Democratic Primary 2020

What's happening in your world? Discuss it here.
Forum rules
Play nice. We will be watching

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:34 pm

Crimson847 wrote:
Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:Are you sure it's not just because you seem to despise California and the Northeast more than any person I've seen in my entire life (and that includes a lot of conservatives)?


While I also don't see much sense in cm's political decision-making process, I'm not sure how this follows given his fondness for Chafee and his vote for Sanders, both Northeastern politicians.


That aside, I'm with Sunny; personally I don't have much interest in discussing the matter until people actually declare their candidacies and announce platforms and such. It's nearly 100% speculation at this point--anyone remember in 2012/2013 when Paul Ryan was considered a leading contender for the 2016 Republican nomination? Or in 2005 when nobody knew who the hell Barack Obama was?


It's just that the last time I mentioned Massachusetts and Connecticut in the same sentence, an unearthly howl echoed in my apartment and his hands popped out of the screen and clawed for my eyes.

To your second point: remember in 2009, when everyone knew that Hillary Clinton was going to be the next Democratic nominee? And the only thing that surprised me about Trump's candidacy is that he didn't go for it in 2012, when I thought he would. I mean, nobody was really surprised by the people who ran for president in 2016. Except Lincoln Chafee, Jim Webb, Martin O' Malley and that one dude in the Republican primary whose name I can't even remember that won like .01% of the vote in Iowa Ed Gilespie, but only because nobody knew who the hell they were.

There could be an Obama-esque relatively unknown that comes out of nowhere, but *shrug*.

Ah, and for two I forgot that were mentioned here: Kirsten Gillibrand. Not happening. She's an older, blond, centrist female Democrat who literally took Hillary's seat when she vacated it. Is it fair? No, and God bless her, she's trying to separate herself from it, but it's still there.

Tim Kaine: Also not happening. Charisma isn't mandatory anymore, but instead of being too much fire, he's too much bland. I think I saw eight Tim Kaines at work today when I was walking back from the bathroom.
  • 7

Doodle Dee. Snickers
TCS Junkie
TCS Junkie
 
Posts: 2682
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 8:15 pm
Show rep

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby cmsellers » Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:05 pm

Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:Are you sure it's not just because you seem to despise California and the Northeast more than any person I've seen in my entire life (and that includes a lot of conservatives)?

I'm not sure why you think I have an issue with the Northeast. I'm from Massachusetts. I make fun of all the nearby states, but for the most part it's all in jest.

My comments on California are a result of several things: 1. There's several things that genuinely annoy me about the politics of the state, 2. I live in the only part of Texas that likes California and therefore mock it out of perversity, and 3. there's a certain type of holier-than-thou Californian whom I find more insufferable even than the most proudly ignorant, bible-banging Alabaman, or "aw shucks, we's just regular folks who get pissed when you wish us a 'Happy Holidays'" Michigander, and we have at least two Californians who display tendencies of this sort on TCS. (I'm actually friends with one of them, but still need to needle him.) It's a pretty state and the top-two primary and non-partisan districts are miles ahead of most of the country, but it's also expensive, full of Californians, and bans half the pets I currently have and most of the ones I want to.

Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:It's just that the last time I mentioned Massachusetts and Connecticut in the same sentence, an unearthly howl echoed in my apartment and his hands popped out of the screen and clawed for my eyes.

Ahh. That's because I'm from Western Massachusetts, the citadel which keeps Connecticunts from infecting the rest of New England with their wannabe New Yorkiness. Connecticut is the worst state. Of course I got offended when you compared it to my home state, which is objectively the best state in the country.
  • 4

User avatar
cmsellers
TCS Junkie
TCS Junkie
 
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sun Apr 14, 2013 7:20 pm
Location: Three miles from the bat bridge
Show rep
Title: The Bad Bart of Ruddigore

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:10 pm

cmsellers wrote:
Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:Are you sure it's not just because you seem to despise California and the Northeast more than any person I've seen in my entire life (and that includes a lot of conservatives)?

I'm not sure why you think I have an issue with the Northeast. I'm from Massachusetts. I make fun of all the nearby states, but for the most part it's all in jest.

