)


His actual healthcare proposal isn't that bad, he's just really bad at presenting it. Even if we get a Democratic Senate, House, and Presidency, I doubt Medicare for All will actually pass thanks to the centrists. So despite what a Bernie or Warren Presidency actually promises, what they actually deliver will look like his plan. He wants a basic government plan that covers everybody, but you can buy supplemental insurance on the private market on top of that. Buying private insurance doesn't exclude you from the government plan, you're just buying more insurance. He wants the cheapest plans available through the ACA/Obamacare marketplace to serve as the baseline.

I don't see a real problem with this, cause I know not all countries with universal healthcare have a single payer system. Some countries have a system just like this and it's a major improvement on what the US has now. It also sets itself up to be expanded by future administrations.


https://www.johndelaney.com/issues/health-care/

Delaney is going to drop out early. He just wants to present a plan that will actually make it past the Senate assuming McTurtle isn't still in charge.
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