by Doodle Dee. Snickers » Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:36 am
Updated 2020 picks now that we're about to close out the year. Ranked in order of probability:
The Top Tier
1. Still Senator Kamala Harris. I still think she probably has the best chance. She's kinda toeing the line right now of gaining notoriety without becoming so noticeable as to get dragged into the ring with Trump--which does boost your profile but also ends up making you seem like less of a fresh candidate. Like I said before, she's a black woman--which are the engine of the party--she would be a good consensus candidate between liberals and progressives, and she's got a good donor base in California.
2. Former VP Joe Biden. Since this #metoo moment has drawn more attention to the Anita Hill hearings (to his detriment), I've kinda turned down the heat on this one. I think the Democratic base wants someone fresh and new, while Biden is the old guard. There are still a lot of ways I think he sees himself become the nominee (and he's almost certainly running), but I think there's still three years to go, and his age is going to be a problem, as is his...well-documented handsiness.
3. Senator Elizabeth Warren/Senator Bernie Sanders. Whichever of this one runs, I think the other one won't, and I can't actually tell which one is planning on it. The problem I have with Bernie is that he has an enthusiastic and big base in the Democratic Primary, but I think part of his popularity will be co-opted by his fellow candidates who will run to the left of Clinton. Plus, he's kinda old news, and that could tarnish him somewhat, and there are a lot of people in the party (including voters) who are still pretty pissed at him about 2016.
As for Elizabeth Warren, sure she has that one Native American thing, but I don't really think it will be a big deal. She was an OG progressive before it was cool (frankly, before anyone even knew who Bernie was), and she's a lot more...capable and persuasive than he is. That said, she's a better opposition than she is an inspiring speaker, and that can trip her up--though maybe that's a plus against Trump. She'll be a pugilist where Clinton wasn't.
The Possibles
4. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. Her stock's risen from where it was at "No fucking way" to "Still probably not" in my eyes. Let's be real, cutting ties with Clinton was such a bald political move that I don't think anyone's gonna be convinced by it. While there is this big #metoo moment, it may be old hat by 2020, and you're gonna need more of a message than anti-sexual assault, as our current president proves. My problem with her is that she's still too easily framed as a clone of Hillary Clinton (remembering that she still has Hillary's old Senate seat) and I think she's seen as being too plainly calculating and flip-flopping to really catch on with a Democratic base that's not particularly eager for another Machiavellian centrist white female Democrat from New York. Again, it's not fair, but it's there, so I think it'll be a problem.
Also, she's been generating too much notice too early, I think. In a hyper-aware political environment, I'm not certain that's a good thing. Better that you come out of psuedo-nowhere than give Trump and the RNC years to run against you a la Clinton.
5. Sen. Cory Booker. He faces the same exact problems as Gillibrand, I think. He's seen as being too centrist, too corporate-friendly, and simply too politically calculating. Again, the Democratic base is just as tired as the old political dynasty as the Republicans are, and Booker carries a lot of the problems of that, I think. If Harris runs, and I'm pretty sure she plans to, he's got no shot in my mind.
The Dark Horses
6. Sen. Mark Warner. He's a centrist Democrat who actually has a lot of new and different ideas on how to bring up wages in the current environment. He could have a solid economic message, has a good reputation on the hill, and has been 1/2 of the Senate investigation into Russian influence. He could have a lot of notoriety among Democrats, depending on how the investigation goes.
7. Sen. (Jesus Christ this is a lot of Senators) Sherrod Brown. While I continue to think he would be a great VP candidate, there will be too many progressives in the field for him to really have a shot at the presidential nomination.
8. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. She's very low profile now, but she did visit with Bashar-Al-Assad at the beginning of the term and looks like she might be mulling it over. She's apparently pretty competent, she's a veteran, and it helps that she's good-looking (don't look at me like that, we all know it helps).
The "No-Way Unless Everyone Else Has A Simultaneous Stroke on Stage"s
9. Sen. Tim Kaine. Everyone's favorite living dad joke. My same complaints with him as before.
10. Mayor Bill DeBlasio. I'm not sure why he has no chance, I just don't think he does. For some reason, everyone seems to think he's a giant showboat even though he's actually done a lot of good for NYC (from what I understand). So I'm gonna say no, even if he has a good case to make.
The "Would Win if They Were Running, but They're Not Running"s
323,000,000. Michelle Obama. She's not running.
323,000,001. The Rock. He's not running. This time.
The Absolutely No Way in a Million Years Will We Put Ourselves Through This Shit Again
323,100,001. Hillary Clinton.
BONUS ROUND: POTENTIAL VIP CANDIDATES
1. Sherrod Brown. Swing state Democrat, would be a good progressive candidate in case the schism in the Democratic party wounds a more centrist Presidential candidate.
2. Kamala Harris. I'm making this pick with Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden in mind. I think either of them will need someone younger, will need to appeal to black voters, and in Biden's case, pick up a little more progressive cred.
3. Doug Jones. Let's be honest: barring some kind of seismic shift in the electorate by 2020, Doug Jones is going to lose his seat, so the party could avoid losing face in Alabama. With North Carolina and Georgia slowly turning more blue (a trend accelerating in the Trump years), he won't pull in Alabama but could make a play at one of those slowly-going-blue southern states, more moderate Republicans, and perhaps even pick up some red-leaning votes in Northern Florida to give them the edge in the Sunshine State. It helps that he does have some moderately liberal cred; he's surprisingly liberal for a guy elected in Alabama.
4. Elizabeth Warren/Bernie Sanders. Same reasoning as Sherrod Brown, but in case he doesn't accept.
Keep in mind that the primary's gonna be crowded like the Republican one in 2016. Nobody's being crowned king/queen in this one, there's a very solid chance this looks like Trump's victory where there are a jillion candidates and the one with 30% of the vote outlasts everyone else.