My comments on California are a result of several things: 1. There's several things that genuinely annoy me about the politics of the state, 2. I live in the only part of Texas that likes California and therefore mock it out of perversity, and 3. there's a certain type of holier-than-thou Californian whom I find more insufferable even than the most proudly ignorant, bible-banging Alabaman, or "aw shucks, we's just regular folks who get pissed when you wish us a 'Happy Holidays'" Michigander, and we have at least two Californians who display tendencies of this sort on TCS. (I'm actually friends with one of them, but still need to needle him.) It's a pretty state and the top-two primary and non-partisan districts are miles ahead of most of the country, but it's also expensive, full of Californians, and bans half the pets I currently have and most of the ones I want to.

Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:It's just that the last time I mentioned Massachusetts and Connecticut in the same sentence, an unearthly howl echoed in my apartment and his hands popped out of the screen and clawed for my eyes.

Ahh. That's because I'm from Western Massachusetts, the citadel which keeps Connecticunts from infecting the rest of New England with their wannabe New Yorkiness. Connecticut is the worst state. Of course I got offended when you compared it to my home state, which is objectively the best state in the country.


Eh, I see California and Texas being the opposite side of the same coin. I wish they'd just get it over with and either fuck or go to war already so that Florida can sneak up from behind and shank both of them, as is our lot.

Also, the Massachusetts-Connecticut thing strikes me as weird--not you specifically, just that I'm a child of about eight different states, so I always find regional or state...loyalty, for lack of a better term...strange. Still, I think we all know what the best state is:

Image

Seriously, I'm not sure I can recall a single unkind word ever spoken to me about Colorado. Still don't get your logic about Warren, though.
  • 4

Doodle Dee. Snickers
TCS Junkie
TCS Junkie
 
Posts: 2682
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 8:15 pm
Show rep

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Tesseracts » Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:25 pm

The flag of Colorado is the ugliest thing I have ever seen.

Sorry that is my only political opinion today.
  • 10

User avatar
Tesseracts
Big Brother
Big Brother
 
Posts: 9575
Joined: Sat Apr 13, 2013 5:31 am
Show rep
Title: Social Media Expert

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Crimson847 » Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:32 pm

Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:It's just that the last time I mentioned Massachusetts and Connecticut in the same sentence, an unearthly howl echoed in my apartment and his hands popped out of the screen and clawed for my eyes.


Alright, that's funny, I'll give you that.

To your second point: remember in 2009, when everyone knew that Hillary Clinton was going to be the next Democratic nominee? And the only thing that surprised me about Trump's candidacy is that he didn't go for it in 2012, when I thought he would.


You knew Trump was going to be the nominee before 2012? Why didn't you warn us?

*grabs Doodles by the shoulders and shakes him violently*

GOD DAMN IT WHY DIDN'T YOU WARN US?!?!?
  • 10

"If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them; but the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?"
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
User avatar
Crimson847
TCS Junkie
TCS Junkie
 
Posts: 3017
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 5:18 am
Show rep

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:38 pm

Crimson847 wrote:
Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:It's just that the last time I mentioned Massachusetts and Connecticut in the same sentence, an unearthly howl echoed in my apartment and his hands popped out of the screen and clawed for my eyes.


Alright, that's funny, I'll give you that.

To your second point: remember in 2009, when everyone knew that Hillary Clinton was going to be the next Democratic nominee? And the only thing that surprised me about Trump's candidacy is that he didn't go for it in 2012, when I thought he would.


You knew Trump was going to be the nominee before 2012? Why didn't you warn us?

*grabs Doodles by the shoulders and shakes him violently*

GOD DAMN IT WHY DIDN'T YOU WARN US?!?!?


Oh, I didn't know he'd be the nominee, I didn't think so until SC. But I suspected he would run.
  • 5

Doodle Dee. Snickers
TCS Junkie
TCS Junkie
 
Posts: 2682
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 8:15 pm
Show rep

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby tinyrick » Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:42 pm

cmsellers wrote:To win the electoral college, a Democrat will have to either make inroads in the Sun Belt (Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina), or take back the Midwest. I don't know of any Democrat who's particularly suited to the former (you'd need to recreate something like the Obama coalition without alienating Southern whites without a college degree), but there are at least two names I see a lot of who might be able to take back the Midwest (aside from Duckworth and Biden, whom I've already mentioned): Sherrod Brown and Amy Klobuchar.


