Democratic Primary 2020

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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Absentia » Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:54 am

Andrew Yang is the Ron Paul of the race, and 4chan can't help themselves.

As I pointed out on Discord: If your metric is how likely someone's agenda is to make it through Congress, you can write off almost the entire field. Even some of the nominally moderate candidates like Booker and Gillibrand have embraced Medicare For All and GND.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Marcuse » Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:23 pm

CMSellers wrote:@Marc: Beto or Trump? They could both shout that.


BOTH
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Absentia » Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:57 am

Pete Buttigieg had a CNN Town Hall and has been making the rounds on television, and he's gaining some buzz. He comes off as smart, humble, and capable of energizing a crowd; I've seen him described as "Beto, but not phony and annoying." I've also seen him compared to Jimmy Carter in 1976: a young, likeable, plainspoken guy from deep Republican territory that nobody has heard of. And while the Carter presidency probably isn't something you'd want to emulate, Carter's campaign in 1976 was maybe the unlikeliest success story in modern American politics.

Personally, I'd be happy to cast my vote for Mayor Pete. I'd say he's moved into my top 3 with Gillibrand looking dead in the water.

Also, "offbeat" 2008 candidate and very, very old man Mike Gravel has risen from the dead to troll the other candidates on Twitter. Apparently his goal is to earn enough donations to qualify for the debates and troll them in person on live TV. And at this point, why the hell not?
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:46 am

Spoiler: show
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This campaign, it.....it's so magical! *wipes away tear*
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Absentia » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:52 am

Part of me wants to believe that's really him running his own Twitter account, because I want to believe that I can be that snarky on whatever social media platform is big in 2075.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:22 am

He's on track toward filling the twitter void left by John Dingell
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby gisambards » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:08 am

John Dingell's Twitter could be pretty funny, felt at least partially genuine (and at the very least written by an adult), and made some valid points. So I'm honestly not seeing much of a comparison.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Marcuse » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:41 pm

President Trump
President Buttigieg

The secret to winning the Presidency is having a name referring to butts.

Sir Mix a Lot 2024
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Crimson847 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:20 pm

Mike Gravel eh? I was registered Republican at the time, but I was rooting for him in the 2008 primary.

Back then he was left-libertarianish, though (he switched to the Libertarian Party after the election), so I dunno what his beef is with "neoliberals" now.
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- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby cmsellers » Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:33 am

His tweets seem focused on foreign policy, which is an issue where he'd agree with a lot of movement libertarians. My own foreign policy views put me firmly in the neoliberal camp, but then I've never really been connected with movement libertarians. OTOH, Rand Paul has been a vocal critic of US support for the Saudis in Yemen, which I fully agree with.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:31 pm

I tend to think that there are three main 'lanes' for the primary right now. There's the "I alone can fix it" lane which would be occupied by your Sanderses, Warrenses, and hobbitses O'Rourkes, where it's less about what you plan to do and more about your soaring rhetoric. Then there's the "triangulation" lane which could benefit Booker, Harris, and potentially (though unlikely) Gillibrand, where it's a game of efficiently maximizing demographic groups to come out on top. Lastly, there's the "Do you want to beat Trump or not?" lane, which I would see Biden and Klobuchar (and maybe Inslee, if he caught fire) occupying.

I think which one wins probably depends on the state of the economy when the primary rolls around. With the 3 mo treasury yields flipping over the 10 yr treasury yields for the first time since 2007 and weakening fundamentals in the private sector/labor market, a sentence which probably made most of you instantaneously fall asleep, it's likely Trump will experience a recession sometime in his presidency (my bet is on Q2 2020) though it's not entirely impossible that the Fed handles it before a recession comes. If we're still in the depths of a recession by then, I believe we'll see the Warren or Sanders wing come out on top. If the recession is done but close to memory or on the way and Trump looks weakened, I tend to think we'll see the more triangulate-y candidates come out on top. If things are going well or the recession hit in 2019 and the economy's recovering well enough, I think Biden and Klobuchar have the best case to make.

So that's where my mind is at the moment, on the percentages. Harris and Biden are still my top picks, if Biden ever gets around to deciding he wants to run.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Wed Apr 10, 2019 3:04 am

Mike Gravel released his first campaign ad.
phpBB [video]
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Krashlia » Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:45 am

If Andrew Yang wants total support, he should drop all talk of Social Credit Scoring from his platform.
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Absentia » Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:15 am

Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:I tend to think that there are three main 'lanes' for the primary right now. There's the "I alone can fix it" lane which would be occupied by your Sanderses, Warrenses, and hobbitses O'Rourkes, where it's less about what you plan to do and more about your soaring rhetoric. Then there's the "triangulation" lane which could benefit Booker, Harris, and potentially (though unlikely) Gillibrand, where it's a game of efficiently maximizing demographic groups to come out on top. Lastly, there's the "Do you want to beat Trump or not?" lane, which I would see Biden and Klobuchar (and maybe Inslee, if he caught fire) occupying.


Going to have to push back on some of these:

Warren and Sanders both have lots of specific proposals about what they plan to do. Warren in particular never shuts up about them; one of the criticisms of her is that she is so policy focused that she can be tedious to listen to. (Hello, John Kerry.)

I think Booker is closer to the pragmatic moderate camp with Biden/Klobuchar/Buttigieg than the "woke", diversity-focused one, which I think consists mainly of Harris and O'rourke plus some of the more fringe candidates. (I don't think Booker would admit this if you asked him, because he does obviously want to build appeal with black voters, but he also talks a lot about working across the aisle.)

Inslee is more of a "boutique," conversation-starter candidate than anything else. He's been pretty open that he's running as the climate change guy. If I were putting him in a lane I would group him with Yang (the UBI guy) and Gravel (the "make the DNC look silly" guy).
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Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Absentia » Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:31 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/04/12/2020-candidate-pete-buttigieg-on-taxing-the-rich-future-of-us-capitalism.html

About halfway through reading this CNBC interview with Buttigieg, I decided that he's my guy.

I could gush about it at length, but the bottom line is that I agree with every word he says and he says it exceptionally well. He gets it. It's incredibly refreshing. I'm sold.
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