German Election Results

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German Election Results

Postby Marcuse » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:38 pm

Germany held it's general election yesterday, and the results are more or less in.

CDU/CSU - 33%
SPD - 20.5%
AFD - 12.6%
FDP - 10.7%
Left - 9.2%
Greens - 8.9%

This is a win for Merkel and CDU, but also a stunning loss as well. For those not familiar with the party designations in Germany, the third place party is AFD: Alternative Fur Deutschland. They're a far right party running on an anti-immigration, anti-Islam and anti-Euro platform. It's the first time they've had any members of the Bundestag and it's pretty shocking for post war Germany. There's been protests outside AFD HQ, which have naturally been a bit violent.

More pertinently, the position AFD occupies has prompted a response already. The SPD (social democrats), formerly in coalition with the CDU, have decided to rule out the possibility of forming a new coalition with the CDU. This is partly because their leader failed to make his attacks on Merkel hit home largely because he was, as deputy in the coalition, involved in the decisions she was making. However, it's also a tactical move to make it impossible for AFD to form the official opposition, which would carry certain privileges nobody seems to want them to have. What I'm reading seems to suggest that the SPD wants to limit AFD influence by dominating the opposition parties, presumably because Die Linke would work alongside them to freeze out AFD.

Indeed, it seems that everything is being done to ostracise and limit AFD before its even taken any seats. No party will agree to work with them, which means unless they manage to somehow win an outright majority in seats (which is incredibly unlikely in a PR system) they won't ever be able to form any kind of government. Germany of today is very aware of the past, and I don't think this means much more in practice than it means for there to be far right parties in France, Holland or the UK. It's just unprecedented in modern Germany.

This places the CDU in the unenviable task of negotiating a coalition with the FDP (the Free Democrats, a liberal party focused on free markets) and the Greens. Given they're more or less opposites, with the CDU in between, it's probably going to be a challenge to keep such a government intact. It's predicted to take months to arrange such a ruling coalition.
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Re: German Election Results

Postby Askias » Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:01 pm

Marcuse wrote:Indeed, it seems that everything is being done to ostracise and limit AFD before its even taken any seats. No party will agree to work with them, which means unless they manage to somehow win an outright majority in seats (which is incredibly unlikely in a PR system) they won't ever be able to form any kind of government.

This places the CDU in the unenviable task of negotiating a coalition with the FDP (the Free Democrats, a liberal party focused on free markets) and the Greens. Given they're more or less opposites, with the CDU in between, it's probably going to be a challenge to keep such a government intact. It's predicted to take months to arrange such a ruling coalition.

As someone in a country with very similar results last election in March (Coming off a centre coalition between a large left-wing and large right-wing party, the right-wing party losing but not enough to take away their dominant position, the left-wing party doing unprecedently badly and resigning themselves to opposition before talks begin, a good result for the far right party who has been pre-emptively excluded by all other parties, leaving only a large coalition between usually badly compatible parties) and who still doesn't have a government, I wish them luck. It's going to take a while.
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Re: German Election Results

Postby Askias » Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:19 pm

Jeez, the Germans are quitters. My country went over 200 days before a coalition was agreed upon, but the parties of the so-called Jamaica coalition have broken down formation talks after only two and a half months.

With so few options on the table, it’s quite possible the election will have to be re-held. Whether that wouldn’t make the problem worse is another matter.

The alternative is the SPD moving to govern again. Honestly I see why they resigned themselves to opposition, but like Labour in my country I’d much rather see them in office for the voters they have than benched for the voters they lost. I know the old SDP-CDU would be a very small majority but call in anyone else and you’ve got a solid basis again. The Netherlands is currently running on a 51% (1-seat) majority between four parties, sometimes the chips just fall a certain way.
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Last edited by Askias on Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: German Election Results

Postby Marcuse » Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:27 pm

I think the collapse of the talks between the CDU, FDP and Greens was probably pre-ordained by their political variety. Where it might have further reaching effects is further discrediting the leadership of Angela Merkel. There's already talk in the media of whether the CDU would want to enter a re-election under Merkel still. She's definitely not over and done with yet, but her authority appears to be slipping away with this latest setback.

Like Askias, I'm unsure where that places the SPD. Isn't it usual among PR electoral systems for the second largest party to try to form a government if the largest party fails? If they have resigned themselves to opposition for the next term, maybe they'd even reject the opportunity, but that seems not to behove them if they're being asked to try to form a government.
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Re: German Election Results

Postby cmsellers » Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:50 pm

My understanding is that the FDP is basically a libertarian party while the Greens are the furthest right economically of any national Green Party. So if they'd agreed on an agenda for economic reform which included decreased regulations in most areas plus increased regulation on the environment, it seems like it could have worked. However the FDP and Greens have socially liberal voters while the CDU has socially conservative ones, so if any party thought social issues needed to be addressed, I can see how it was doomed.
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Re: German Election Results

Postby Marcuse » Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:07 pm

This is a nice overview of the state and policies of the FDP. It also mentions why the CDU/CSU Green FDP coalition was doomed to failure:

The traditional enmity between the Green Party and the Free Democrats runs deep - the FDP has never forgiven the Greens for usurping its status as Germany's third political power.


This is a handy summary of the negotiating sticking points. But from the statements of the leader of the FDP it was that the agreed items were being questioned over again that seemed to make them want to walk out. I can imagine it'd be intensely frustrating to have issues you'd thought solved reopened over and again.

Edit: Oh and Merkel has said she'd prefer fresh elections to a minority government with the Greens, probably because the CDU tends to stand on the opposite side of most issues with the Greens. I'm not sure if that's not a mistake though, and it might end up allowing AFD (whom nobody is talking about again) to present their insurgent politics as causing such upheaval that they can do more if they get more votes. Nothing bad ever happened in Germany when a far right party gains more and more of the vote in snap re-runs of elections.

Voila:

BBC wrote:Despite Mrs Merkel's words about a fresh poll, analysts say the new elections would be likely to benefit the anti-Islam, anti-immigrant AfD most, so other parties would probably try to avoid them.
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