I want to remind people that Trump is from New York City, excuse me, I mean (((New York City))), and he managed to win the South in the primary even though New York is the devil. I'd also like to remind people that being from an area doesn't guarantee success in that area. Not these days. I'm originally from Tennessee. Did we vote for Al Gore in 2000? The answer is no. No we did not. We should have, but we didn't.
  • 6

YEEEEEEAAAHHHHH!!! Tiny Rick!
User avatar
tinyrick
TCS Regular
TCS Regular
 
Posts: 400
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:37 am
Location: Underground Bunker, USA
Show rep

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby cmsellers » Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:48 pm

Colorado had the bad sense to elect Cory Gardner as a Senator. There, I said it. Colorado's record is slightly flawed. Also, the "C" on their flag is bad design: you shouldn't put letters on flags.

The issue with Warren isn't solely that she's too liberal. I still think Bernie Sanders would have swept Trump in the Midwest and given him a run for his money in traditionally red states. It's that Bernie Sanders has a long-established and well-earned reputation for being trustworthy. He also has a certain charisma which many politicians lack, including Warren. I think that, as a veteran who focuses on veteran's issues Tulsi Gabbard would also be able to win over those same voters, despite being as liberal as Bernie Sanders and an Asian-American woman to boot, and also that she would play well in Arizona, Texas, and Florida. (As I've said before, my dream ticket is Duckworth/Gabbard.)

My point about identity politics is that many years ago, Elizabeth Warren got a job as a law professor while claiming to be American Indian. This was because, like many Americans, her family legends say she's part Cherokee; she likely genuinely believed it. However she applied to the job as an American Indian despite never having dealt with the issues Indians actually face, and at the time she was her department's only "non-white" professor. It's likely but not certain that she was a beneficiary of race-based affirmative action despite being whiter than Hitler. And conservatives have latched onto this.

Just like Hillary's emails, it's one thing which happens to play to an already problematic narrative. In this election, it's clear that the Democrats want to nominate a woman and/or minority, and she was probably nominated in Massachusetts because she's a woman. Despite Martha Coakley being a terrible candidate, I remember a lot of people I knew being really upset that Massachusetts blew our opportunity to elect our first female senator by electing a white Republican man. It was clear a lot of them had voted for Coakley in the primaries solely because she was a woman (being a Democrat also played a role in the general) and they wanted to make that right in 2012. So you have a narrative that at every step of the way, Warren has been a beneficiary of affirmative action. And for people who think that the Democrats are favoring racial minorities, women, Muslims, and trans people over white Christian male Real Americans™ this narrative promises to be incredibly toxic.

Whereas I think Bernie's politics would help him with the voters Clinton lost to Trump, I think the "Pocahontas" narrative will override her politics and hurt her with those same voters. Unlike Hillary's emails, or Kamala Harris getting her first two political positions as a result of sleeping with a married machine boss, I think this is a complete non-issue, not a genuine issue which is/will be blown out of proportion. (It's a bit obnoxious that she claimed to be an Indian when she has no personal experience with the issues Indians face, but it was decades ago and it's something which many, many Americans do.) However I'm absolutely certain that this is going to be a problem for her in the general election.

Her being too liberal just means that she has little chance of winning over suburban Republicans who are disaffected with Trump. Like I said, there are basically two paths to a Democratic Electoral College victory: win back Obama voters who voted for Trump or stayed home in the Midwest and Florida, or win over new voters in the "Sun Belt" states of Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas. And Warren seems likely to do neither.
  • 4

User avatar
cmsellers
TCS Junkie
TCS Junkie
 
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sun Apr 14, 2013 7:20 pm
Location: Three miles from the bat bridge
Show rep
Title: The Bad Bart of Ruddigore

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Doodle Dee. Snickers » Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:53 pm

cmsellers wrote:-snip-


Can't believe it took me this long to get to this.

