A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby Marcuse » Mon Jul 04, 2016 5:00 pm

Just look in the Appendix from the first book and you'll see who Dany's parents were. Aerys and Rhaella. Their brother was Rhaegar. That's why she's a child of three. He was much older but these things happen. Prince Aegon, who is with Jon Connington, is Dany's nephew, even though they're about the same age. That happens sometimes.


Just like Jon Snow is totally Ned Stark's bastard? The guides and appendices are useful guides for the beginning of each book, but they're out of date even by the end of the books they refer to. For example, the Stark one is in pieces by the end of book 3, so they're no more reliable than anything else.

Some of the facts about Dany's information about it don't make sense, and everyone else who was there is dead already. Ser Willem Darry, Viserys, any of the lost Targaryen household at the time, Rhaella. None of these people are alive to tell the tale and Dany has numerous gaps and inconsistencies in her memory.

Also, Aegon is totally a fake. Everything about him and his entourage screams fake.

Quentyn Martell surviving would be useless as a story mechanism, because he has failed his mission either way and has no more to do. But he clearly burned very badly.


I don't remember if I linked this before so I'll do it again.



There's a lot of inconsistencies about the circumstances of Quent's supposed death, along with a tone that continually tells us "burned bones mean nothing". The description of his burning is completely different from that of the Astapori slaver who was burned by Drogon, who died instantly. Events are confused, the account of the two companions is contradictory. A lot of it is missing, with the direct account missing when Quent is supposedly on fire.

I know there's a lot of details and stuff to keep track of, but there's no point looking for secret clues for what's going to happen next. Just wait it out like everyone else and enjoy the surprise.


I don't do it because I'm itching to know what happened next and it's causing me to worry. I'm just cruising through the books over again and enjoying picking out little details that I wouldn't have noticed on the first, second or third readings. This is just idle fun to me.
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby CarrieVS » Mon Jul 04, 2016 7:31 pm

Malfeasinator wrote:"The Dornish Prince was three days dying.
He took his last shuddering breath in the bleak black dawn..."

A chapter from Barristan's point of view goes into details about his death. Dude died on Dany's bed, everything reeked of blood and smoke, he had no lips because they were melted off. It also says this:

"After the girl was gone, the old knight peeled back the coverlet for one last look at Quentyn Martell's face, or what remained of it. So much of the prince's flesh had sloughed away that he could see the skull beneath. His eyes were pools of pus..."

There's no coming back from that. He's gone..


I don't personally buy the theory that Quentyn's alive, but the person who died on Dany's bed was well and truly beyond recognition. We only know it's Quentyn because we 'know' that he was burned and because his companions and those who were there when it happened appear to be certain it's him.

I say I don't buy it primarily because I think the deconstruction of the fairytale prince is too neat and too far up GRRM's street to be a fakeout.
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby Marcuse » Fri Jul 08, 2016 1:10 am

Why oh why was Tyrek Lannister kidnapped?

"Wait a minute," I hear you say, "who the hell is Tyrek Lannister?"

Well I'm glad you asked hypothetical representation of a person that asks questions. Tyrek Lannister is the son of Tygett Lannister and Darlessa Marbrand. He was Robert's other squire, alongside Lancel. Obviously Lancel became more interesting over time. Tyrek is married to the baby Ermesande Hayford, so House Lannister can claim their lands. He then promptly disappears during the riot where the Hound rescues Sansa, the High Septon is murdered and Lollys is woefully mistreated.

It's suspected that Varys had something to do with the disappearance, mostly because he wasn't present to see off Myrcella to Dorne and because he remains inexplicably unaware of any leads as to Tyrek's whereabouts.

Why steal him though? He's the Lord of a Crownland house that's untouched by the war in AFFC, but that doesn't seem reason enough to kidnap him. Maybe it's a subplot, or maybe he's a hostage to be used later, but it seems strange that so much mention is made of him, Ermesande and the lordship over House Hayford when it doesn't really feature much in the narrative otherwise.

On that similar note, I always idly wonder whether Jalabhar Xho is going to get something to do in the narrative, or if he's merely set dressing for the King's Landing crew. I suspect the latter, but it would be pretty GRRM to make him the key to some twisty mystery somewhere down the line.
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby Marcuse » Mon Jul 18, 2016 12:06 am

Here's a madcap little detail. Why does Benjen Stark refer to Queensgate as Snowgate? Why in the same chapter we're told about Good Queen Alysanne?

For people who're not super up on her, she was a Targaryen Queen who flew up to the Wall on her dragon, ostensibly because she was bored while her husband spoke with his Warden of the North at Winterfell. There, several things happened from her visit:

1. The Night's Watch was "suggested" to be moved from the Nightfort to Deep Lake.
2. Snowgate was renamed to Queensgate
3. The lands of the New Gift were given to the Watch
4. The "Lord's right to the first night" was abolished

So, what's going on here? This stuff is mentioned by turns in the books here and there, in Bran's chapters in book 3 particularly, but point 4 was related in book 5 by Roose Bolton.

The thing here is that there's several seemingly disparate items at issue. The Night's Watch was moved, one of their castles was renamed, an entire swath of land was removed from Northern Lords and given to the Watch. The last one is the most intriguing though. The practice of the first night is something Roose goes into inexplicable detail about in book 5. Why do we need to know this at all? It's essentially that the liege lord of a lesser lord or vassal would have the right to sleep with his vassal's wives on the first night. That's a pretty fucked up practice, but Roose points out that the Boltons, Flints, Umbers and on Skagos they still do this kind of thing.

But why is this important? Well, lots of sex with people you're not married to causes one thing: lots of bastard children. Look back at the castle that was renamed, Snowgate, and ask yourself what people in the North call bastard children? Remember Bran's passage through the Nightfort? There was a secret door there, that could only be opened by a Black Brother and didn't allow unnatural creatures to pass. This has all the hallmarks of sacrifice.

But it doesn't stop there, we know from Craster that it's more or less common knowledge that sacrifices were made to the Others. The show explicitly depicts a baby boy being taken and converted into a White Walker. The story of the Night's King reinforces that this is essentially deep knowledge in Westeros: children are sacrificed to the Others in order to keep them away.

So what was Alysanne doing? She was removing the most Northernly vassals of the Lords, moving the Watch away from their secret sacrifice doors, and banning the mechanism by which the sacrifices were created.

So why is it important that Benjen is using the old term for Queensgate? Because it's increasingly apparent that the Rangers, if not the whole watch, were complicit at least or active at most in recanting these policies and engaging in sacrifice to the Others again. The Rangers were the ones who had contact with Craster, no doubt if Mance Rayder hadn't moved all the Wildlings into the Frostfangs there would have been evidence of more surreptitious arrangements with villages like Whitetree. It's entirely possible this was condoned by the leadership as a method of keeping the Others at bay by giving them what they want. At the very very least, members of the Watch have been facilitating or turning a blind eye to the practice of sacrificing children to ice demons because its convenient to them. Which is nice of them.
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby Malfeasinator » Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:11 am

Marcuse wrote:
Just look in the Appendix from the first book and you'll see who Dany's parents were. Aerys and Rhaella. Their brother was Rhaegar. That's why she's a child of three. He was much older but these things happen. Prince Aegon, who is with Jon Connington, is Dany's nephew, even though they're about the same age. That happens sometimes.


Just like Jon Snow is totally Ned Stark's bastard? The guides and appendices are useful guides for the beginning of each book, but they're out of date even by the end of the books they refer to. For example, the Stark one is in pieces by the end of book 3, so they're no more reliable than anything else.

Some of the facts about Dany's information about it don't make sense, and everyone else who was there is dead already. Ser Willem Darry, Viserys, any of the lost Targaryen household at the time, Rhaella. None of these people are alive to tell the tale and Dany has numerous gaps and inconsistencies in her memory.

Also, Aegon is totally a fake. Everything about him and his entourage screams fake.

Quentyn Martell surviving would be useless as a story mechanism, because he has failed his mission either way and has no more to do. But he clearly burned very badly.


I don't remember if I linked this before so I'll do it again.



There's a lot of inconsistencies about the circumstances of Quent's supposed death, along with a tone that continually tells us "burned bones mean nothing". The description of his burning is completely different from that of the Astapori slaver who was burned by Drogon, who died instantly. Events are confused, the account of the two companions is contradictory. A lot of it is missing, with the direct account missing when Quent is supposedly on fire.

I know there's a lot of details and stuff to keep track of, but there's no point looking for secret clues for what's going to happen next. Just wait it out like everyone else and enjoy the surprise.


I don't do it because I'm itching to know what happened next and it's causing me to worry. I'm just cruising through the books over again and enjoying picking out little details that I wouldn't have noticed on the first, second or third readings. This is just idle fun to me.


There's nothing to suggest Dany doesn't know at least the basic truths about her past. She lived in the house with the Red Door and was told all about her family from her brother and the guy that raised her for some time. Hell, she remembers the names of all the dragons her brother kept talking about; there's probably a lot more she knows that the story hasn't filled us in on. Barristen has been around and had plenty of time to answer her questions when the chapters weren't focused on her. There's nothing mysterious or confusing going on. Her parents just had kids at different times in their life. I have a family like this as well. My older brother is 41 and my youngest sister is 17.

There's no reason at all for Quentyn to be alive. Everything out of Dorne has been pretty stupid, disappointing and full of failure, and he's just one more example of that trend. Even if he is alive, Dany thinks he's an ugly frog boy anyway and wouldn't want anything to do with him, so he still would have no way to complete his quest. Best case scenario for him is to die having done something brave and foolish.

You assume Aegon is fake but there's really no reason to believe that, given the story. He's got the purple eyes. Substitute kid murder has already been established as something that happens from time to time. Unless Jon Connington has somehow managed to wrangle a Faceless One's services (for non-assassination purposes?), and let's face it - he doesn't have it "like that", then Aegon has to be real. Sure, it seems out of nowhere, and their efforts are certainly doomed to fail in hilarious ways, but that seems to make it more valid to me - that Connington would only make these real desperate moves if he really believed in Aegon. And why wouldn't he?
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby CarrieVS » Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:46 am

Malfeasinator wrote:You assume Aegon is fake but there's really no reason to believe that, given the story. He's got the purple eyes. Substitute kid murder has already been established as something that happens from time to time. Unless Jon Connington has somehow managed to wrangle a Faceless One's services (for non-assassination purposes?), and let's face it - he doesn't have it "like that", then Aegon has to be real. Sure, it seems out of nowhere, and their efforts are certainly doomed to fail in hilarious ways, but that seems to make it more valid to me - that Connington would only make these real desperate moves if he really believed in Aegon. And why wouldn't he?


Plenty of families besides the Targaryens have Valyrian blood and the accompanying tendency to white hair and purple eyes. (Notably the Daynes, and one of my wilder theories was that Ashara and Ned's baby was not actually stillborn, which has the pleasing symmetry, if R+L=J, that the boy beleived to be Ned's son is Rhaegar's and the boy beleived to be Rhaegar's son is Ned's.)

I'm 110% certain that Connington believes in Aegon, but that doesn't mean Aegon is real. Connington is Varys' piece in the game just as Aegon, real or otherwise, is. All that's needed is for Varys to successfully convince Connington - who probably wanted desperately to beleive it and wouldn't need much more proof than white hair and purple eyes before he allowed himself to be convinced.

Substitute kid murder is certainly not a new or unbelievable thing in this story, but neither is a living substitute kid.

in the show
Aegon doesn't exist. It's true that the show and books are increasingly different, but if Aegon was genuine that would be a pretty immense difference. I guess it's possible he's genuine but his invasion comes to nothing and he dies without ever proving his legitimacy, and that plotline is simply omitted from the show.
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby Marcuse » Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:18 pm

You assume Aegon is fake but there's really no reason to believe that, given the story. He's got the purple eyes. Substitute kid murder has already been established as something that happens from time to time. Unless Jon Connington has somehow managed to wrangle a Faceless One's services (for non-assassination purposes?), and let's face it - he doesn't have it "like that", then Aegon has to be real. Sure, it seems out of nowhere, and their efforts are certainly doomed to fail in hilarious ways, but that seems to make it more valid to me - that Connington would only make these real desperate moves if he really believed in Aegon. And why wouldn't he?


Carrie is absolutely correct that Valyrian features are far, far, far from uncommon throughout the former colonies of the Valyrian Freehold. Lys in particular is noted for possessing strongly Valyrian features. The question of Aegon's lineage is that he's a member of House Targaryen. Specifically, that he's a specific member of House Targaryen who is the son of Rhaegar and a claimant to the throne.

But lets look at his companions. Jon Connington believes in Aegon, sure, but what reason does he have to believe that other than his feeling that he failed Rhaegar and wants to do better for his son? Really that could just as easily suggest that he's been misinformed that Aegon is real entirely because it's powerful motivation to protect him and promote Varys' interests.

But look at the other followers. The Golden Company have been the home of bastard pretenders to the throne of Westeros since their inception. It's populated by dispossessed houses that are introduced as people trying to return home. Their leader is even known as "Homeless Harry", to hammer the point in. These people are strongly influenced to return to specifically Westeros, and it's extremely convenient that they're engaged in the Targaryen Reconquista under Aegon when that's what they already wanted to do.

But really, this plays into the opinion Varys expresses that power resides where men think it does. It doesn't, fundamentally, matter if Aegon is the trueborn heir of Rhaegar, or a likely babe stolen from Pisswater Bend. He's been raised as a King and he acts like a King, and that's both very Varys and also a strong indication of why Aegon is likely to be faked. It's also exceptionally convenient that Aegon has a better claim to the throne than Dany, being a male child of Aerys' eldest child. This all plays right into Martin's modus operandi of telling a story of how feudalism is ridiculous.

Spoiler: show
Of course, Carrie is also entirely correct that the complete omission of the Aegon plot in the show suggests that Aegon isn't real and the plot goes nowhere, except to maybe be a million times more plausible way for Dorne and Highgarden to arrange loyalty to House Targaryen again without travelling to Slaver's Bay.


There's nothing to suggest Dany doesn't know at least the basic truths about her past. She lived in the house with the Red Door and was told all about her family from her brother and the guy that raised her for some time. Hell, she remembers the names of all the dragons her brother kept talking about; there's probably a lot more she knows that the story hasn't filled us in on


There absolutely is. The "Usurper's Hired Knives" are a massive glaring example of where Dany's knowledge of events does not match reality at all. We know from book one that Jon Arryn strongly counselled Robert against attempting to kill Viserys and Dany and Robert bitterly complains that they'd gone out of his reach before he even tried sending someone to kill them. Dany's only encounters with assassins are after this discussion, when the choice is taken to try to have Dany killed based on Jorah's information. However, Dany repeatedly talks about or remembers running from "the Usurper's Hired Knives". Now either they're running from other assassins, or there were no assassins and Viserys was lying to her. One or the other. Either way, her recollection of her past is incomplete. Her memory of a lemon tree in Braavos is categorically infeasible, and the revelation of Arianne's secret betrothal to Viserys suggests a much stronger likelihood she was in Dorne at the time, possibly around the time Oberyn tried to raise Dorne for...Viserys. Interestingly, Jon Arryn was the guy who defused that problem as well.

Sadly, a lot of the pov characters for these events are now dead. It's a device used to keep us from categorical information about the situation, but it does suggest that Dany's early life was not spent running from Robert's men, but for some other reason.
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby CarrieVS » Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:53 pm

Marcuse wrote:Dany repeatedly talks about or remembers running from "the Usurper's Hired Knives". Now either they're running from other assassins, or there were no assassins and Viserys was lying to her.


Or there were no assassins but Viserys assumed there would be and/or read too much into simple coincidences. I read it as a paranoid Viserys constantly moving them on and hiding them, unaware that his fears were pretty much groundless. Dany simply assumes her older brother knows what he's doing.
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby Marcuse » Fri Jul 22, 2016 1:21 pm

CarrieVS wrote:
Marcuse wrote:Dany repeatedly talks about or remembers running from "the Usurper's Hired Knives". Now either they're running from other assassins, or there were no assassins and Viserys was lying to her.


Or there were no assassins but Viserys assumed there would be and/or read too much into simple coincidences. I read it as a paranoid Viserys constantly moving them on and hiding them, unaware that his fears were pretty much groundless. Dany simply assumes her older brother knows what he's doing.


Sure, but that still ensures that Viserys' information is unreliable at best.
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby CarrieVS » Fri Jul 22, 2016 1:51 pm

Sure, but he surely couldn't have been fooled into thinking that Dorne was Braavos, so if he wasn't lying, they were in Braavos.
I don't agree that the lemon tree is a deal-breaker, I don't think we know enough to say that it's impossible to cultivate an exotic plant there at all - and that's if it wasn't a slip-up on Martin's part. That part was written before we ever saw Braavos and it could be before he decided to make it chilly. He seems to have a thing about lemons. And the place is based on Venice, which has a Mediterranean climate, so it would hardly be unexpected for him to have originally pictured it warm.
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby Marcuse » Fri Jul 22, 2016 4:59 pm

CarrieVS wrote:Sure, but he surely couldn't have been fooled into thinking that Dorne was Braavos, so if he wasn't lying, they were in Braavos.
I don't agree that the lemon tree is a deal-breaker, I don't think we know enough to say that it's impossible to cultivate an exotic plant there at all - and that's if it wasn't a slip-up on Martin's part. That part was written before we ever saw Braavos and it could be before he decided to make it chilly. He seems to have a thing about lemons. And the place is based on Venice, which has a Mediterranean climate, so it would hardly be unexpected for him to have originally pictured it warm.


Lemon trees don't produce fruit unless it's hot. They go dormant below 13 degree celcius and lemons are the most temperature sensitive citrus fruit there is. Keep in mind that Planetos presumably doesn't have frost resistant strains of lemon tree. They also prefer soil with good drainage, which would probably preclude a waterlogged city.
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby cmsellers » Fri Jul 22, 2016 5:07 pm


I'm sorry; I resisted as long as I could.
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby Anglerphobe » Fri Jul 22, 2016 6:39 pm

It seems very unlike G.R.R Martin to fail in providing us robust long term average climate figures for locations in his universe, but I suppose it does help the uncertainty of the matter and therefore adds suspense. Good game, George.
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby CarrieVS » Fri Jul 22, 2016 7:27 pm

I just don't buy the theory. It makes far more sense to me that GRRM hadn't thought that hard about Braavos that early on in the book, well before any chapter set there, and had assumed he was going to depict it with a warm climate like the city it's based on. And that's assuming Martin both knew and cared about whether it was appropriate to the climate - it would not be the only scientifically inaccurate thing in the books.

I agree it's a bit of a plothole, but plotholes are author mistakes as often as they're clues that all is not as it seems. This one has the feel of a mistake to me, but I'll consume corvid with good grace if it turns out you're right.
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire Book 6 Speculation: SPOILERS

Postby Malfeasinator » Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:50 pm

Alright, assume Aegon is fake: it doesn't matter. He doesn't have enough supporters and Connington is still going to fail miserably and get the poor kid killed. Winter is almost here, people are tired of war, resources are running desperately thin, and his aunt has enough guys chasing her skirt as it is that she certainly isn't going to want to do anything with him. Plus, everybody at Mereen is about to die burning, die drowning, or die from the bloody shits. So there's that.

The lemon tree thing is also not a big deal. Lemon trees weren't native to Florida, either. Citrus trees in Florida can survive some bouts of below freezing weather and still produce fruit later on. I lived in an area for over a decade that had no problem with citrus growing, even though we sometimes got snow. We had a lot of wild sour oranges growing on their own that people would sometimes use as rootstock for other plants. I'm sure Martin's world has something like grafting going on. *slight edit: we're talking about a world where horses have been bred that are big enough for THE MOUNTAIN to ride on - I don't think some clever plant breeding is too far out of the question.

I don't take anything that's in the show to be a sign of what is or isn't true in the books. The show is basically fan fiction at this point. Season 6 had elements of books 4, 5, and after book 5, running simultaneously. It leaves out a lot of characters and introduces new ones. It has events that didn't happen in the books, for shock value in the show. Different people are alive in the show and dead in the books, and vice versa. If they kept things true to the books, Joffrey would have died at the end of Season 3. Then there's all this Night King business. What's up with that?

I think Dany, in some ways, in a lot of ways, just has to die. She's way too much trouble. Even if she somehow leads people back to Westeros, she's going to bring disease and misery with her. It never even dawned on anyone to try anything like a freaking quarantine. Not just her, though. All the royalty. All the heads of the noble houses.

I'd be a lot more interested to see what happens if the "small folk" rise up and overthrow the whole monarchy system, dragons and ice zombies be damned. Nobody has the peoples' best interests at heart, they're just in it for themselves. The Hound was right when he said it's strong arms and steel that rule the world, and the people need to strengthen their arms and get hold of some steel and take it back.
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