Anyways, I get that you're trying to do the bed of nails thing again, but you keep acting like Clinton had one problem and was otherwise a completely perfect candidate, and that one thing was why she lost. She had like...eight million different problems or perceived problems (her closeness with Wall Street, her association with globalism in a time where plenty of liberals were also not big fans, her complete lack of charisma, being married to a president who was [and let's be honest about this] shady as fuck, the perception that she felt entitled to it being 'her turn this time', the bruising primary with Bernie, she was a woman and some people weren't comfortable with that, she'd been in government forever in a time where people wanted an outsider, she had the whole Libya thing dragging her down, Obama had a blind spot for the economic recovery in the midwest and it screwed her, and I could still go on) that dragged her down. To many people (including me) it was a Madman v Lady Nixon.

I'm not stumping for Warren here, your argument just makes zero sense. Trump's been like...fifteen points underwater since May, can you imagine what he's going to look like in four years (and more than likely, with the people of America having nothing to show for all the shit he collectively put us through)? Do you really believe the whole Pocahontas thing is going to drag her down so much compared to the pile of failure that is Trump? Do you really believe that anyone who (again) isn't Anthony Weiner will really look more ridiculous than Trump will in three years?

I think the Democrats get it. They need an economic message for the working class and the lower middle class, and somehow, given Trump's tax plan and the health care bills he desperately wanted to sign, I don't think those people are going to be any better off years from now under Trump.
  • 6

Last edited by Doodle Dee. Snickers on Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Doodle Dee. Snickers
TCS Junkie
TCS Junkie
 
Posts: 2682
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 8:15 pm
Show rep

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Deathclaw_Puncher » Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:14 pm

Harris, Warner, Wyden, or Booker is my bet.

Though Sheldon Whitehouse really needs to run for President.
  • 1

"Schmibby Dibby Kabibby"- Alex Hirsch

"When in doubt, meow it out!"- Bex Taylor-Klaus
User avatar
Deathclaw_Puncher
Knight Writer
Knight Writer
 
Posts: 12014
Joined: Sun Apr 14, 2013 9:42 pm
Location: Fair Oaks, CA
Show rep
Title: Queen of the Cerignola Olives

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby tinyrick » Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:32 am

Clinton warns Harris and Warren of double standard.

It's not that she's wrong, but I think there was a lot more going on in the last election than just sexism. I think Trump tapped into working class resentment towards trade agreements, which is why he kept trying to divert towards that topic during the debates.

As far as sexism goes, yeah it didn't help that Hillary was a woman, but Harris has an advantage over Clinton that I really hate to bring up.

Kamala Harris looks like this:

Image

Hillary Clinton looks like this:

Image

Harris is pretty. Clinton is not. I really hate being the one to point this out, but yeah, that's going to make a difference. It's easy to paint your target as the wicked witch of the west when she looks the part. Kinda hard to when she doesn't. Here's the most unflattering picture of Harris I can find.

Image

She still looks good.

Edit: In case you're wondering the point behind this post. It's that if you're a woman running for public office, looks matter more than if you're a man. It's not fair, but it's there.
  • 2

YEEEEEEAAAHHHHH!!! Tiny Rick!
User avatar
tinyrick
TCS Regular
TCS Regular
 
Posts: 400
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:37 am
Location: Underground Bunker, USA
Show rep

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Lindvaettr » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:17 pm

While I don't disagree that there's a double standard against women in many cases, I don't think Hillary Clinton's issues were primarily due to double standards. The simple fact is that, when it comes to being charismatic and likable, Hillary is (and always has been, to my knowledge) much closer to Kerry and Gore than to her husband Bill. Sure, she may have suffered from double standards, but she suffered much more from just not being a very likable candidate. As history has shown us since at least Kennedy, personally unlikable Republicans can win, but personally unlikable Democrats don't, ever.
  • 3

User avatar
Lindvaettr
TCS Camper
TCS Camper
 
Posts: 975
Joined: Sun Apr 14, 2013 3:19 am
Location: Various, depending on time and day
Show rep
Title: Lord of the Dance

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby gisambards » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:46 pm

The fact Clinton is still talking about the double standard really betrays that she still doesn't get why she lost. While I'm sure it counted against her on some level, I doubt it can be much worse than how much being black counted against Obama.
But I don't think charisma was the issue either. Nearly every analysis of how Clinton lost seems to ignore the simple fact that she actually won the vote. Sure it was close, and that probably was in part because of her lack of charisma, but the majority of the nation did actually choose her over the other guy. The principal reasons she lost can only be found by looking at specific issues in the states that flipped to red. And I honestly don't think either her being a woman or her being uncharismatic can be considered major factors for her loss there, if they didn't stop her winning in the nation as a whole.
  • 7

User avatar
gisambards
Time Waster
Time Waster
 
Posts: 1938
Joined: Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:45 pm
Show rep

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Crimson847 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:07 pm

Doodle Dee. Snickers wrote:
cmsellers wrote:-snip-


Can't believe it took me this long to get to this.

Anyways, I get that you're trying to do the bed of nails thing again, but you keep acting like Clinton had one problem and was otherwise a completely perfect candidate, and that one thing was why she lost. She had like...eight million different problems or perceived problems (her closeness with Wall Street, her association with globalism in a time where plenty of liberals were also not big fans, her complete lack of charisma, being married to a president who was [and let's be honest about this] shady as fuck, the perception that she felt entitled to it being 'her turn this time', the bruising primary with Bernie, she was a woman and some people weren't comfortable with that, she'd been in government forever in a time where people wanted an outsider, she had the whole Libya thing dragging her down, Obama had a blind spot for the economic recovery in the midwest and it screwed her, and I could still go on) that dragged her down. To many people (including me) it was a Madman v Lady Nixon.


Clearly you two haven't been introduced. Doodles, this is cmsellers; he spent the whole election season making precisely this argument, complete with most of the same brush strokes (she's an insider, Bill's shady as fuck, she has no charisma, she thinks it's "her turn", Lady Nixon, etc.). Cmsellers, this is Doodles; for some reason he seems to have mistaken you for me or aviel.


I'm not stumping for Warren here, your argument just makes zero sense. Trump's been like...fifteen points underwater since May, can you imagine what he's going to look like in four years (and more than likely, with the people of America having nothing to show for all the shit he collectively put us through)? Do you really believe the whole Pocahontas thing is going to drag her down so much compared to the pile of failure that is Trump? Do you really believe that anyone who (again) isn't Anthony Weiner will really look more ridiculous than Trump will in three years?


Out of curiosity, have you noticed that Trump's favorability rating, as low as it is, is better than it was when he won the election?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -5493.html
  • 4

"If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them; but the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?"
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
User avatar
Crimson847
TCS Junkie
TCS Junkie
 
Posts: 3017
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 5:18 am
Show rep

Re: Democratic Primary 2020

Postby Kate » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:35 am

Tesseracts wrote:The flag of Colorado is the ugliest thing I have ever seen.

Sorry that is my only political opinion today.

Take it back.

TAKE IT BACK NOW.

Nah, just kidding, but I love my new flag. It's certainly a lot easier on the eyes than my old flag:

Image

Ahem.

Related: O'Malley was not a surprise to anyone who can immediately recognize how grueling it is to draw that flag as a fourth grader. O'Malley's been gunning for the presidency for a long time and every now and then when I'm a little gloomy about Trump, I think, "Well, it could've been worse. It could've been O'Malley."

On that note, the only declared major candidate I know of is also from my old home state. John Delaney, a representative who won his seat thanks to gerrymandering, because Maryland is basically the only state in the US where gerrymandering benefits Democrats. Governor Martin O'Malley outright admitted that his hope was that this would shift the vote to favor Democrats. It's super amusing because if you click on the Tenure portion, it starts with,"Since his election to Congress, Delaney introduced legislation to end partisan gerrymandering." But actually, he's pretty unobjectionable. I think he's got a snowball's chance in hell because no one knows who he is, but hey, miracles do happen.

I do think sellers is right about Warren, though. Conservatives have hated her for years, and the Native American thing is something that hurts her even more among social justice millennials than it does among conservatives, since they believe in cultural appropriation. And they're not exactly voting for conservatives. I think it would be a huge mistake to run Elizabeth Warren.
  • 4

JT's Art Thread - JamesT's awesome stuff.
User avatar
Kate
Gul DuKate
Gul DuKate
 
Posts: 2926
Joined: Sun Apr 14, 2013 10:08 am
Location: Assembling Future Kate
Show rep
Title: Sheepwoman

PreviousNext

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests